Matt Mosich | Bitcoin's Speaker Coach

@edstromandrew Based as always.

Bitcoin Bear Market Post Here. WARNING. I’ve been having some interesting interactions with people who are in denial of the likelihood that the #Bitcoin bull market is over and that it is now in a bear market. It has helped me sharpen my definitions and, more importantly, revealed a lot of confusion in the community. I hope to clear up a few things here. First, a lot of people (or bots?) don’t understand probabilities. If you are 100% certain of anything financial in this world, you’re wrong. Nothing is certain. All is probability distributions. When you believe in certainties, you do dangerous things like use leverage on volatile assets like Bitcoin. This road leads to ruin. When I say that I think there’s about 60% percent chance that we are in a normal Bitcoin bear market, that also means a 40% we are still in a bull market or some other environment. 40% is still “a lot” of probability. It also helps to define these terms. People will challenge definitions, but I guess I’ll land on “it’s still a bull market if the price hits $130k next year”. I say $130k because that allows for inflation-adjustment. The reason I mention this is because I don’t consider the $72k pop last year after the ETF approval to be an all-time high versus the 2021 peak of $69k because the purchasing power (in terms of stuff people actually consume) lost a lot of value in the period between 2021 and 2024. Purchase power is what matters. Do my clients and I have Bitcoin price exposure despite my view on probabilities? You betcha. Why have Bitcoin price exposure if there’s a 60% chance of a bear market? That’s simple math. If we’re still in a bull market or if 3.8-year cycles are now dead, then my target for Bitcoin next year is $200k. (Note, this will be fully in line with the upside price target of $8 trillion total = $400k per BTC for 2029 that I published in my book, Why Buy Bitcoin). If we’re in a bear market, my target price for the bottom is in the vicinity of $60k. (Welcome back $58k gang!) That makes my “expected value” outcome equal to 60% x $60k + 40% x $200k = $36k + $80k = $116k. That’s a 38% positive return from the current price of $84k. Where I come from, that’s a very attractive return. For all those spewing vitriol about the cycle being over, you’re doing Bitcoin wrong. There are lots of reasons to own Bitcoin that I haven’t even touched on here. But it IS a financial asset, and being overexposed to any financial asset is NEVER a good idea. And being levered to any volatile financial asset using debt that can be called based on market movements is a recipe for REKTAGE. I do have one piece of “good news”, which is that even if we are in a classic Bitcoin bear market already, there is a good chance that if you are over your skis on BTC, you will get a chance to lighten up your position at or near $100k. That’s where most of the moving averages, and especially the 200-day and 50-week, are converging. It might take a month or two, but in prior bull markets that I’ve lived through, there has been “one last chance” to lighten your load. If you have no dependents or a two-income household or a bulletproof source of fiat income or an outrageous amount of Bitcoin then I guess none of this matters to you. But if you’re a normie like me then this matters a lot. One more thing. IF this is a bear market (60% odds), then I expect more “fundamental” bad news (fundamental in terms of short term price action). Each of the last few bears had a multiple negative events. Exchange hacks, frauds, leverage unwinds, etc. This time around we could get another exchange hack or fraud or hotter conflict with China or additional advances in quantum computing (without commensurate advances in mitigation actions within the Bitcoin community) or something else I haven’t thought of. I.e. when (IF) the story of the bear market of 2025/2026 is told someday, it will most likely include more negative “fundamental” events. The corollary is that an ongoing bull market requires more positive fuel - passage of a market structure bill or major government buying or something significantly positive. Believe me, I hope we end up in the 40% case instead of the 60% case. That would be wonderful. I wish you all the best.

@dgt10011 Damn, inspiration to turn my CFP dues into Bitcoin now, every October.

If I’d stacked sats instead of paying CFA dues since 2013, I’d be up $1 MILLION (8.8 BTC). If I’d done it since 2009 (exams and dues included), I’d be sitting on $127 BILLION. Costliest mistake of my life. Every. Single. Year. This ends today.

@basedlayer About a year and a half ago, I went cold turkey on Bitcoin pods. I realized that Odell's "stay humble, stack sats" was the essence of what I learned and needed to learn. So, next leg became "stay humble, stack skills." And, hearing the same people wasn't gonna do that.

Every Bitcoin podcast is the same ten people interviewing each other about the same ten topics and we all listen because we're addicted to confirmation bias disguised as education. The real alpha left a long time ago what's left is people explaining the obvious to each other for engagement while pretending we're still early. We're not early we're just repeating ourselves hoping repetition creates reality and honestly it might be working.

@Crypt0Senseii @benjamincowen I really hope, for your own sake, that you're kidding.

