
LifeisGood Capital
848 posts

LifeisGood Capital
@LIGCapital_
SP, Brazil. Research Analyst, Partner at Global LO Fund
Katılım Nisan 2020
1.1K Takip Edilen221 Takipçiler

@JerryCap Agree this will pick up momentum and be an interesting fight... but wonder if momentum fades once Apple / Google launch their versions of AI glasses late this year / early next year.
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$META AI implemented into Meta Glasses will give Zuck a true iPhone moment. It's happening.
While Google turned into Alphabet last year.
Facebook will finally turn into Meta.

Alexandr Wang@alexandr_wang
Meta AI is up to #6 in the App Store overnight, and still growing :) Also who knew the 7-Eleven app was so popular
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@MikeFritzell this podcast almost seems a bit fake to me... 500k subscribers in no time with somewhat niche content
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This discussion feels like complete nonsense. People don’t want customised software - they want software they know how to use. And why would Salesforce disrupt itself by offering free API access?
open.spotify.com/episode/5pbcJd…
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LifeisGood Capital retweetledi

@bizalmanac I think they can do large public names but FIVN is not it... we'll see
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Five9 down a bit since this tweet. Now $1.4B mcap, trades for 5.3x EV / EBITDA, 7.8x FCF
Would be a big bite for CSI but doable. Or, they could buy 30% ala ACP?
And what about the worst assets in TB and Vista funds?
This is CSI’s wheelhouse. Along with the small / mediums
Andy 🍕🏔️@bizalmanac
Constellation will do a huge take private in 2026. My guess. $CSU.TO / $CNSWF
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@LIGCapital_ @4drant @hareng_rouge ok... i gave everyone comment access... now you should be able to see them... and comment, i guess. this should be interesting
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@4drant @hareng_rouge made a copy of the original doc and marked it up. this was a fun way to get some thoughts on paper... thanks for tagging me in here docs.google.com/document/d/1eD…
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@CSUnerd Missions are AI-based automation modules and bots created using Harris’ MatchaAI platform
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@matt_slotnick Agree but OAI and Anthropic moving up the stack is a bit different
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@TheRealJunto Contradiction #5: Software is now easily replicable with AI, but Nvidia has a software moat with CUDA
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@viggy_krishnan @a16z "but I think the next generation of business companies can still be much bigger than the previous generation of companies given the capability gains."...
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@JaredSleeper Great presentation!! Tks for sharing!
Maybe I missed this somewhere in the slides, but what are the details behind the surveys - i.e. N of how many? Profile of buyers participating, etc. Would love to know as I think helps paint a better picture.
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$ABNB reported a punkish quarter.
Seems like truth here is core property rental business is now mature. Room / experience nights added each year have declined from 93m in 2022 to 55m in 2023 to 43m in 2024 to ~41m in 2025. Not good.
Furthermore, competition with $BKNG is increasing as they have nearly as much supply (though more European focused) and are growing 10% yy.
The team obviously isn't content with what will be single digit growth soon and so the investments begin.
They already are investing in experiences / services (which seem fine, but not particularly differentiated). It's your standard stuff - boat cruises, walking tours, surf lessons, massage, photography.
And this call they announced they will be pursuing a full hotel offering - with the obvious question being why are they well positioned to take share here. An initial look at LA / NYC hotels indicates they are mostly lower-end options.
I also thought they rather directly stated they want to become an OTA so would expect investments in flights / cars / taxis as well.
All of this is going to be expensive and their margins already have been stuck ~35-37%.
If revenue is only going to grow single digits, that doesn't leave a lot of room to invest meaningfully without taking margins lower for a bit.
They also are easing payment terms so customers don't have to pay some amount upfront which will be a working capital headwind.
Story is getting worse, numbers are likely going down.
Risk / reward also not interesting here.
"Upside" of -1% to 25x my CY2027 GAAP EPS
Downside of -22% to 18x street CY2026 GAAP EPS - but I also think their GAAP EPS is likely too high.
Kind of interesting - seems like they are now pursuing the BKNG playbook but perhaps 5 years too late as COVID strength misled them as far as where we were in vacation rental opportunity.

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@LIGCapital_ I don’t think anyone (including myself) will. The investor day was such a stupid idea. The tweet was more so I think relatively NICE > FIVN
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Man NICE just told you cloud rev growth accelerating to 16% through 2028 (implies total rev growth accelerating from 6 to 10). The stock trades 10x earnings and 8x cash. It’s up 1%. No one believes them/wants to own this thing. Have to see/wait for it to show up in the actual PNL, but baring a PE firm rolling up FIVN, don’t see how a pair of NICE long / FIVN short, doesn’t work.
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