Mojo YoYo 🅰️🛰️📱🅰️

$ASTS The big boss has revised down the number of satellites needed to break even (previously 20 instead of 25). This has some profound implications on when the company will get to cashflow breakeven. Basically all it now has to do: > Build 16 satellites > Launch them via New Glenn (2x) or Falcon 9 (4x), probably a combo of 1x New Glenn (8 birds per flight) launch and 2x Falcon 9 (4 birds per flight) launches before end of 2025 > MNO's will handle the go live and deployment model to their hundreds of millions of subscribers How realistic is this before end of 2025? Based the Q3 2024 earnings call I think this is quite realistic, although at Q4 2024 earnings call we will probably get the fine details, however by that point the stock price might already go on a run, since then institutions will do the napkin math I do below as well. Below is a long assessment, but the TDLR is that this company is about to hit the sweet spot of the S-curve and the market is not yet fully understanding how profound these implications will be. The road to cashflow break-even requires: Launch First in March/April via ISRO the first block 2 bluebird will go up as a sort of "test" satellite for the new Block 2 generation. Judging that last time they require 2-3 months of calibration it is likely to assume the subsequent two launches with SpaceX are likely set in Q3 2025. Considering ISRO's and SpaceX track record with the vehicles I consider these "slam dunks". This would mean by end of Q3 then ASTS has 14 birds (plus Bluewalker) in orbit and operational or a close equivalent. Abel then confirmed one New Glenn launch is booked for 2025 as well, meaning the constellation would get to 22 birds, which would then mean cashflow break-even. With Vodafone's recent announcements of end of 2025 / beginning of 2026 I think an European launch for intermittent service will get the company to breakeven. Since New Glenn is a new vehicle with now just one (succesful) launch there is definitely some uncertainty in that launch that is bookmarked for end of 2025, but management confirmed they can backfill this with SpaceX. I think it is likely they have an option in the contract. Might cause a quarter delay. If I look at it from launch perspective end of 2025 is the everything goes as planned scenario and Q1 2026 is the reasonable prediction factoring in some delay type of scenario. That would mean the company is just one year away from cashflow breakeven. Satellites The company confirmed in the call that they have scaled the production to meet the 45-60 birds target in 2025 and 2026. Pointing out the building blocks of block 1 (Microns) are for the most part identifical to block 2. Lessons have been learned on block 1 and those will be put to fruition on block 2. In earlier calls we also got the number of production of 2 birds per month that has the goal of scaling to 6 per month in 2026. Basically if we do the conservative math AST building 2 birds per month for nine months that would get them to have 18 birds ready in Q3 2025, which is in time for the launch campaign. This seems doable, especially after the convert were management said they are going to fast track satellite production even further then iterated in their Q3 2024 earnings. Will need to get more details on this in the next call. ASIC production seems also on schedule, but again birds can also be launched with the FPGA configuration if there are any delays. Based on my assessment I conclude that from satellite production perspective nothing will be in the way for a end of 2025 launch. Q1 earnings call will likely be a confirming event with more details MNO Judging on recent MNO action it is obvious they will be ready when AST is ready to launch the service, that's a no brainer for me, so no delay from this angle. Cashrun way After the convert the company has a close to 1 billion warchest. Based on management comments we can calculate the capital expenditures and conservatively assume nothing is paid yet: (which is not entirely true) > 16 birds costs on average 20 million to build (source: Abel Avellan) = 320 million. > New Glenn is rumored to cost $100 million (AST might get some discounts due to signing before first launch), Falcon 9 costs 70 million. ISRO probably in the 20 million ballpark = 260 million. > Opex burn rate is 30-35 million, lets asumme 40 million to be conservative = 160 million. Conclusion Basically to get more then 20 birds up this would cost the company 580 million, with 320 million capex and 160 million of regular OPEX. With the close to 1 billion war chest this goal is easily obtainable without any additional funding or prepayments (which is extremely unlikely) and even if you factor in 2 quarters of delay there still will be sufficient cash. To conclude this basically means AST has a very credible path to cashflow break-even end of 2025 or Q1 2026. I think the stock could easily more then double if this goal is attained, which would mean from today's price within a year you get a double. But Tim management is going to accelerate again right? Yes, I think what happens is that management before convert was very focused on that 20-25 bird scenario, but I think now management is really going to put the pedal to the medal to get as fast as possible to continous coverage of 40-60 birds. Meaning instead of optimizing the cash position everything will be focused on accelerating sattelite production and probably buying additional launch capacity from SpaceX. We will know more during the Q4 call, but this is how I think it will play out. Very excited about the next 1-2 years. It will be a game changer for the company and my portfolio :) Attachments Relevant extracts from the Q3 2024 earnings call: Launch "As Abel and Scott detailed, during the early fourth quarter, we secured launch contracts with providers to enable us to launch up to approximately 45 Block 2 BlueBird satellites with options for additional launch vehicles up to approximately 60 Block 2 BlueBird satellites through 2025 and 2026" Launch schedule "So we will -- the cadence will be probably 1, 4, 4, 8, 8, 8 until we get to 60. And the New Glenn is designed to be reused 25 times and the multitude of them being built and with the first one scheduled to actually be this year." Operating costs burn rate "Consistent with the first, second and third quarters of 2024, we estimate that our adjusted cash operating expenses for the fourth quarter, excluding some remaining ASIC costs, will come in within a range of $30 million to $35 million as we continue to scale production of our Block 2 BlueBird satellites in preparation for our 2025 and 2026 launch schedule." ASIC chip integration for Block 2 birds (Block 2 will both have FPGA and ASIC chips) "And post that later in '25, mid-2025 to third quarter 2025, we will be including our ASIC in our subsequent launches." Scaling up Block 2 production "In Midland, we basically have scaled up to have the ability to produce the Microns that are required for Block 2 and then basically meet our target of 60 satellites during '25 and '26. We have done the vast majority of all the investment required for that. And basically, the same technology that we did launch in Block 1, it will be what it will be used on Block 2 satellites as it relate to the Microns for subsequent Block 2 satellites. So they're basically the same Microns, the same infrastructure for the next few launches. using our current Micron that is successfully operating now in Block 1." & "We currently expect our average costs of direct materials and launch expense per satellite for our Block 2 constellation to be in the range of $19 million to $21 million, an increase from our prior estimate of $16 million to $18 million per satellite as a result of actual launch costs recently contracted"

$ASTS - Expect some news coming out of Brazil very soon... 🌎🛰

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RAKUTEN COMPLETES FINAL AST SPACEMOBILE SHARE SALES Rakuten has completed their final tranche of sales meaning they now own 15,510,078 shares in AST. This batch has been 5,510,077 shares, worth nearly $400 million. Thankfully they're finally over now! $ASTS