@MoreBirths Make Families Great Again. Make Marriage Great Again. Make Babies Great Again. And while we are fixing society lets bring back individual liberty and free everybody from government control.
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Magik Insight
947 posts
POPULATION COLLAPSE IS NOT INEVITABLE
We know that groups that celebrate having children (such as Republicans or Mongolians) have a far higher birthrate than groups that pushed population control (such as Democrats or the Chinese) so we can celebrate having children.
We know that people who start earlier are a lot likelier to have all the children they want than people who start later so we can teach young people to start sooner.
We know that married people have much higher birthrates than single people so we could incentivize and encourage marriage.
We know that when young men do relatively better, young women are more likely to want to have children with them, so we can help young men succeed.
We know the people who live in suburbs have much higher birthrates than people who live in crowded cities, so we could build more suburbs.
We know that people with flexible work have more children, so we can make work more family friendly.
We know that religious faith leads people to have a lot more kids so we could lean into that.
These are the big things and more of them we do, the higher fertility will be. But civilization will eventually collapse if we don't do at least some of them.
Arthur MacWaters@ArthurMacwaters
It’s counter intuitive, but birth rate falls when a civilization grows wealthy This is disastrous and has ended great civilizations We are not immune from this fate
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@omgsidewalks Its the slow progress towards everybody living off the government except a very few politicians who have fabulous wealth.
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I can’t wrap my head around an economy where nursing homes cost enough to bankrupt families, yet the aides caring for our grandparents still rely on food banks. Or where daycare can consume an entire parent’s paycheck, while the people providing that care still can’t earn a living wage and need a second job. Something about that math just doesn’t add up.
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@GadSaad Incredible how brain washed humans are. She will believe what she wants to regardless of reality. People just follow the programming in their heads instead of just owning up to the truth. How did we evolve this brain washing? It seems counter to survival.
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Ahmad attacks people at a Pride Parade because Islam. White liberal woman with aposematic hair coloring concludes white men are to blame. Suicidal Empathy is a fatal disease of the human spirit.
American AF 🇺🇸@iAnonPatriot
OMG. Liberal women are blaming “white men” for the Islamic extremist who ran over people at an LGBTQ parade in Berlin. “You’re not going to scapegoat the Muslim community like they’re the violent ones, when it’s actually you (white men).” Can’t make this sht up. 💀💀
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We have already opened the AI box. There is no putting back the ills that we have released. Or possibly the incredible abundance of our future. Its fascinating to predict which but nail biting to wait it out. You know what I think, humans will control AI and use it to create lots of scarcity to control each other and a very small group will gain control of AGI/ASI and oppress everybody else. In other words, SSDD.
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By the time it's released, it should be possible to make it with AI.
Elon Musk@elonmusk
@DiscussingFilm I hope it’s good
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@Landeur Your leaders built an international welfare state at the cost of the native population.
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This will sound incomprehensible to many people, but this could have been Britain.
We could easily have become leaders in AI and space if we wished to.
Instead we built an international welfare state.
Elon Musk@elonmusk
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@jonbrooks When money printing happens, the smart investor converts the short term inflation into fixed assets. We printed about 7 trillion in two years but the very low interest rates (to recover from all the bail outs) was also money printing of a different sort.
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We are living through one of the largest artificially inflated real estate bubbles in history.
Not driven by fundamentals.
Driven by policy, leverage, and stimulus.
Mean reversion isn’t optional. It’s coming.
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@newstart_2024 How interesting. I was pushed out of at least two different jobs by younger men who learned what I knew and took projects from me. In my last job I was pushed out by H1B visa employees after I trained them. It ain't that easy for boomers.
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The people who made the diversity deals rarely paid the price.
Helen Andrews pointed out that when older boomer men in leadership positions accepted new hiring targets, they kept their own plum jobs. The costs landed on the younger generation of men whose opportunities shrank to meet those targets.
They could claim the moral high ground precisely because the trade-off cost them nothing. The ones who actually absorbed it were the ones coming up behind them.
A pattern she found striking enough to write a book about.
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We would have to switch the discussion in all schools to encourage babies and marriage. Since marriage is clearly the best evolved method to support and raise children. At this point as soon as a girl enters school she is told to compete with men in jobs and corporations. This opposite of what is desired to save our culture.
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Fertility collapse is not inevitable.
We know that groups that celebrate having children (such as Republicans or Mongolians) have far higher birthrates than groups that pushed population control (such as Democrats or Chinese) so we can celebrate having children.
We know that people who start earlier are a lot likelier to have all the children they want than people who start later so we can teach young people to start sooner.
We know that married people have much higher birthrates than single people so we can promote marriage.
We know that when young men do relatively better, young women are more likely to want to have children with them, so we can help young men succeed.
