MattC
585 posts


“Hedge funds all consider you guys rare earth.”
That may be the tell.
Jon Evans — CEO of @LithiumAmericas, former FMC lithium head, now building Thacker Pass with GM, Orion and the DOE — joins us to explain why one of the most strategic US lithium assets is still being traded like a momentum proxy for MP.
The market may have got this wrong.
• Thacker Pass is no longer a permitting or a financing story
• The capital stack matters
• Evans’ argument is that the process risk is widely overstated
• The reported C1/ASIC reflect a very different setup from how the stock is being discussed
The bigger point: lithium demand goes well beyond EVs with Evans' noting every 1 GWh of storage needs roughly 900 tons of lithium.
Meanwhile the stock still gets shoved into the same “critical minerals” basket trade as rare earths.
Misclassification can be a valuation opportunity.
Full episode out now.
YT → youtu.be/hudbS0HwAnU

YouTube

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This is interesting and also very speculative, so take it with a grain of salt. A resident of the Tinfoil Hat and Mayonnaise Society keeps an eye on shipments from overseas for $ABAT this is the same investor that caught the shipment that had membrane equipment last year.
This time he found one from a few months back from a company called Ferrum Poland, and listed was a pusher centrifuge along with what look like tools for its maintenance.
What is that?
A pusher centrifuge continuously separates solids from liquids, spinning the mixture at high speed to force the liquid through a sieve while mechanically pushing the dewatered solid cake out the other end.
They are standard equipment in fertilizer, salt, and chemical production, anywhere you need to continuously dewater crystallized solids at high throughput with consistent residual moisture in the product. In lithium-ion battery recycling they are used in the final stages of battery grade production to dewater crystallized sulfates and hydroxides before drying.
The shipment lists the weight at 1,220kg, consistent with a single PM-23 at 800kg plus maintenance tools and ancillary components. However, the listing also describes 3 packages as LAC, loose articles on pallets, which is standard freight terminology for items shipped unsecured directly on pallets rather than boxed or crated. This could mean that they shipped 3 centrifuges and not one.
We do not know for certain. Either way, $ABAT has at least one piece of equipment that belongs at the end of Phase 2, specifically the stage needed to produce battery grade metal sulfates or lithium hydroxide monohydrate.
Also for those wondering, this unit seems small but the facility is rated at 20,000 TPA of feedstock. Only about 40% of that is actually converted into black mass, the rest is low value materials like foils and steel casings which are separated in Phase 1.
The PM-23 is sized about right for the flow they would need for any of the battery grade components.



