Bob Sheehan, CFA, CMT

I still love this chart of Japan & China's 30yr Yields. It's like the bond market giving an an entire economic theses on the massive structural changes occuring for 2 of Asia's most powerful nations, as they attempt to undo & shutter the failed policies of recent past. But instead of words it's just two lines.

🇺🇸 Banks tightened standards for corporate loans, while leaving commercial real estate and household lending standards roughly unchanged.

Term premium is roughly 70bps. The framework says 150bps. May 6 doesn't move the destination. It sets the pace. What we're watching at the QRA, and what would invalidate the call. research.lighthousemacro.com/p/the-honest-l…

10Y at 4.37%. Nominal GDP up 6% YoY. Even on the much hotter 5-year trail (carrying COVID rebound + 2022 inflation), yields run ~330bp below growth. Post-Volcker, yields tracked NGDP. Today’s gap is the widest since the early 80s.

Housing starts and residential investment have tracked each other for 65 years. Both rolled over from the 2021 peak. Starts have stabilized at 1.42M. Resi investment share keeps drifting lower at 3.7% of GDP. Housing continues to be stuck.

@Marcomadness2 @LighthouseMacro thanks for sharing! adds to the bear steepener case. something we’re certainly watching and not a big deal but i’m actually still trying to get the @LighthouseMacro account for myself but @premium is giving me a hard time so i’m still @LHMacro for now!

Yields vs. GDP: something's gotta give h/t @LighthouseMacro

Government spending share at 17% of GDP. UNRATE at 4.3%. Both bottomed in 2022 and stalled there. Counter-cyclical would have them falling together in expansion. Fiscal hasn’t normalized for the labor backdrop.

Same story, different lens. Federal debt holding above 120% of GDP. Real gold has more than doubled since 2018. When yields don’t compensate for nominal growth, capital finds the next-best store of value.

Me thinks the sensei has too big of an ego himself. Throwing that word around an awful lot for somebody who misread a tweet and then proceeded to be an asshole. And once again, you are literally talking about a different thing than I am because you want to seem smart. Goodbye egoboy. Learn how to read.

@LHMacro Drop the ego chief. You don't understand the problem it it solving, you can repeat yourself but that just makes it more egoarted.

If you conflate crypto and Bitcoin, you understand neither. You call it" Economic Intellegince", but it's just ego. Financial Boomer.

@BitcoinSensei4U Take a look and see if I’m in the Bitcoin report or the Bitcoin Sensei is. I think you’ll find that it’s me. Good luck being a geniuinely bad person for the rest of your life. Do it far away from me.

@SirTobi718158 That’s a fundamentally different thing than buying groceries with bitcoin. I am talking about the latter.

@LHMacro Are you kidding. Bitcoin ETFs are the fastest growing ETFs in the stock market history. People clearly want it.

Is it insane of me to think that bitcoins utility starts & ends with introducing the world to Crypto/DeFi and that the chance of it ever being adopted as the ‘Money Du Jour’ for all human globally is infinitesimal?? The argument has been made. People don’t want it.

It’s amazing that you literally cannot read. Because you are literally not talking about the same thing I was tweeting about. And then you took that and told to me to cope, said I have an ego, and called me a r*. Because I don’t think I am going to have to buy my groceries with bitcoin. Shitty person and can’t read. I can imagine life is hard for you.

@LHMacro You studied Bitcoin so hard that you don't even understand the problem it is solving. Or you did, and you are retarded. Could be both.

That’s like saying my choice to use 5 $1 bills or a $5 is ego. Literally what are you talking about. I don’t give a single flying fuck what I pay for my groceries with so long as they accept it at the grocery store & the amount of food I can purchase is the same when I leave my apartment and when I am actually checking out. That thought process made you think “wow what a huge ego” lmfao

@BitcoinSensei4U You’re upset that a complete stranger doesn’t believe that the entire human race will be forced to use bitcoin for every single transaction on earth. That is hilarious. Thank you for this start to my Saturday. Coffee and comedy.

Same story from the deficit side. Federal balance at -5.3% with UNRATE at 4.3%. Tight labor running five-handle deficits is procyclical fiscal. 1964 and 2016 looked like this. Recession followed both.

Yeah I’ll take two slices and a coke here’s my Bitcoin ETF