Dr. Michaela Muscat Spaak

Bir insan ne kadar zekiyse o kadar çok yardımsever olma eğilimindedir. Çünkü zeki kişiler, iş birliğinin uzun vadeli toplumsal faydalarını daha iyi görebilirler.

Smartphones are not the explanation for the recent decline in fertility. Instead, they are an accelerator of deeper forces already at work. Let’s start with the facts. Fertility is falling almost everywhere: in rich, middle-income, and poor countries; in secular and religious countries; and in countries with high and low levels of gender equality. The decline accelerated around 2014. So, no country-specific explanation will work unless you are willing to believe that 200 distinct country-specific explanations arrived at roughly the same time. Smartphones look like the obvious candidate: the first iPhone was released in 2007, and global adoption has been astonishingly fast. Economists understand the first major decline in fertility in advanced economies, from 6 or 7 children per woman throughout most of human history to about 1.8, that occurred between the early 1800s and roughly 1970, well before smartphones. The main drivers were a sharp fall in child mortality (effective fertility was rarely above 3 and often close to 2) and the shift from a low-skill, rural agrarian economy to a high-skill, urban industrial one. We have quantitative models that fit these facts well. Country-specific factors mattered too, of course. Proximity to low-fertility neighbors accelerated Hungary’s decline, while fragmented landowning structures accelerated France’s. But these were second-order mechanisms. This is also why most economists long considered Paul Ehrlich’s doom scenarios implausible. We forecast that fertility in middle- and low-income economies would follow the same path as in the rich, probably faster, because reductions in child mortality reached India or Africa at lower income levels (medical technology is nearly universal, and most gains come from handwashing and cheap antibiotics, not Mayo Clinic-level care). Much of what we see in Africa or parts of Latin America today is still that old story. But in the 1980s, a new pattern appeared. Japan and Italy fell below 1.8, the level we had thought was the new floor. By 1990, Japan was at 1.54 and Italy at 1.36. This second fertility decline began in Japan and Italy earlier than elsewhere, driven by country-specific factors, but the underlying dynamics were widespread: secularization, an education arms race, expensive housing, the dissolution of old social networks, and the shift to a service economy in which women’s bargaining power within the household is higher. The U.S. lagged because secularization came later, suburban housing remained relatively cheap, and African American fertility was still high. U.S. demographic patterns are exceptional and skew how academics (most of whom are in the U.S.) and the New York Times see the world. My best guess is that, without smartphones, Italy’s 2025 fertility rate would be about 1.24 rather than 1.14. I doubt anyone will document an effect larger than 0.1-0.2. Italy was at 1.19 in 1995, not far from today’s 1.14. The TFR is cyclical due to tempo effects, so I do not read too much into the rise between 1995 and 2007 or the decline from 1.27 in 2019 to 1.14 today. The direct effect of smartphones is not zero, but it is not, by itself, that large. Where social media, in general, and smartphones, in particular, matter is in the diffusion of social norms. What would have taken 25 years now happens in 10. Social media are not the cause of fertility decline; modernity is. But they are a very fast accelerator. That is why social media are a major part of the story behind Guatemala (yes, Guatemala) going from 3.8 children per woman in 2005 to 1.9 in 2025. Without them, Guatemala would also have reached 1.9, just 20 years later. Modernity, in its current form, is incompatible with replacement-level fertility. By modernity, I do not mean capitalism: fertility fell earlier and faster in socialist economies than in market economies. Socialist Hungary fell below replacement in 1960, and socialist Czechoslovakia in 1966 (both experienced small, short-lived baby booms in the mid-1970s). By modernity, I mean a society organized around rational, large-scale systems and formalized knowledge. Countries will not converge to the same fertility rate. East Asia is likely stuck near 1, possibly below, given its unbalanced gender norms and toxic education systems. Latin America faces the same gender problem plus weak growth prospects, so I expect something around 1.2. Northern Europe has more egalitarian family structures and might hold near 1.5. The very religious societies are probably the only ones that will sustain 1.8. All of this could change with AI or changes in population composition. We will see. But on the current evidence, deep sub-replacement fertility is the “new new normal.” Unless we reorganize our societies, better learn to handle it as best we can.

Lord Skidelsky obituary: leading historian of Keynes #Echobox=1776640017" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">thetimes.com/uk/obituaries/…

@bamutxi @ShaykhSulaiman @grok is this fake or real ?

