@MagneticNorse This is a cheese sandwich with some eggs hanging on the sides.
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LostDodo
3.9K posts
@BrettErickson28 this was obvious to all real Iran experts but people like the clowns at FDD and Israel want to prolong this as long as possible. It's hard for them to imagine in this narrow case Iran has the upper hand and US will have to accept a painful compromise.
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President Trump has boxed himself into a corner. Kinetic strikes, while militarily successful, did not force Iran to capitulate or topple. The blockade has been nothing short of a disaster predicated on unrealistic timelines. And now, “Operation Freedom” may once again turn this into an active war.
(Yes, I know a blockade is an act of war)
What is most concerning to me, is the TOTAL lack of coherence from Donald Trump and Scott Bessent.
Just yesterday, we heard Bessent state that Iran has “a week” until they are forced to shut-in their oil wells.
A week ago, we heard Trump tell Fox News that Iran’s “oil infrastructure will explode in three days”. Now, on the High Hewitt show today, he said Iran has “two weeks”.
Additionally, my own projections put this timeline in the range of 50-80 days… possibly longer, and this analysis has been backed by other prominent experts who shall not be named that heavily influenced the initial timeline projections.
We’re asleep at the wheel, and have no way out.
The Strait is closed. We’re losing close to 13M barrels per day. Well more than 600M barrels have been lost throughout the conflict.
Bessent can’t decide if we should “jiu-jitsu” the Iranian’s by unsanctioning their oil, or if we should impose a blockade to shut-in their oil wells in 3 days… or 13… 2 weeks? A month and a half?
No Pete, we do not control the Strait.
No Scott, we are not Jiujitsuing the Iranian’s.
No Donald, their old infrastructure is not going to “explode”.
It is time to step down from our maximalist demands, abandon the sunk cost fallacy, and make hard and painful decisions at the negotiating table because we have been strategically outplayed with no viable path to success remaining.
Enough is enough.
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@TheWarriorsTalk But isn't that what always happens with coaches ? Look at Phil Jackson. He won his way and wouldn't change it, look at Doc he won with his big 3 and couldn't do it with anyone else. Do you think you put Kerr in charge of the Rockets and they are suddenly winning ? Or the magic ?
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Friction reportedly grew between the Warriors front office and Steve Kerr over player signings
essentiallysports.com/nba-active-bas…
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The fundamental question we should be asking about U.S. policy toward Iran is simple: what is the actual objective?
If the goal is freedom of navigation, a U.S. president has the diplomatic tools to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open as long as he lifts the maritime blockade.
If the goal is to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, then there are well-established mechanisms sich as limits on enrichment, stockpile reduction, and intrusive inspections, that can significantly push Iran away from breakout capability.
But if the goal is broader, meaning ending Iran’s regional influence or eliminating its control over strategic chokepoints, then we are no longer talking about containment or deterrence. We are talking about regime change.
And that’s where the core problem lies.
The administration’s rhetoric often implies ambitions that resemble regime change, yet in practice it is neither willing nor able to pursue the kind of sustained, large-scale military and political effort that such a goal would require. As a result, policy falls into a strategic gray zone, meaning applying pressure without a clear end state.
Continuing to escalate under these conditions is unlikely to achieve meaningful results. Instead, it risks worsening global economic instability, especially through energy markets, without bringing the U.S. closer to a resolution.
At some point, a basic decision has to be made:
If the U.S. accepts that the current Iranian regime will remain in power, then it should pursue a realistic agreement based on existing frameworks, focused on nuclear constraints and regional de-escalation.
If the U.S. seeks fundamentally different outcomes, then it must acknowledge what that entails: a long, costly campaign, potentially involving boots on the ground and months (or years) of sustained conflict.
Trying to do both - demanding concessions that effectively amount to regime transformation while negotiating with that same regime, is inherently contradictory. It assumes Iran will capitulate under pressure, despite no clear indication that it sees itself as defeated.
As long as U.S. policy remains in this strategic limbo, it risks achieving neither objective, ending up with escalation, economic fallout, and no durable solution.
