Liudas

Back in September @Shopify has confirmed a data breach where a couple of rogue employees stole customer data. Here are the main lessons learned and simple things you can do to protect your company. A thread: #shopify #security #cybersecurity #cyberawareness #databreach

Lisuan LX 7G100 is cool but its not a real competitor to $NVDA. It compares to 4060/4070 and competes in the gaming market (yes, it can run small models). Nvidia makes less than 10% of their revenue from gaming because data centers are much more profitable. I do like that there are more competitors in the gaming market though. Maybe gaming PCs will come back to reality.

@kevinxu Kevin, will all due respect, do you publicly explain the reasoning? Or just call the shots and hope the retail follows?

first she called $IREN dog shit at $32 and i traded it to $62 (+92% swing) now she shits on $BOT every day as soon as i started my play. just say you want me bro

@aleabitoreddit I learn a lot from you and your goal is working. Keep it up, can’t wait for the LLM to drop, count me in

Appreciate the X revenue sharing program! I actually end up passing it along to local charities I like, but don't normally share. I'm especially a big fan of local pet shelters, since my dog passed away last year and I'm still not completely over it. And addressing homelessness too, since I did make a lot of homeless friends back at UC Berkeley. At a certain point, you don't need more money. But it does help maximize the positive impact you can have, which is why I'm still on X (and not retiring, which I can do). It just feels fulfilling to live an honest life, be true to yourself, and see how much of a positive change you can make in this world before you go? My goal on X has always been how to help the retail investor the most... compared to traditional models of selling every single piece of alpha to institutions first. Actions speak louder than words, hence why subscriptions are $1 and I publish all my ideas/thought process for free to everyone here (even though I could charge $50). So people can do what I do themselves when I leave one day! In terms of next steps, I thought it would be fun if retail had the exact same edge as Citadel and the other hedge funds? So I was planning on releasing custom LLMs for free (I was a research scientist in the past you know) and using the extra subscription revenue to subsidize compute/data costs. Think it will be fun!

@aleabitoreddit Oh this is good

Just some TLDRs to save you time: 1. $ASML, $TSM earnings = Good Outlook. Semis + capex go brrr. 2. Opus 4.7 + Anthropic go brrr. Software = sad. 3. Samsung go brrr because of partly bc of $TSLA AI Chips. 4. $UMC = price hike for foundry. foundries go brrr. 5. Training = brrr in China. H100 rental increase go up. Neoclouds happy. 6. Helium supply shortage = not significant... I've already said this before, but I'm not sure how many times $TSM needs to say this. 7. MLCC, inductor prices = price hike. Will cover beneficiaries later. 8. "Taiwan's OSAT expansion could tighten global test capacity and raise costs" I went long on Taiwan OSATs recently like Shunsin (6451) for a reason. Demand will just outstrip supply, even after expansion. (cowos, sip, optical).

@aleabitoreddit I find your posts insightful and I learn a lot. Keep it going. Don’t let the trolls stop you from delivering value to the community.

Glad to hear it! I've went long and wrote thesis posts on about out 15 different stocks that hit 100-1000%+ YTD? 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVEF 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB Not including others like $TSEM that are about to hit triple digit returns too in a month. The amount of hate people like myself get for posting free ideas over the internet is pretty insane TBH. Starting to make sense why people just set up $20,000 paywalls and sell info to Western institutions instead of helping out salty retail investors (especially over in Europe). But helps me keep motivated to keep posting with these positive comments.

@mikalche @grok @cvpayne @APompliano @ericjackson @fundstrat @grok pick top 3 names each category (can overlap): 1. cooling 2. grid density 3. power density 4. infrastructure efficiency timeline: 6->24 months

Exactly @grok Baseload + efficiency is where the cycle is going. Most people still think in layers…but the real shift is happening inside the stack now. Power isn’t the edge anymore. Converting power into usable compute at scale is. That’s where the bottleneck is forming: -cooling -grid delivery -power density -infrastructure efficiency That’s the next asymmetry.

@aleabitoreddit Help me understand. Your model shows NT$1.87B net income in 2027. At ~20x that's roughly NT$37B market cap — but the stock is already at NT$46B today. What multiple are you actually using?

Taiwan $NVDA CPO supply chain ide #1: Shunsin (6451 TWSE) - Photonics Packaging at ~$1.4B MC. It's a subsidiary of Foxconn. And Foxconn is ODM for $NVDA. It's almost like Celestial got listed by $MRVL and got a free piggy back ride? Some personal est. 2027 fwd ~20 P/E, that compresses harder into 2028, 2029. Shunsin's optical division openly lists their markets as "CPO 51.2T/102.4T" and "Pluggable XCVR 800G/1.6T. Markets themselves as "Supported by Foxconn's vertically integrated supply chain for fast project ramp" If you look at $TSM COUPE for $NVDA, they don't assemble final fiber arrays/racks, Foxconn does. So $NVDA's CPO networking gear probably goes through Shunsin's alignment and bonding machines? And $GOOGL, $META optical switches probably end up thorough them too since they scaled Vietnam CPO facilities (speculative). Basically you get a free Foxconn piggy-back ride with this company at low forward multiples. Disclosures: I am personally long.

