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Most people don’t lose money in crashes because they’re dumb.
They lose because they think the system is designed to protect them.
It’s not.
Here’s how I outplayed the last crash…and why the next one will be worse: 🧵
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LowryLetter
644 posts
LowryLetter
@LowryLetter
Maps over noise. Cycles over narratives. Born from Occupy. Sharpened by Bitcoin. Watching the next empire fall.
Katılım Eylül 2024
661 Takip Edilen173 Takipçiler
@BlogsMitch @Jerkstore723 @financedystop Thank you, whenever I see these stories, I am screaming in my head, THEY REFINANCED!
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Baby Boomers briefly saw mortgage rates hit ~21% around 1980, but homes were far cheaper. A 900k mortgage today vs. a 100k mortgage back then means payments can still be about 2x higher relative to income, even with lower rates
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@BRValentine1983 @PatrickHeizer Greatest gen did it first. I think they are sadly being forgotten in all of this. They did all of this with much more grace and dignity than the boomers.
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@PatrickHeizer The Silent Generation was the first generation to age en masse. Wife and I have spent past decade caring for our SG parents two of whom turn 89 soon. They were, understandably, unprepared. Not as numerous as boomers so they haven’t gotten the cultural BS boomers have.
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My most sympathetic Boomer take is that most of their "issues" are due to them being truly the first generation to age en masse.
Aging in place, handing over the reigns of power, on the verge of bankrupting Social Security, etc.
All are new issues.
Which is why Millennials must **learn** from their terrible choices so that we don't repeat their sociopathy.
Logan Bowers 🏗️ 🏘️@loganb
The big suburban homes empty nest boomers are retiring in largely didn’t exist they were built and sold to young boomers just starting families. It’s fine to want to retire in a big empty house, if that’s how you want to spend your money, but society needs to be permitting and building new housing for today’s young families.
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Say no and walk away from the table...for now
Melody Wright@m3_melody
Housing as a casino enters its final phase H/T: @MauiBoyMacro
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LowryLetter retweetledi
@tmaxftw I came to the same conclusion. We are going on a wild ride.
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This will be like 2008, but much slower.
Things will not normalize for another 5-10 years and prices have fallen more.
Until then, residential real estate will be a poor investment.
The Wall Street Journal@WSJ
Foreclosure filings jump to six-year high as rising property taxes, insurance costs and debt strain U.S. homeowners on.wsj.com/3Piq8sz
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LowryLetter retweetledi
US IT JOBS FALL BELOW 2.8 MILLION FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2020
OVER 300,000 JOBS LOST SINCE 2022, DROP SIMILAR TO FINANCIAL CRISIS
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@texasrunnerDFW Seen this in FL a million times. They either go back home to the northeast or halfback it to the Carolinas.
Heat, weather and really hard to make new friends.
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I am astounded by the number of millennial families who moved to Dallas, bought a home, then turned around and sold the home to move out of Dallas, in less than a 5 year time span
Is Dallas just super transient or is this a post-pandemic phenomenon happening everywhere?
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@chigrl This seems like a set up for:
1970s style inflation/energy shock
PLUS
2008 crash
PLUS
2020 style policy intervention
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LowryLetter retweetledi
Hormuz is being modeled by consensus as an oil shock. It is not. It is an input layer reset of the global manufacturing economy. The crude price move is the loudest signal but not the most consequential.
The most consequential transmission is the slow repricing of the chemical, metal, and specialty input layer that sits underneath every physical product made on Earth.
Each cascade has its own time signature. Oil moves in days. Fertilizer in weeks. Specialty chemicals in months. Capital goods and consumer durables in quarters. Sovereign wealth flows and reinsurance capital in years.
So the impact rolls through markets in waves rather than a single shock. This is what makes it harder to model than a typical commodity event.
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LowryLetter retweetledi
Market cycle psychology applied to the Semiconductor Index.
For one's private perusal.
Enjoy .
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LowryLetter retweetledi
Scarcity is now going to overtake the abundance we’ve lived with since globalization started 45 years ago.
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
SOUTHWEST AIRLINES SAYS FOR DOMESTIC TRAVEL, FARES ARE $200 FOR 1-500 MILES, $300 FOR 501-1,000 MILES, $400 FOR 1,000+ MILES
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@schmaltzy253 @JayDyer No, it is growing up and wanting to share those lessons.
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Everyone is coming to the conclusion I came to when I was in my late 20s and focused on mythos over polis
Owen Shroyer@OwenShroyer1776
Why are so many people taking a break from politics?