You can’t have it both ways...
#iran
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@citrinowicz US can't open the strait it's a simple statement and yet Trump can't accept it. Geography matters and no amount of warships sitting outside of the strait is going to change that.
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@citrinowicz It was clear Iran had won once traffic through the strait stopped, Trump gambled on blocking the strait would get additional leverage because of dumb FDD math. Once the math was shown to be dumb he went back to trying to open the strait by force and just found out he can't.
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As we argued from the outset of the blockade, even if it imposed economic strain, it was never going to force Iran to capitulate.
The underlying assumptions were flawed from the beginning. The blockade was not a sustainable long-term strategy, it was an interim measure, positioned somewhere between a negotiated outcome and escalation.
Tehran understood this clearly. From its perspective, capitulation was never on the table; escalation was preferable to surrender.
The U.S. decision to move decisively into the Strait was, in many ways, a recognition of that reality. But it also triggered a predictable Iranian response. Friction leads to escalation.
The problem is that escalation itself is unlikely to produce capitulation. What it will almost certainly do is drive up the global cost of energy—dramatically.
And so, we find ourselves back where we started.
#iran
Javier Blas@JavierBlas
The push to re-open the Strait of Hormuz today, with two US warship crossing it and two US-flagged merchant vessels, signals the White House realises it can not keep waiting for the blockade to force Iran into the negotiation table. Effectively, it's an admission the blockade isn't working (if the blockade is seen as a means to get Iranian concessions, rather than an end in itself). The timeline of what the blockade would do to the Iranian oil industry was completely wrong.
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Iranian analyst tells me that Tehran's warning shots at US warships and the strikes on the UAE reveal Iran's new posture:
If Trump plans to restart the war, Iran will not wait for Trump to do so before it retaliates. It will strike preemptively in a measured way to deter Trump.
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@Chadhugho @Vikxxyhub @SpinDaBlock757 That was exactly my response when I first heard it. Like what, but look up his international resume he was FIBA WC MVP in 2023 and FIBA EuroBasket MVP 2025.
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"There are players the FO wants but they know Steve Kerr won't play"
"I'm was @ the Wolves game where Ayo dropped 42 & ppl asked me hey why didn't you guys get him." "But Steve likes a Gui Santos type of guy".
Marcus Thompson
This is why I say Kerr needs to go!🤬
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@Vikxxyhub @SpinDaBlock757 I regret to inform you that he will be in the hall of fame. He's a competent bb point guard but Kerr couldn't find a use for him.
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@LastDodo4 @SpinDaBlock757 Bro, Dennis Schroeder is the craziest example to use. A player who has been passed around to like 8-9 teams in his Career??
Oh please!!!!
GIF
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@biancoresearch Amazing how everyone says escort WSJ says it's just a phone call to coordinate. x.com/alexbward/stat…
Alex Ward@alexbward
President Trump did not announce an escort mission just now, US officials say. Project Freedom, earlier called the Maritime Freedom Construct, is a coordination cell. It’ll tell US-flagged ships and others the safe lanes to navigate the Strait of Hormuz (aka no mines, etc.)
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Big news from Trump about 20 minutes ago (and ~90 minutes before the market reopens on Sunday night in Asia):
The US will start Naval Escorts called "Operation Protect Freedom" tomorrow!
As I noted in the repost below (from Friday), the US was "stuck" until the circumstances changed. It now seems they are about to change tomorrow!
Some possible outcomes (hoping for #1 or #2, fearing #3 and #4)
1. US escorts ships out, Iran does nothing, this is over
2. US escorts ships out, Iran fires on ships that the US can repel, this is over
3. US escorts ships out, Iran fires on ships and hits them, or they hit a mine. The image of burning ships is a disaster for the Navy and the US, especially if it's a US warship.
4. The US keeps threatening to do this, but the Navy never actually does it (akin to them not firing on the 40 or so fast boats in the Strait today when Trump said they would a several days ago). The US can be criticized for talking a big game with little action.
