Luke Earthcrawler

5.4K posts

Luke Earthcrawler

Luke Earthcrawler

@LEarthcrawler

Professional cynicist. In my free time I'm a physicist.

Middle of Nowhere Katılım Nisan 2023
177 Takip Edilen281 Takipçiler
Barth Tharm
Barth Tharm@BarthTharm·
@DavidBCollum Can't believe Russia and China haven't made their displeasure even more evident.
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Dave Collum
Dave Collum@DavidBCollum·
Just a thought: Iran shows that it can send the global economy into a bridge abutment. Next time some small country in the Middle East decides to attack Iran, they get stopped cold by every other country in the world. Problem solved for Iran.
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Luke Earthcrawler
Luke Earthcrawler@LEarthcrawler·
Agreed. This war shows missiles and cheap drones are a much, much better deterrent than nukes. Nukes you can't use w/o becoming the world's pariah for a generation or two. You'd be as popular as a guy with explosive diarrhea in a movie theater. But missiles and drones? Perfect for regional MAD: mutual assured destruction. "Oh, you want to send us back economically? Guess who lives in the desert, bitches. There goes your money making oil/gas terminals. Then there goes your energy hubs and your desalination plants. Oil production gone, tourism gone. Enjoy the summer, you dolts!" It's a pretty effective strategy. Tehran has summer days in the low to mid 90s (F). The average afternoon temps in Riyadh, Doha, Abu Dhabi? Try 110 F. To paraphrase Game of Thrones: Summer is Coming.
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Luke Earthcrawler
Luke Earthcrawler@LEarthcrawler·
@BBX_Now Desert dwellers fighting in Iran's mountains? Good luck with that.
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🏴‍☠️
🏴‍☠️@calvinfroedge·
Anyone pricing in a 20% Volcker rate following Iran driving down metals doesn't understand that the US had a 31% debt to GDP ratio in 1979 It's more than 4x higher today 4% long term rates bankrupts America 20% does it practically overnight Don't sell your metals
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Luke Earthcrawler
Luke Earthcrawler@LEarthcrawler·
Wars are inflationary. Always had been, always will be. The US just asked for $200Bn extra for the war. This will all be printed. If we go into a global recession, expect central banks to print a shit ton of liquidity and flood the markets. Ultimately, this is very bullish for gold. In March 2008 when Bear Stern collapsed, gold was $1,000. In September 2008 when Lehman collapsed, gold was $780. By 2012, it went up to $1800. I'm sticking with $6000-7000 gold by 2027-2028.
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Jack Prandelli
Jack Prandelli@jackprandelli·
Gold is selling off During a war. With oil at $100+ Confusing? Here's why 🔴 Fed stays hawkish energy inflation = no cuts 🔴 Real yields rising = headwind for non-yielding gold 🔴 Dollar strengthening = gold under pressure 🔴 Crowded longs unwinding = technical flush below 50-day MA Every time equities dropped since the war began, investors sold gold to raise liquidity. The ultimate hedge. Being sold to cover losses elsewhere. This isn't a collapse in gold's long-term thesis. It's a crowded trade getting washed out. War and $100 oil are bullish for gold. But right now the tape doesn't care about theory. It cares about margin calls. 📉 The long-term store of value case is intact. The short-term chart is ugly. Know the difference. ♟️ #gold
Jack Prandelli tweet media
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Lozzy B 🇦🇺𝕏
Lozzy B 🇦🇺𝕏@TruthFairy131·
🔥 BREAKING 🔥 China has suspended fertiliser exports while farmers in the United States & Australia face shortages. The Chinese government has instructed exporters to halt all overseas shipments of fertiliser blends. Australia imports the majority of its fertiliser- roughly 70-75% of ammonium phosphate & nearly all of its urea primarily from the Middle East, China & Southeast Asia. This is extremely serious.
Lozzy B 🇦🇺𝕏 tweet media
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Luke Earthcrawler
Luke Earthcrawler@LEarthcrawler·
I'm sure we'll get podiums by the summer break. McLaren said they know the car's limitations and have a plan to address them. As a non-works team, they have a bit more to learn how to optimize the new engine compared to the works teams. I'm not worried at all. This period is also useful to shore up Lando and Oscar's relationship if there were any tensions left from the last two years. W/o a championship winning car, I'm sure both will work very well together to make the car better. As a lifelong McLaren fan, I'm very positive and happy where the team is now. The same organization that won two back to back championships is there. We'll be fine.