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@JayDyer Cradle Orthodox here so I didn't need to search for that but breaking free from politics is what led me to understanding that you just needed to watch the money to understand what was happening. Keiser Report back in the day was revolutionary.
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@newstart_2024 Now go a step farther and watch the classic Aaron Russo interview
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What if the biggest “win” for families in the last 50 years was actually a trap?
Rory Sutherland dropped this on Alex O’Connor’s podcast: The two-income household started as a nice option. Both partners work, more money comes in. Feels great at first.
Then reality shifted. Governments got double the tax. Existing homeowners watched their property values soar. House prices rose to match two salaries.
Suddenly one income wasn’t enough anymore — even for high-earning singles like consultant surgeons. Families traded ~35 hours of free time per week for only modest gains in lifestyle.
What began as freedom quietly became an obligation. And it left single people and parents who want to raise their own kids at a real disadvantage.
This one stings because we sold it as pure progress.
Personally, it makes me question how many modern “upgrades” we’ve normalized without counting the real cost — especially lost time with family.
What’s something you once thought was clear progress that now feels like it came with a heavier price than we admitted?
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LowryLetter retweetledi
A CBS News poll finds that over 70% of Americans say they are having difficulty affording essentials like food, housing, and health care.
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@real_MikeBarnes because they are. Bookmark his tweet when this thing crashes. Then they hide like cockroaches, only to eventually resurface when housing starts going up again.
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Kotlikoff wrote about it in "The Coming Generational Storm", 2004. No one listened.
Felix Prehn 🐶@felixprehn
Illinois just admitted it owes its public employees $317 billion in pensions. The state has $96 billion to pay it. Every teacher, firefighter, cop, and prison guard in the state has been told that their retirement is funded. The math says it is not. The math has not changed in twenty years. This is not just an Illinois problem. State and local pensions across America are short $1.5 trillion combined. New Jersey is 37 percent funded. Kentucky is 34 percent funded. Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Hawaii are all under 60 percent. A state cannot file for bankruptcy under federal law. A state can only do three things when the math runs out. Raise taxes. Cut benefits. Or both. Illinois has chosen taxes for thirty years. Illinois property taxes are now the second-highest in the country. The pension fund is still 30 percent funded. The state is losing population to Texas, Florida, and Tennessee at the fastest rate of any state in the country. When the workers leave, the tax base shrinks. When the tax base shrinks, the only remaining option is benefit cuts. Detroit cut its pensioners 4.5 percent in bankruptcy in 2014. Stockton cut its pensioners 60 percent on healthcare. San Bernardino cut benefits across the board. The Detroit retirees who took the cut had already worked their entire careers. The cuts came after retirement, not before. There was no negotiation. Most Illinois public employees do not pay into Social Security. Their pension is the only check coming. When the fund runs dry, they will be told the same thing the Detroit retirees were told. Younger workers know this. Pension funds across the country are now using leverage and private credit to chase yields they need to close the gap. Pension obligation bonds have been issued in record sizes since 2020. The bonds borrow at 5 percent to invest at a hoped-for 7 percent. The math is the same math that broke in 2008. Your state pension fund is now a leveraged bet on private equity returns it cannot verify. HOW TO MAKE MONEY FROM THIS: 1. Long the destination states. Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Nevada, Arizona. Real estate via Camden Property Trust (CPT), Mid-America Apartments (MAA), and Sun Communities (SUI). Population inflows are structural for the next decade. 2. Long the moving company. U-Haul's parent Amerco is private now, but Ryder System (R) and Penske are public-adjacent. The migration trade has six more years of compounding. 3. Long Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B). Buffett's cash plus a portfolio of dividend compounders. Replaces the income stream a pension was supposed to provide. 4. Long T-bills directly through SGOV, BIL, and USFR. 5 percent. Government backed. Build your own pension because the state's pension is not going to be there. 5. Short specific high-yield municipal bond ETFs concentrated in underfunded states. iShares National Muni Bond ETF (MUB) is broad. Look at single-state funds for Illinois (IIM), New Jersey (BFY), and Connecticut (NUC) for cleaner exposures. I'm hosting a once-in-a-lifetime free webinar where I go over the exact things I know as a former banker and world class investor. 100 percent free to join. Sign up at felixfriends.org/live Link is also in my comments. (your father is a retired schoolteacher in illinois. he gets a pension check every month. the check is from a fund that is 30 percent funded. the fund is now buying leveraged loans from apollo to chase yield. the same apollo that runs your aunt's annuity. when one breaks they both break. they are going to break at the same time.)
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