Jim Bianco@biancoresearch
The bottom line is the Iran War is "stuck." No War (shooting) No Peace No Shipping No Crude Oil, LNG, Fertilizer, and/or Helium And it will stay "stuck" until circumstances change. The most likely change ... * The US/Israel restart kinetic attacks with the goal of forcing the Iranians to their position * The Iranians hold the stalemate long enough to drive up crude oil prices to intolerable levels for the developed world to get the US/Israelis to accept their positions. I guess a third option is that the blockade imposes unbearable economic pain on the Iranians to force them to accept the US positions. I say "guess" because the thinking now is this might take a long time, which plays into the Iranian point above about holding the stalemate to drive up crude oil prices to intolerable levels. As we are starting to understand, the Iranian regime has a high tolerance for economic pain, and the larger population cannot overthrow them. So, the maximum pain point, the so-called "tank top" of their crude oil storage facilities getting full, might be several weeks away.
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@ProfessorPape x.com/alexbward/stat… apparently it's just a call and not an escort.
Alex Ward@alexbward
President Trump did not announce an escort mission just now, US officials say. Project Freedom, earlier called the Maritime Freedom Construct, is a coordination cell. It’ll tell US-flagged ships and others the safe lanes to navigate the Strait of Hormuz (aka no mines, etc.)
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Trump just announced, US will escort ships out of Hormuz in defiance of Iran’s threats.
This tactic is called “salami slicing” and shifts the initiative to Iran to sink the ships and US escorts.
The big question: Will the civilian tankers take the risk?
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@citrinowicz But time is in Irans favor, the longer this drags on the worse it gets for Trump. Iran is trying to find the minimum acceptable offer for Trump while preserving the nuclear program which they will not give up. Trump either accepts that or we continue on.
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Both sides are looking for a way out of the current deadlock.
Iran appears to be putting forward political proposals with limited chances of acceptance, while the United States is focusing on more practical, operational solutions, particularly around the bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz.
Recent developments suggest that neither side believes the status quo is sustainable or working in their favor.
As long as diplomatic efforts fail to produce meaningful progress, the ongoing friction, especially in the maritime domain, carries a real risk of escalation.
In other words, if the current situation does not lead to some form of negotiated arrangement, it is increasingly likely to result in military escalation over time.
#iran
Alex Ward@alexbward
President Trump did not announce an escort mission just now, US officials say. Project Freedom, earlier called the Maritime Freedom Construct, is a coordination cell. It’ll tell US-flagged ships and others the safe lanes to navigate the Strait of Hormuz (aka no mines, etc.)
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@BrettErickson28 20% of the time it works every time. 8 years of war west/US gave any type of weapon they could to Saddam. The current regime fought in that war. They will happily wait 8 weeks to remove 30 years of sanctions. Trump can post 10x a day for a month and it wouldn't change anything.
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It is my genuine belief that the viral analysis that cited “13 days until oil well shut-ins” was the driving force behind the imposition of the U.S. blockade.
You will notice that an exceptional amount of data was posted within 90 minutes of CENTCOM announcing the blockade, and this data has been regurgitated line by line from Trump, Bessent, and Leavitt multiple times.
From Trump’s “3 days until Iran’s oil infrastructure explodes”, to Bessent’s “running out of storage”, it is clear that this is the playbook the Trump Administration was using for our Iran strategy we have seen over the past 19 days.
Unfortunately, here is the end result:
- 2 failed attempts at a second round of Islamabad meetings
- Per Bessent, a LOWERING of rate of inflation compared to pre-war rates
- No “catastrophic” oil well shut-ins in sight
- 19 Days wasted in one of the most catastrophic energy and fertilizer crises the world has ever seen
There is no question that Foundation for Defense of Democracies HAS, and WOULD HAVE milked this all the way to the bank had it been correct.
Unfortunately, if you’re going to bask in the glory of your purported analysis, you must also be willing to face harsh criticism when the cost of your failed assessment will now be measured in human lives.
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@aarondmiller2 At what point do we stop pretending that Barak Ravid is a real journalist? dude just parrots IDF talking points. He's been wrong time and time again and yet he's back on CNN.
