Luke Earthcrawler
5.8K posts

Luke Earthcrawler
@LEarthcrawler
Professional cynicist. In my free time I'm a physicist.
Middle of Nowhere Katılım Nisan 2023
192 Takip Edilen322 Takipçiler

@Unfrozen_Studio Congratulations! This is well deserved. You've done an amazing job. As far as I'm concerned, Olden Era is the best installment since HoMM3. Looking forward to see where the game goes in future DLCs.
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Greetings everyone!
We are now a month into the Early Access of HoMM: Olden Era during which we’ve got to see you explore Jadame in every way imaginable! However, there's something you have done that has completely blown us away:
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era has already sold over 1 000 000 copies on Steam!
This means that so many of you have purchased the game that you would effectively form a massive island nation — impressive!
Here's what you, our community, have managed to achieve on top of that:
Since the game's launch you’ve posted nearly 17 000 reviews and over 33 000 of you have joined us on Discord. You also continue to support us in every way you can on all social media and in the game so thank you for that!
Thanks to all of that, we were able to align our roadmap to your needs and feedback! We will continue to prove that Olden Era is not just another Heroes game, but a return to greatness you’ve all been asking for!
As we continue exploring Jadame together, your feedback will be our greatest resource. Every review and bug report helps us to improve all aspects of the game and deal with all the issues you come across. Believe it or not, we read every single one of your messages and reviews and will continue to do so.
Additionally, we published the roadmap earlier today, which you can read more about here: store.steampowered.com/news/app/31054…
Thank you for your support and patience! May you always find the best Pandora Boxes!
With love,
Unfrozen 💙
GIF
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@DeItaone You mean the guy whose immediate family we assassinated two months ago is a bit intransigent and not very cooperative? I'm shocked, I tell you.
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IRAN–U.S. DEAL REPORTEDLY BLOCKED AT TOP LEVELS
A source cited by i24NEWS claims that while an agreement was reached between Iranian negotiator Araghchi and the U.S. team led by Witkoff, it has not been approved by Iran’s senior leadership.
According to the report, Mojtaba Khamenei did not give approval, which may also be a factor in why President Trump has not given final consent.
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@jonospect @KobeissiLetter He should appear on Israel's bank notes, not on the USD.
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@KobeissiLetter That's interesting to know. He deserves every inch of it. Moreover, he's celebrating the country 250 years of freedom in his time
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At least they worked on it. Last time I took the car to our local stealership I paid for a comprehensive maintenance package that included comprehensive inspection, oil filter and oil change, fluids top off, plus tire rotation. Guess what? They didn't do the tire rotation, the brake pad inspection or topping off fluids. I know this because I had a low tire pressure in the rear right tire as I took the car in. I didn't bother to inflate the thing as I thought the stealership would do it. Nope! As I drove away, the same tire pressures on all four wheels. No tire rotation or brake pads inspection. Scumbags. I left them a suitable low review online and they wrote me asking to take the review down and bring the car in again so they can fix things. I told them to fuck off. They're not touching my car ever again.
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@StealthQE4 Bro I had a mechanic shop just put the wrong throttle body in my car, I bring it back they put a new one (also wrong), and now I have the car at the dealership for them to fix it. So it’s not only the payments, the whole mechanic system is cooked too
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I think the end of the AI boom is closer than most people think. Here's a few P/FCF ratio for the big players:
Google: 72
Nvidia: 44
Microsoft: 43
AMD: 97
Oracle: N/A, as their FCF is negative
TSMC: 56
This means all of them have horrible capital returns. A stupid US10Y treasury returns 4.4%. The AI space? 2.2%. In fact, putting $100 in any one of these companies will not generate enough FCF to cover inflation. Yes, they're building data centers, but their capex investments have a useful lifetime that is MUCH smaller compared to a gold mine lifetime. Nvidia's chips become obsolete in 5 years, if that.
If you look at the market cap of the entire AI/big compute space, you come up with something like $25-30T. This means this blob of AI companies needs to generate $2-3T a year in FCF to justify such valuations. Problem? The 2026 revenues for this space is $1-2T, with a decent chunk being circular accounting. Not FCF, revenue. FCF? Try $200B. So they're off by an order of magnitude. The only way you can make the numbers to work on a forward, sustainable basis is to assume the AI space will become something like 10% of the world's GDP. For comparison, the global automotive industry and this AI space are each 1% of global GDP as of 2026.
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Mid-Week Macro
The S&P 500 continues to roar, reaching another ATH today at 7520. The bullishness on Wall Street has become so extreme that gold and silver have been languishing. Gold closed today under $4500 at $4432 and is now down 21% from its ATH in January. Silver closed at $73.81, and is down 39% from its ATH in January. The HUI closed at 732, and is down 25%. The gold/silver bull is clearly bucking, with many posers exiting their positions.