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@chamath Northern Nevada perks: no income tax, low property tax, Tahoe in your backyard, no traffic, 300+ days of sun, world-class outdoor access, easy RNO airport—and still ~1 hour to SFO/SJC or ~3 hours drive to the East Bay.
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California politicians think taxes are like boiling a frog. You can keep it up as long as you only increase it by a little each time…but at some point the frog is cooked…or moved to Nevada, Texas or Florida.
Dan@DanSaltsburg
@chamath I got this email yesterday from CA State Board of Equalization, the new California sales tax rates effective April 1st.
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@TheBigMoon67 @MorePerfectUS The company building the data center will provide behind-the-meter electricity.
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@MorePerfectUS Chicago is the 3rd largest city in the US. i don't we can fully grasp just how much electricity is going to spike.
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@LithiumIonBull @ENERGY Of the major US battery recyclers (Ascend, ABTC, Cirba, and Redwood), who is most likely to receive funding?
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$500M for “processing” and “manufacturing” from DOE isn’t a whole lot, but what interests me most in @Energy's NOFO is what I’ve been saying for many months would happen – a shift from Trump Administration to a positive narrative for batteries and battery critical materials for AI/Military and away from 2025’s negative narrative of batteries linked to EV/renewables.
Which provide tailwind for the “lithium to battery” investment thematic, similar to the “rare earths to magnets” thematic which has dominated the past year.
Energy Secretary @SecretaryWright Sept 2025…
“That’s what pushing wind, solar, and batteries into your grid does. It makes energy more expensive, it hurts people’s lives, and does almost nothing for global greenhouse gas emissions.”
“wind, solar, and implied storage raise the system cost of electricity.”
“When you include the backup cost for renewables, including batteries/storage, it's a huge driver of increased cost... You make energy expensive.”
…And today…
“For too long, the United States has relied on hostile foreign actors to supply and process the critical materials that are essential in battery manufacturing and materials processing. Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, the Department of Energy is playing a leading role in strengthening these domestic industries that will position the U.S. to win the AI race, meeting rising energy demand, and achieve energy dominance.”
NOFO language is more explicit:
The activities to be funded under this NOFO support the broader government-wide approach to expanding and securing America’s energy infrastructure, including by building critical domestic manufacturing and strengthening material supply chains. Batteries are critical for many energy sectors, such as grid resilience, data centers, transportation, drones, and other defense applications. Critical minerals and materials (CMMs) needed for the battery sector include lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, graphite, fluorspar, copper, and aluminum.
This program will:
· Expand the capabilities of the United States in advanced battery component manufacturing;
· Ensure that the United States has a viable battery materials processing, manufacturing, and recycling industry with sufficient capacity to supply the North American battery supply chain;
That Chris Wright got the green light to frame batteries in this way is an important signal which I will be followed with further Administration discourse and bigger dollar funding announcements for lithium and other battery materials.
U.S. Department of Energy@ENERGY
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The top 5 lithium stocks from your RS chart (Mar 13 close data via Yahoo Finance):
1. Galan Lithium (GLN.AX): 483M AUD (~337M USD)
2. Lithium Argentina AG (LAR): 1.10B USD
3. Critical Metals (CRML): 1.11B USD
4. Core Lithium (CXO.AX): 612M AUD (~427M USD)
5. Liontown Resources (LTR.AX): 5.36B AUD (~3.74B USD)
(AUD converted at ~0.698 USD.) These smaller/emerging names lead RS while majors lag—classic setup you highlighted.
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Long-term relative strength study of the 25 largest lithium companies:
The conclusion isn’t that the sector is broadly strong.
The more interesting conclusion is that internal leadership is starting to emerge before the sector reflects it clearly.
The large names like ALB or SQM are not leading.
The strongest relative profiles are showing up in emerging producers and advanced developers.
That’s something we often see at the beginning of commodity cycles, when smart money starts positioning where it sees the most beta and upside.
At the same time, several of those leaders are currently in pullbacks near important technical levels, which looks more like a correction within a rebuilding structure than a structural breakdown.
There’s another key detail: the ETF isn’t leading either.
That usually means the lithium space is still a stock-picker’s market, not a passive exposure trade.
In my view, this study points to a very specific idea:
Lithium may not be in the expansion phase yet, but it could be building the leadership that typically precedes it.
And when that happens, the sector often still looks weak…
right before it stops being weak.
#Lithium #Commodities #Mining #EnergyTransition #Materials #Investing

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@PathofTheDollar @unusual_whales B-2 bunker busters can get them below ground too with enough notice. They need to start meeting over Zoom, although Mossad will probably hack into that too.
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@unusual_whales Why are these guys still meeting above ground?
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I love garage sales, and really, if this is true, $ABAT will be able to drastically reduce some CAPEX related to equipment. After ABTC’s de-manufacturing component, what they do and what Lithion used to do is pretty identical, low value material removal along with reagent recovery to produce a high quality, low impurity black mass.
As far as I know, Lithion never progressed past the initial stage of the platform, the creation of the black mass. I can speculate why. Funding dried up due to the delay in just getting the first stage up and operational. That fortunately looks like a pitfall that ABTC was able to avoid, but perhaps just by the skin of their teeth.
But the bulk of the equipment that Lithion would have used, as I said, would be pretty identical to what ABTC would be using after the de-manufacturing component. And depending on how far along they got on developing the battery grade stage, they could be looking at equipment for graphite recovery and solvent extraction, as well as the components for crystallization.
When it comes to lithium, ABTC plans to produce lithium hydroxide while Lithion was working on soda ash precipitation of lithium carbonate, but with the shift to LFP from NMC in the states, possibly picking up the equipment to create lithium carbonate just makes this garage sale even more attractive.
lapresse.ca/affaires/entre….
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MattC retweetledi

Feb 25, 2026
#Lithium Carbonate 99.5% Min China Spot
Price: $23,467.88
1 day: $+1,414.60 (+6.41%) 📈
YTD: +38.82%
#Spodumene Concentrate (6%, CIF China)
Price: $2,254.00
1 day: $+131.00 (+6.17%) 📈
YTD: +45.61%
Sponsored by @LibraEnergyMats
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@unusual_whales ngl if this pass @SpeakerPelosi is cooked btw
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@LegionHoops Anyone who sees this as a bad thing is crazy. Tank before the tank rules get more punitive and hopefully end up with a top-4 pick.
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@PolymarketIntel Those poor sailors need a night out.
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