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Wash, rinse and repeat. Trump is frustrated; has no way out; feels he needs to act. The de fault position is military strikes; warranted if there was the slightest possibility it would change Iran's positions. Almost certainly won't.
Jeff Storobinsky@JeffStorobinsky
.@BarakRavid w/ @jessicadean @CENTCOM surprise visit to the USS Tripoli in the Arabian sea and more Possible military action against Iran, might be likely 5.2.26
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@citrinowicz x.com/Seamus_Malek/s… is a good review of Iran's military strategy.
Séamus Malekafzali@Seamus_Malek
Fascinating footage released by the IRGC of a class at the org's staff college in the 90s, where future IRGC leader Hossein Salami teaches a course on asymmetric warfare, teaching officers how to drag out a war with the US by driving up economic costs and political turmoil.
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As the Houthis have already demonstrated, you don’t need physical control on the ground to shut down strategic waterways.
Advanced missile capabilities and drones alone are enough to disrupt and even effectively block key maritime chokepoints, regardless of whether there is a full military takeover.
Iran not only possesses a sophisticated array of these capabilities, but also the command-and-control systems needed to operate them effectively.
Geography, especially in a complex and narrow chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, is not something you can simply overcome. Iran’s military doctrine has long been built around asymmetric warfare.
Anyone who believes that sinking a few converted commercial vessels, even ones repurposed as a "drones carriers", would “reopen” Hormuz fundamentally misunderstands Iran’s strategic security doctrine.
More importantly, once the new
leader, Mojtaba, has identified the Strait as a core Iranian national interest, it will be defended with the same priority as Iran’s missile program or nuclear ambitions.
Whether people want to dismiss it
or not, some have clearly failed to internalize the lessons of recent conflicts and just how deeply the issue of Hormuz is embedded in the current regime’s thinking.
At this point, there is no real way
back. That’s what makes this situation so problematic, especially given the growing recognition that any military solution would be extraordinarily complex.
#iran
Mohammad Ali Shabani@mashabani
Beyond its mines, speedboats and array of anti-ship missiles, the "real" means of maritime disruption in Iran's possession is an arsenal of advanced marine drones. Informed Iranian sources privately say the mines are old technology in comparison. This is to say nothing about the possibility of both Hormuz and Bab El-Mandeb being shut down. Underestimating Iranian capabilities is what got Trump into this mess. Repeating that behavior would be another mistake. PS. The world's largest militaries, including the US and Russia, reportedly have military dolphins.
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@citrinowicz IMO China has been supplying Iran with drones/intelligence another conflict would go far worse than the initial one,
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As we said from the very beginning, given the nature of this administration, and a president who is impatient and seeks quick, visible results, the current naval blockade is, at best, a temporary measure.
It is not a strategic solution, but an interim step until either negotiations resume or conflict escalates again.
For all the blockade advantages, it simply will not lead to Iran’s capitulation.
#iran
Gregory Brew@gbrew24
Fwiw reporting earlier this week suggested Trump was going to stick with the blockade and see if the Iranian position shifted after a month of additional pressure. His comments today suggest his view is more binary--either return to war, or cut a deal.
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@tparsi If only we do X then Iran will surrender. My brother in christ you/EU spent 8 years giving Saddam every type of weapon he wanted from conventional to chemical and Iran didn't surrender. The people who fought that war are in charge, they could keep the blockade for 80 years.
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Trump thought the blockade of the Persian Gulf would be a silver bullet that would bring Iran to its knees. Instead, it erased the desperately needed pressure release that Trump secured through the ceasefire. Thanks to the blockade, oil prices now exceed the levels seen during the war itself.
In essence, through the blockade, Trump snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
But the incessant search for an escalatory silver bullet that forces Iran to surrender is not unique to Trump. It's a pathology of US foreign policy toward Iran.
responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-iran-blo…
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WOW!
The Iranian AI Lego team has another video out. They are doubling down on building bridges between Americans & Iranians while depicting the US gov and "system" as the real enemy.
The music, lyrics, and imagery are all designed to appeal to disillusioned Americans.
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