The AI trade clearly has the momentum at the moment, and gold/silver are taking a backseat. That will likely remain the situation in the near term. I always expected a lower low for gold and silver in Q3, so this correction is just early. In fact, my expected next cycle lows remain $4200 to $4400 for gold and $58 to $68 for silver. So, the next run will likely be a false breakout, unless we reach breakout levels of $5,000 for gold and $92 for silver.
Until gold exceeds the S&P 500, I will remain bearish, expecting more deep corrections. We need the gold/S&P 500 ratio to reach .8 to start getting excited ($5,000 / 6200 = .8). Until then, we can build our portfolios and stack shares. Now is a good time to stack, with many miners trading near or below their 200 DMAs. At those levels, we won’t be buying a deep knife cut. I doubt the miners will drop 20% from here, and 10% is more likely, which is a nothing-burger for miners.
The war in Iran is winding down. Iran has the upper hand by controlling the Strait, and I doubt that Trump has the will or patience to force it open. He knows that even if he tries to force it open (with ground troops), he might fail. The risk is too high. He has no other choice than to walk away. Right now, he is just bluffing, trying to get the best deal possible. It’s going to be an ugly deal (or no deal), with Iran in control of the Strait.
As the war ends, the S&P is going higher, as will gold and silver. Then we wait to see what comes next in August and September, leading up to the midterms, where Trump likely becomes a lame duck, and Congress becomes gridlocked.
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FCF of $232m this quarter. How the hell is this company worth $82.5B exactly?
Do people care about profitability and return on capital anymore? Surely a NTM P/FCF of 90 is too much.
Think about it: you put $100 in $SNOW and after one year it generates $1.11 in FCF for you when (a) inflation is 3.8% and a 10Y US treasury returns $4.4, or 4 times as much.
The earnings of $SNOW need to quadruple to justify its current valuation. Problem: Wall Street thinks by 2028 $SNOW will only double its earnings. So relative to inflation and a 10Y US treasury $SNOW WILL lose you money until 2029 even if they execute everything properly.
This market is utterly insane.
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@RonStoeferle For many people, even if their 401ks are doing okay, if they're: (a) not close to retirement and (b) worried about job security, it makes sense to have low sentiment.
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@dividendology I don't care about any non-GAAP "earnings". Show me FCF multiples. These companies use very creative accounting tricks to boost the earnings numbers.
P/FCF or I'm not interested.
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Their FCF in the last quarter was $6.9B, meaning the market is valuing this company at 36.6 times FCF or 2.7% yield. Official inflation being 3.8%, putting $100 in MU is a guarantee you will lose money.
Wall Street sees MU's earnings to double in 2027. Even if they do, at the current valuation, MU's FCF multiple will be 18x. Basically a US 10yr treasury. This market has lost any common sense.
Meanwhile, Newmont is trading at a respectable 10x FCF and Wall Street is "Meh..."..
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@DrewHLive Neocons 2.0 will always neocon. They're fucking insane.
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@DropSiteNews I think we should raise voting age to 35.
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Glenn Greenwald asks a young MAGA Trump supporter why he believes the Iranian people support the U.S.-Israeli bombing of their country. The Trump supporter argues there have been no pro-government demonstrations in Iran since the war began.
Iranian state media, as well as reporting and footage from Western journalists, have documented massive nightly pro-government demonstrations across various Iranian cities since the war began.
Source: @jubileemedia w/ @ggreenwald
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@GazzettaFerrari As a McLaren fan, I have no dog in this fight, but I'm thrilled to see Lewis and Max being so cordial. Two legends of the sport. Wonderful to see.
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@cturnbull1968 What a stupid take. How are they 95% done when the nuclear issue isn't solved? The entire reason to start this idiotic war was Iran's nuclear program.
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@GOP__Ls And yet he has achieved more than any president in American history.
Success isn't free.
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@GOP__Ls That's not how government works. It is Congress that appropriates the money.
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@Pirat_Nation At $480, this is a very hard pass.
My 3yr old AMD RX 6800 XT with 16 GB of RAM bought for $515 is 50% faster than this GPU.
An Intel Arc B580 that is on par with the RX 4060 sells for $300 and it also has 12 GB of RAM.
This card is not even close to be a good buy.
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China’s new gaming GPU, the Lisuan LX 7G100, officially launched and sold out on the first day with around 30,000 pre-orders.
The graphics card comes with:
>12 GB GDDR6 memory
>6 nm manufacturing process
>DirectX 12 support
>Microsoft WHQL-certified drivers for modern Windows games
In gaming tests, the LX 7G100 performs below NVIDIA’s RTX 4060, usually by 20% to 70% depending on the game.
Priced at about $480, many consider it expensive for its performance.
Although it does not yet compete with NVIDIA or AMD at the high end, the LX 7G100 marks an important step for China’s domestic graphics card industry.

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@ClownWorld Keeping alive the stereotype that only assholes drive Audis.
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Woman parks her Audi like an absolute asshole, taking up extra space on purpose so nobody can park next to her.
Then gets mad when someone leaves a note calling her out: “Learn to Park Fuckin Idiot.”
She films herself bragging that she did it on purpose and roasting their handwriting.
Peak main character syndrome.
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