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LawVS
LawVS@LawVSX·
@LEarthcrawler I'm sure they will but I would say that them KNOWING they can be top 5 makes it even more galling. After all these years of development, they've got a system which is laughing in their face. Back in '23, they knew it would get better in time.
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LawVS
LawVS@LawVSX·
McLaren's start to #F1 2026 feels very similar to 2023...perhaps even worse? The MCL40 is a fussy beast. It and Ferrari's "tomato rules" with Lewis/Charles, Haas nailing the #Formula1 season AND Aston Martin completing more race laps than McL just adds to the pain. #FormulaOne
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Yavanika Shah
Yavanika Shah@yavanikashah·
Hot take as a woman who actually has really wholesome female friendships: male friendships are kind of… insane. two men can hang out for 4 hours, say maybe 17 total words, share a bag of chips, send each other one stupid reel, and go home like “great catching up bro.” no emotional recap. no post-hangout analysis. no “did I say something weird when I laughed?” they can go 6 months without talking, then meet again and immediately pick up the exact same joke from 2017. women meanwhile will do a full psychological autopsy on a slightly delayed reply. I’m not even judging. I’m just observing a level of emotional minimalism that feels both deeply confusing and… kind of powerful.
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Luke Earthcrawler
Luke Earthcrawler@LEarthcrawler·
@LawVSX @adstppn My guess is the regs make teammate gaps tiny this year. I think we'll see at least in some top teams frayed relationships. Charles and Lewis are both so hungry, I'm willing to bet a good sum of money we'll see their relationship go south before the summer break.
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LawVS
LawVS@LawVSX·
@adstppn If Kimi proves to be a thorn in George's side this year, this is the defining photo.
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エイダ | ada!!
エイダ | ada!!@adstppn·
THIS CARTOONISHLY EVIL LOOK IM FUCKING CRYINGGGGGH
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Chef 👩🏻‍🍳
Chef 👩🏻‍🍳@chefsevenn·
Is… is there anyone who actually likes olives? Are we sure those people exist? Who buys olives to consume? I demand you reveal yourselves 🫒
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Luke Earthcrawler
Luke Earthcrawler@LEarthcrawler·
@DavidBCollum @jeffreytucker The fact that these two evil bastards are Jewish is a complete, 100% coincidence. Yes, I'm pulling a Tom Luongo "City of London" card here. After 100 coincidences, I reached my "What a coincidence?" limit.
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Sundaram R
Sundaram R@f1statsguru·
🚨 NEW (UNWANTED) RECORD 🚨 Qualifying P13 in China, Esteban Ocon now holds the record for the most Grands Prix in Formula 1 history without ever qualifying on pole position. 182 - Esteban Ocon 181 - Romain Grosjean
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Luke Earthcrawler
Luke Earthcrawler@LEarthcrawler·
That's Bill's eco guilt trip talking. I have no qualms whatsoever going to a gas station. We live in a small college town. My commute is 4 miles one way, so we drive very little. An eV would work fine for us, but I don't need a $40k car. For such a short commute, a small 8yr old ICE sedan is absolutely perfect. I like cars, but I don't overpay for them.
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Sawyer Merritt
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt·
Former Goldman Sachs CEO tonight on EVs with Bill Maher: Bill: "Once you have one (EV) it seems barbaric to go to a gas station." Lloyd: "I want to get into a car, know I can drive 300 miles and don't have to have my fingers crossed that I can recharge it and don't have it take 2 hours." Bill: "Lloyd, mine goes 360 (miles)."
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Michael Tubbs
Michael Tubbs@Michael_Tubbs·
@NightSkyToday Quantum entanglement could be the proof that our thoughts are heard by a greater observer.
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Night Sky Today
Night Sky Today@NightSkyToday·
How does a photon know it’s being observed?
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