Mark Hackett

@yieldsearcher Interesting, from 1974-2012, real income was coincident 6 for 6 with recessions, since, 1 for 4

Real income growth (ex transfers). Note the late 90s tech boom (red box on the left) and today (red box on the right). AI productivity gains sure hitting differently.

@Hedgeye The performance gap between bonds and equities is driving flows, further widening the gap

🇺🇸 U.S. 30-year yield hits 19-year high

@KobeissiLetter Rates are an issue, but home prices to incomes are not crazy

BREAKING: The average interest rate on a 30Y Mortgage in the US surges to 6.75%, the highest since July 2025. Housing affordability is at an all-time low.

@LizAnnSonders Quits rate ticking up while hires accelerate. That's the sweet spot — people confident enough to job-hunt but employers still hungry for talent. Means wage pressure stays live and the Fed's got room to stay patient on cuts.

@MTSInsights Is it time to say "it's different this time?"

🇺🇸 The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined by -0.6% MoM in March to 97.3, more than reversing its 0.3% MoM increase in February to 97.9. Overall, the LEI fell by -1.0% over the six months between September 2025 and March 2026, more than halving the rate of decline of its -2.1% contraction over the previous six-month period.

@Marcomadness2 To give an indication on how accurate the Conference Board stat is, I lag CPI so it matches up -- for example, the 3/26 stat is actual for CPI and was the 3/25 year forward estimate for Conference Board -- over the past 30 years, CPI has averaged 2.5%, estimate has averaged 5.1%

The collection of inflation expectations

@MilkRoadMacro Per Bloomberg estimates

LOTS OF MOVEMENT ON HORMUZ (LAST 48 HOURS) A wide range of ships are moving through but focus on the red markers. Those represent tankers carrying crude oil, chemicals, and LNG. Here’s the latest shipping data at Hormuz: 🟢 Feb 26 → 🚢 132 🟢 Feb 27 → 🚢 128 🟠 Feb 28 → 🚢 98 🟠 Mar 01 → 🚢 18 🟠 Mar 02 → 🚢 7 🔴 Mar 03 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 04 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 05 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 06 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 07 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 08 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 09 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 10 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 11 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 12 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 13 → 🚢 3 🔴 Mar 14 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 15 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 16 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 17 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 18 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 19 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 20 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 21 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 22 → 🚢 3 🔴 Mar 23 → 🚢 5 🔴 Mar 24 → 🚢 6 🔴 Mar 25 → 🚢 4 🔴 Mar 26 → 🚢 4 🔴 Mar 27 → 🚢 3 🟠 Mar 28 → 🚢 11 🟠 Mar 29 → 🚢 9 🟠 Mar 30 → 🚢 8 🟠 Mar 31 → 🚢 11 🟠 Apr 01 → 🚢 16 🟠 Apr 02 → 🚢 13 🟠 Apr 03 → 🚢 14 🟠 Apr 04 → 🚢 11 🟠 Apr 05 → 🚢 10 🟠 Apr 06 → 🚢 11 🟠 Apr 07 → 🚢 11 🟠 Apr 08 → 🚢 12 🟠 Apr 09 → 🚢 9 🟠 Apr 10 → 🚢 15 🟠 Apr 11 → 🚢 17 🟠 Apr 12 → 🚢 14 Source: @World_Insights1

@TimmerFidelity Interestingly, nobody wants to be neutral -- that signaled contrarian buy signals during Covid and Liberation Day

Predictably, investors are getting more cautious and this is showing up in the sentiment surveys. The American Association of Individual Investors survey (AAII) tends to be volatile and shows that bears now outweigh bulls by 52 to 30. The top panel highlights that this is a valuation correction, with the P/E ratio down 18% and the price index down 9%. The Investors Intelligence survey (II), which measures sentiment among newsletter writers, tends to move more slowly and shows that bulls still outweigh bears by 49 to 22.

@dailychartbook @MacroCharts CNN Fear & Greed at full blown capitulation -- hit 8 yesterday. Since 2019, when index broke below 20, next three months was up an average of 9%, with an 86% batting average.

"Sentiment still has room to capitulate." @MacroCharts

@neilksethi Here is a chart of the average gap versus the 50-day over the past month dating back five years

A sleeping volcano... MarketWatch: The S&P p500 hasn't closed more than 2.5% above or below its 50-day moving average over the past three months, the longest streak since August 2017, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group. "Periods where the S&P 500 has been so closely anchored to its 50-DMA haven’t been all that common throughout history," the Bespoke team said in a Wednesday client note (see chart above). "Since WWII, there haven’t been many other extended periods where price was consistently so close to its 50-DMA." What makes the current streak even more unusual is that most stock sectors have been more volatile than the broader benchmark index. As of Tuesday's close, six of the S&P 500's 11 sectors closed more than 5% above their 50-day moving averages. "Like a sleeping volcano, the S&P 500 looks placid from above, but underground, the molten lava bubbles," the Bespoke analysts said.

The S&P 500 is in the tightest two-month trading range since 2017, yet the average company has moved 14% this year

And EM

Here it is for EAFE vs S&P 500

Equal weight outperformance continues, though previous positive years (2000 and 2009) were a mixed bag for the overall market

BREAKING: The 60+ day delinquency rate on US subprime auto loans is up to a record 6.9%. Serious delinquency rates have more than DOUBLED since 2021. This exceeds the 1996 peak by 0.9 percentage points. For context, the 2008 Financial Crisis high was 5.0%. Meanwhile, total auto debt is up +$312 billion over the last 5 years, to a record $1.67 trillion, driven by surging vehicle prices. Subprime financing makes up ~14%, or $234 billion, of all auto loans. Americans are falling behind on their car debt at a record pace.

Average payment for subprime borrowers seems . . . high bankrate.com/loans/auto-loa…

January 2026 Rental Report: Renter Conditions Improve Across U.S. Markets, With Notable Increases in Vacancies realtor.com/research/janua… via @RDC_Economics

@philrosenn There are some echoes (concentration/top-heavy, lottery mentality of investors, tech outperformance vs. everything else, etc.) but the magnitude and the complexion of leadership is not comparable.

People stopped talking about an AI bubble once they realized the technology is so good that entire companies and sectors can get wiped out overnight. This stock market is nothing like dot-com froth.

No change in strategist estimates for the S&P 500 since December -- median implies a 10% gain from here

@TheBondFreak @truflation According to Bloomberg's new AI bot, there is a 97% correlation between Truflation and CPI with a 1mo lag, suggesting CPI will decline sharply in the next few months.