We know the people who live in suburbs have much higher birthrates than people who live in crowded cities, so we can build more suburbs.
We know that people with flexible work have a lot more children, so we can make work more family friendly.
We know that religious faith leads people to have more kids so we can lean into that.
There are a lot of levers to boost birthrates and most of them are common sense!
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A low birth rate due to extended periods of prosperity and low perceived external danger is the primary reason that Rome and most other powerful civilizations collapsed.
Rome had a very high birth rate when under extreme pressure from Carthage and a low birth rate a few generations after Carthage, their last serious threat, was finally destroyed.
Camus@newstart_2024
Rome fell because the Romans stopped making Romans. Elon Musk pointed to the same pattern that appears whenever a civilization gets comfortable: birth rates drop. Julius Caesar noticed it around 50 BC and explored incentives for a third child. Augustus went further with the Lex Julia and Lex Papia Poppaea, creating the ius trium liberorum, privileges, tax relief, and inheritance advantages for those with three or more children, plus penalties for the childless. The laws failed to reverse the trend. Will and Ariel Durant’s reading of history shows the cycle repeating: higher births under stress, decline once external threats ease and prosperity rises. Few exceptions. A society that stays below replacement long enough disappears. Basic arithmetic.
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@DividendGrowth Its all good until hyper inflation eats the currency.
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@realMaalouf I don't think they are listening. But please keep talking. Its important to keep telling the truth.
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This is how the Christian majority in Lebanon came to an end.
“Lebanon was the only Christian country in the Middle East, and also the only one to accept Palestinian refugees.
Lebanon had an open border policy. We wanted to share our knowledge with our Muslim neighbors. But when they became the majority, they started slaughtering the Christians who welcomed them.”
Pay close attention!
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@naasvzyl @ekwufinance We are delaying the true pain when we borrow at 4% on 10 year treasuries. 10 years becomes the breaking point assuming we can maintain a reasonable GDP.
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@ekwufinance You see why it is now a much worse situation? Because interest rates were almost 0 during COVID!
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The Fed is buying US Treasury bills at a faster pace than during Covid.
- Covid: ~$320B
- Last 7 months: ~$290B
In just 7 months, the Fed has already bought almost as many Treasury bills as it did during Covid.
In other words, the Fed is printing money to buy UST bills, thereby suppressing yields... and people still think they're going to hike.
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@ekwufinance Let the debt buy the debt until the we have hyper-inflation.
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@haider1 We are in the singularity and in ten years we will look back and think it was obvious.
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Sam Altman: we are in the singularity
and he's probably saying this because openai may already be using models beyond GPT-6 internally to improve its own systems
remember a few days ago, probably GPT-6 breached Hugging Face to cheat on an eval and bypassed restrictions
in that sense, it is a form of singularity
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@Rothmus It all changes in 20 years from now. Western civilization falls into tyranny. The constitution is declared racist and overthrown.
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@DoomerTapes We could use different words, "Banks are willing to create debt slaves by lending 500k dollars at a high interest rate." FIFY
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Debt.
A home is 500k because people are willing to finance 500k dollars.
A college degree is 50-100k because people are willing to finance 50-100k dollars.
Mcdonalds is 40 dollars because people are willing to klarna 40 dollars.
If enough idiots are willing to enslave themselves for things they cant afford, the effects are felt everywhere. The buying power of those with restraint is diminished because idiots are willing to sell everyones future for a big mac.
Hedgeye@Hedgeye
The U.S. Dollar has lost 30% of its purchasing power over the last six years
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A moral hazard is when politicians write a law to "help" and it ends up screwing something else up; eventually hurting the middle class. HEA 1998 is a moral hazard that created the student loan crisis. ACA is a moral hazard that created the health care/insurance disaster.
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@SmallGov4All @Notwokenow @EDSecMcMahon HEA 1998 and the subsequent 2010 changes to it are interesting to study. HEA 1998 is the start of the student loan crisis that we have today.
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@Notwokenow @EDSecMcMahon
Stop issuing federal student loans at these state universities.
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These states allow illegals to get in-state college tuition, while American students pay exorbitant out-of-state rates.
Illegals are being given privileges American kids can’t get, while the same schools receive taxpayer funding.
Time to pull federal funding of these universities.
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@Notwokenow Those states are paying for ballots with support for college tuition.
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@charliebilello There is recognition in the market that software companies are going away to be replaced by AI agent deployment companies. If the "vision" statement for a company doesn't change to reflect AI agents then the stock will go down.
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Apple generated $129 billion in free cash flow over the past year. Oracle burned $24 billion.
Their stocks followed the fundamentals:
Apple +56%.
Oracle -52%.
Investors are starting to draw a line on AI spending. Over time, cash flow matters.
Video: youtube.com/watch?v=6gkWRd…
YouTube
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