The replies are priceless. I can’t stop laughing. This was so worth the post! I often see things in the crypto market that some people call impossible. People didn’t think bitcoin would ever reach $100 dollars let alone $100k. Now people are saying bitcoin could go to $1 million or beyond. When it comes to XRP there are a lot of factors that could play into a price prediction like this. Tokenized stock, bonds, derivatives, real estate, debt. stable coins. I think people underestimate how big some of these blockchains will be.

🚨🤝 JUST IN: Digital Ascension Group’s CEO, Jake Claver, envisions #XRP skyrocketing to $2,000 by the start of 2026!

@gmekhail Something that will only be increasingly necessary in a bear market.

Many factors go into running a successful bitcoin treasury strategy, but it's increasingly apparent that the most important elements are the strength, authority and conviction of the CEO.

@jasonstolkner @FitFounder This guy gets it @jasonstolkner

@Matt_Mosich @FitFounder alright alright alright

What’s the one book you’ve reread the most times in your life?

@ProofOfMoney So wise, so lucky to have him.

“We must keep pace with the rate of fiat debasement.” - Bitcoin’s CEO, when asked about bitcoin’s recent price increase.

@DzambhalaHODL I don't even have to try it, you're just right.

Try this: - Lay down fully and try to have an intellectually demanding phone call - Same thing but sitting up - Same thing but walking in the sun You'll understand quickly

@gmekhail @gazza_jenks What I came here to ask. Congrats @gmekhail.

@gazza_jenks Intense hunger stops around day 3-4 for me. Day 5 onward I was a different person. Serene, full of energy. Hunger tended to come in waves.

14 Days complete. No food. Water only. One of the most challenging and most rewarding things I’ve ever done. Feeling reborn and also, 21 lbs lighter. The bitcoin bull market may now resume, see you at fresh ATH. 🫡

@ProofOfMoney That took me way too long to understand lol

I haven’t studied this too deeply yet. But Matt has an interesting take on Bitcoin’s value from one state to the next.

@MorgenRochard ^ what I said post BTC 2025, you just made it much simpler. x.com/Matt_Mosich/st…

Your wife doesn’t hate bitcoin. She hates being spoken to like a podcast comment section. Listen first. Then orange pill gently.

Most Bitcoiners try to be Bitcoin podcasters. I don’t mean literally, I mean figuratively. Every Bitcoin podcast host has a different origin story - finance, energy, politics, tech, etc. And that’s the point. Bitcoin touches everything, meaning it can reach people wherever they are. The algorithm helps that. It finds the person who thinks the way you think. It finds your niche. But the algorithm doesn’t exist in a one-on-one conversation. You’re not talking to ‘you’. You’re talking to your dad. Or your coworker. Or your grandpa. And that’s where most people get it wrong. They bring podcast energy to a personal conversation. They give the whole pitch. They try to force someone to see what they see. But I’m coming to learn that understanding doesn’t start with talking. It starts with listening. On my way to Bitcoin 2025, I had an hour-long convo with my grandpa. I’ll be seeing him today and he wanted to continue our conversation. And, as much as I’d love to just tell him the perfect line and him get over the hump, I realized that today's not about some performance. It’s about connection. He asked me to share some thoughts. I will. But more important than that is showing up ready to further understand him. To see where his minds at. Where the friction is. What he’s curious about. And not try to make today 'the moment'. Just a step. Because maybe the best way to explain Bitcoin… is to stop saying ‘have fun staying poor’ and start meeting people where they are.

@SeaKingFootball @DabeNwude @andrew_condello @latsondheimer @Tarek_Fattal @breezepreps There we go @DabeNwude! Big time numbers. Let’s hit 450

3 school records broken in a week! @DabeNwude with a 435 bench and @andrew_condello with a 560 squat and a 315 clean #SeaKingStrength @latsondheimer @Tarek_Fattal @breezepreps

@TheTophaLoaf Same... though see you there sir.

I’m getting fomo about Vegas because people are already there and I’m not showing up until Monday lol

Each one of these gets better and better. Well said @ProofOfMoney

@gmekhail @saylor I now have the house remix of this stuck in my head… And I'm not upset.

“People who use fiat currency as a store of value, we call them poor.” -@saylor

Here’s a negotiation tip: buy Bitcoin.

@AsherHopp Thanks for the lolz

Trump promised tax cuts, and now nobody will be paying capital gains tax next year. Promises made, promises kept!

@21MMforthe21st @TEDx @Cornell Awesome news, can’t wait to see it.

Grateful to share I’ll be giving a @TEDx @Cornell Talk on April 12! “In her TEDxCornell talk, “In Yourself You Trust,” Ella Hough challenges the way we think about traditional currency and introduces Bitcoin as the ultimate time capsule—a way to preserve not just your wealth, but your freedom to live. In a world where time is everything, Ella asks: are you really saving money, or are you losing time?” 🎟️ here! vivenu.com/event/tedxcorn…