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Just wrote an article on the Yield Curve and its infamous recession predictions.
I really enjoyed writing this one...one of the articles I am most proud of:
open.substack.com/pub/thebitcoin…
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Augustine Carrasco
2.9K posts
LOL....these edits always crack me up
Pleometric@pleometric
best part form Powell's last FOMC 😂 unc still got it ❤️🩹
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☝️☝️☝️☝️
Johan Bergman@JohanMBergman
Around this time one year ago, I started writing for @thebitcoinlayer. What a journey it has been! I'm blessed to have a mentor like @timevalueofbtc, who has a ton of knowledge and is able to explain and teach difficult topics to me and others. @AugustineCarrB is a great colleague who is becoming a true friend over time, and @demianschatt is upcoming talent with great potential and a powerful 'can-do' mentality. Grateful to be part of this team 🙏 Together we've built the latest addition to our service, TBL Pulse, a great place for bitcoin and liquidity data. Included for TBL Pro members and also available as a standalone service. We're doing a free webinar on May 6th at 11am PT. Get involved 👇 t.co/lsl1R0DFfc
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Augustine Carrasco retweetledi
Before the new year, we noted that diversification from concentrated AI exposure in US equities (as well as expected sideways movement in US Treasuries) was becoming a scarce quality across assets.
As the chart shows, that quality has become even scarcer. Most assets have shifted up and to the right, meaning they are now moving in greater tandem with both US equities and Treasuries.
Three assets stand out: gold, the dollar, and Brent crude.
Gold's correlation with Treasuries swung from -25% to +25%. Brent's correlations with the S&P 500 and Treasuries plummeted to -35% and -40%, respectively. And the dollar's correlation with Treasury prices has normalized back into negative territory (meaning its correlation with yields has turned positive again).
While most assets became more correlated, the dollar and Brent have proven to be the strongest equity and Treasury diversifiers so far this year.
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Whether you’re a fan of the largest sovereign debt market in the world or a simple macro reader, you’ve likely heard the term “Treasury Buybacks.” But why exactly do they exist? I wrote about it all here.
open.substack.com/pub/augustinec…
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"And as we let our own light shine, we unconsciously give other people permission to do the same."
Nik Bhatia@timevalueofbtc
My policy recommendations have reached the White House and Treasury Department! From a lowly T-Bill trader to advising the country’s leadership on reshaping the global dollar system. SKY’S THE LIMIT! BELIEVE IN YOURSELF! COUNT YOUR BLESSINGS!
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This M2 chart going around is silly...
If I have 2 apples and buy 1 more, my apple supply increases by 50%
If my friend has 20 apples and buys 1 more, his apple supply increases by 5%
50% > 5% ≠ me buy more apples...
Mario Zelaya@mario4thenorth
🚨 LOOK AT THIS CHART Money supply (M2) growth since 1968: 🇨🇦 Canada: 10,784% 🇩🇪 Germany: 6,273% 🇨🇳 China: 5,844% 🇺🇸 United States: 4,155% 🇯🇵 Japan: 3,811% Canada printed more money than every major economy on earth. Every other country started levelling off. Canada’s line goes VERTICAL. This is why your dollar is worthless. This is why homes cost $1 million. This is why groceries doubled. This is why food bank visits hit 2.2 million. This is why your savings buy less every single year. It’s not “global inflation.” It’s a printing press that never stopped. IT’S THE CANADIAN PESO. The government devalued YOUR MONEY to fund spending it couldn’t afford.
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@timevalueofbtc We are literally seeing tech democratize in real time.
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"NOW THE MOTHERFUCKER WORKS
WHAT THE FUCK CLAUDE"
one by one, people will feel the power
unprecedented times
Riley Coyote@RileyRalmuto
slowly but surely, this is going to be the experience and expressed sentiment of virtually every human being with a shred of ambition. and they’ll all start waking up and we’re all going to be watching with popcorn. we’re still so early, chat. somehow.
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Excellent work from Pascal!
High signal report 🔥🔥🔥
Pahueg (Less Noise More Signal)@pahueg
New LNMS report just dropped! Topic: What is REALLY driving the Bitcoin price? This question seems more important than ever! Download the report now: lessnoise-moresignal.com/report A huge thank you to all the contributors @timevalueofbtc @AugustineCarrB @LHMacro @JoeConsorti @PermabullNino @gxselby @ColeGarnersTake @krugermacro @OnChainMind @JustDeauIt @nodi_macro Please consider retweeting if you like it!
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@claudeai You guys are great and all, and maybe I'm missing something, but surely you guys are thinking about a way to toggle back and forth between a two different accounts.
For example, a personal versus a work account. Having to sign in and out is a pain
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I'm sorry, but Carney's charisma is kind of untouchable right now...
Mackenzie Gray@Gray_Mackenzie
Mark Carney just spoke in Japanese during his remarks with the Japanese PM, who was very excited he busted it out. As per PMO, Carney learned some Japanese when he worked for Goldman Sachs and he lived here 30 years ago #cdnpoli
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@CanadianPolling Strategically, for Liberals, I get the sense that it would be too risky (and early), despite Carney’s favourable poll positioning. Holding elections during the Trump 2.0 media monopoly and its volatile political winds means loss/gain of support from one second to the next.
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Do you think there should be an early federal election this year? 🔴🔵
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@BlacklionCTA @Dcpcooks Relatively strong ECO, higher tax season refunds (?), and inflation expectations (alongside Fed’s favorite metric PCE above target) are perhaps more dominant factors here than the ‘flight to safety’ bet? I get the sense markets are fairly bullish on US/Israel ending this soon 🤷🏻
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If I told you on Feb 27th the following day we would begin our adventure in Iran, would you have expected this from the yield curve? Not me. Check @Dcpcooks latest stack for his thoughts.
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…I don’t think I have the ability to understand just how insanely stupid this is getting.
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@ericwallerstein Been thinking the same thing. You can only reinvent the wheel so many times before every dashboard known to man is created, and you’d be better off just paying a few bucks for what you need than to Claude your way through it. The equivalent of Etsy Excel templates for sale.
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i’ve seen so many vibecoded “situation monitors” & dashboards this weekend… feels like the “skill” of being adept at claude and LLMs will have a very short half life.
you won’t need to build your own tool, soon whatever you need will already exist for free & open source.
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What happened to the Conservative Party of Canada? open.substack.com/pub/opiningcro…
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Do you know how the US bombing of Iran is likely to impact your investment portfolio?
Go to @cfosilvia and ask her “What will happen to my portfolio because of the US war with Iran?”
She will give you an asset-by-asset answer in seconds.
Try it free: cfosilvia.com
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Pete Hegseth right now:
“Hey Claude, find the best rebuttal for these statement’s claims…make no mistakes.”
Anthropic@AnthropicAI
A statement on the comments from Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. anthropic.com/news/statement…
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