@ShaykhSulaiman Full English translation

BREAKING: KUWAIT CLAIM NUCLEAR LEAK Kuwaiti authorities have issued official warnings through the media regarding the possibility of a nuclear or radioactive leak near neighboring countries

france didn't spend €109 billion on AI to build chatbots. they went straight to what actually matters: the crêpebot 3000

Over the years I’ve been in many towns and cities when they were being bombed — in a few cases (Baghdad, Belgrade etc) by my own country. No matter what the justification, most of the victims have been entirely innocent. I’ve come to loathe the very thought of aerial bombardment.

Cérémonie de dénomination de la nouvelle école Suzanne Spaak, rue d’Argenteuil, dans le 1er arrondissement de #Paris. Une figure de résistante et Juste parmi les nations, qui transcende le passé pour inspirer les nouvelles générations. #Paris1 #Circo7501

L’école élémentaire publique de la rue d’Argenteuil s’appelle désormais l’école Suzanne Spaak (1905-1944). Résistante, Juste parmi les Nations, Suzanne Spaak sauva des enfants de l’horreur de la Shoah.

L’école Argenteuil (1er) portera bientôt le nom de Suzanne Spaak, en hommage à cette résistante et Juste parmi les Nations, qui a sauvé de nombreux enfants juifs de la déportation pendant la Seconde Guerre Mondiale.

@British_Airways Frequent fliers who need to keep their medicine cool/ refrigerated should fly @emirates @etihad @airfrance @Eurostar @easyJet and @AirMalta. They’ve always been extremely helpful and their staff were kind.

@MicaMuscat We understand your frustration and disappointment, but that is what the airline policy is. We're sorry to disappoint you. Neil

@British_Airways Sure, instead of choosing the best medicine for my needs, I’ll pick one that suits your policy. The alternative is clear, fly with a different airline. I’m informing my health insurance & doctors/hospitals; so that fliers in a similar situation can choose a different airline

@MicaMuscat Hi Michaela. I am sorry to hear this upset you, but we're not able to keep your medication cool. Please talk to your pharmacist about alternative options. This is clearly stated on the travelling with medication section on our website. (1/2)

Happy birthday, Antonio Gramsci! 🎉🥳

I am sorry to see that despite years of talk, gender inequality is on full display at the #UNGA General Debate. Less than 10% of speakers this week are women. This is unacceptable – especially when we know gender equality delivers for peace, climate action and much more.

“Behind every Al Fayed or Diddy, there is a small army of enablers: this column is dedicated to them”….

Georgia O'Keeffe, Morning Sky, 1916 #WomensArt

[contd] covers I had never seen before | Balthazar #durrell

“The mark of an advanced society is not that the poor drive but that the rich take transit.” Oslo:

Adieu Delon. A little bit of cool has gone today

The 76-year-old bookseller, Mohamed Aziz, from Rabat, Morocco, spends 6 to 8 hours a day reading books. Having read more than 5,000 books in French, Arabic and English, he remains the oldest bookseller in Rabat after more than 43 years in the same place. When asked why he left his books unattended outside, where they could potentially be stolen, he replied that those who cannot read do not steal books, and those who can read are not thieves. He is known as the most photographic bookseller in the world. He has had his used book stall since 1963 in the Medina, the oldest district of Rabat, the capital of Morocco. Orphaned at the age of 6, he tried his hand at fishing to fulfill his dream of graduating from high school, but at 15 he dropped out of school because he could not afford textbooks, which were too expensive for his family. Frustrated and without studies, he decided to open a bookstore, placing books on a rug on the floor under a tree, and now for over half a century he has run his shop, realizing his dream of studying. His day lasts twelve hours. Before opening the bookstore, he looks for used books in other shops to read and resell them. Today, over seven years old, he says that with two pillows and a book is enough to feel happy. He accumulates towers of books and when you ask him how many he has, he answers that he never has enough. He interrupts reading only to pray, smoke, eat and serve and advise customers interested in specific topics.

@dieworkwear I love solaro.. any brands you recommend?

You can also try specialty fabrics, such as Solaro (woven with two diff colored threads, so it has a shimmer) or seersucker (although I would do a navy tonal seersucker, as the traditional white-and-blue coloring may feel too American Southern at a wedding in Mexico).

OK, let's do a thread on chic resort wear for a wedding in Mexico. Will make this advice somewhat more generalizable so other people may find it useful. 🧵