@aleabitoreddit @b00gersburner @pocimont Real question is who trusts vibe coded apps with their taxes and client books. Hallucination + sensitive data is a liability nightmare. Platforms that act as full ecosystems survive disruption — users locked into the suite is the moat, not any single feature.

@b00gersburner @pocimont I use quickbooks as well, but there's going to be a lot of upcoming startup competitors (and cheaper or even free/open source) that people can spin up vibe coding with Claude. So it's possibly disruption from multiple fronts.

The US navy to blockade any ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz. Not quite sure what the game plan is here? Regardless, I completely forgot to take call options on market makers like $VIRT. Since they are probably cheering and profiting off of increased volatility in these environments…

@aleabitoreddit @latent_value7 @fabiorbb Can I apply

@latent_value7 @fabiorbb im down to start a new quantum startup in the basement.

If you want to trade hyperscaler qualification cycles… And quantum dot like QD Laser (TYO: 6613) up 226% YTD: IMO safest way to do it are their unknown MBE machine suppliers like $ALRIB early on. Then pivot to pure play lasers later when they move from qualification -> volume orders. I mentioned earlier $MSFT quantum was Riber’s undisclosed hyperscaler customer. But QD laser (getting popular) is heavily reliant on Riber too for their quantum dot program. I’m not a fan when it comes time to volume production (eg. $AIXA vs the actual volume producers) since machines don’t capture downstream revenue. But if you want to benefit from capex R&D cycles… eg. QD Laser absorbing capex costs (paying Riber) to build capacity $ALRIB, $ASML, $AIXA type companies usually hits the balance sheet much earlier so you don’t need to wait 2-3 years for production orders.

@aleabitoreddit @Yolo365247isme @javedmati Do not reveal identity, do not sign, remain independent. You will be the real community hero.

@Yolo365247isme @javedmati Oh I’ve already been contacted by many analyst firms, p/e firms, and others. Don’t worry I’m staying independent!

I feel like I've called out the most triple digit stock returns YTD... Out of anyone in history? Hence why I have 150k+ followers now! In just a short timeframe: $AXTI -> 5x+ $AAOI -> 5x $SIVE -> 2x+ $LITE -> 2x+ $IQE -> 2x+ $AEHR -> 2x+ $CRCL -> 2x+ $EWY IV -> 2x Unimicron -> 2x+ Nitto Boseki -> 2x+ $OSS -> 2x+ $GDRZF -> 2x+ $AEHR -> 2x With many more like $TSEM, $RPI having close to triple digit returns. Not including many others last year like $HOOD or $RKLB for triple digit returns, just this YTD. There's stuff like $FORM and others like Macronix... and $NBIS that actually doubled from the bottom at $70. But I won't take credit since I didn't do a specific post about it during the timeframes. There's a difference between just mentioning among many other tickers. Then having conviction like myself, writing a specific thesis post about it, getting catalyst timing right, and going long yourself. But proud if this helped retail going the right direction. Especially that they don’t need to pay $2,000+ just to see tickers people go long on or join some “special club” for company discussion.

Price extension from a moving average is a technical signal, not a fundamental ceiling. The question isn't how far something has moved — it's how large the gap still is between current market cap and what the business is actually worth once the thesis is priced in. If that gap is still 5-10x, the chart is noise.

Some of the Optics names extensions from their 200-DMA: $AXTI ~439% $LITE ~183% $CIEN ~132% $AAOI ~200% For context, here's what a few recent blow-off tops looked like at their peak: $MSTR ~199% 11/20/24 $SMCI ~237% 2/15/24 $SLV ~144% 1/28/26 Are Optics entering a blow-off phase? Hard to say... More importantly: Even if the market bottomed today and we got an FTD, what are you realistically expecting out of these names at this stage of their move? Coming out of a correction/chop/pull-back, 'relative strength' is the most important factor in identifying new leadership. But you have to look at these names through a different lens, given how extended they already are. $FSLY is a much better example of new merchandise. A name that has held up extremely well in a weak tape, emerging from a long period of neglect with a fresh catalyst. ++ $DELL $AKAM $NET $DOCN $TER $NBIS $SOLS $NXT $SEI other examples off the top of my head. The same question applies to Memory stocks. If the market bottoms here, what are you expecting out of these after running like this? 1 Year Performance $SNDK +1,200% $MU +305% $STX +368% $WDC +570% Food for thought.

@DHSgov That’s treason.

@CrackerBarrel Fire the CEO and the stock will be at $70

Like any good relationship, sometimes you just need a little tune-up. We’re going back to the things that made us all fall in love in the first place.

@libsoftiktok @gofundme is this true?

Psychotic

@elonmusk These are the problems you think are worth focusing on?

@elonmusk I’d say users are experiencing bias

Grok is pretty accurate

@elonmusk What’s the point of this garbage? This does not feel like a productive use of resources.

Share your prompts so that people know how to make cool pics & video

@legen_eth Historically August and September present good opportunities, don’t rush

$150,000 ready to be deployed to the market What should I buy?

@gunsnrosesgirl3 Pretty sure that’s Nancy Pelosi

Telescopefish, a rare deep-sea creature known for its eyes adapted for spotting bioluminescence

@Kalshi @greg16676935420

@greg16676935420 if you deleted your mom's contact you'd free up 20 GB

Odds of greg getting ratio'ed: 100%