Michael T. Edgar, NCARB

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Michael T. Edgar, NCARB

Michael T. Edgar, NCARB

@MichaelTEdgar

Guiding international businesses through market entry, site selection & municipal partnerships. Turning global expansion into local jobs & growth

Katılım Kasım 2022
214 Takip Edilen295 Takipçiler
Michael T. Edgar, NCARB
Michael T. Edgar, NCARB@MichaelTEdgar·
Halfway through. Have been talking with LT1 about it. Especially discussing the reasons why we dropped two big bombs on Japan.
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Michael T. Edgar, NCARB
Michael T. Edgar, NCARB@MichaelTEdgar·
Added to the morning walk playlist
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My second conversation with @DarrenFarber, Managing Partner of Albion River (a defense-focused investment firm) and former special advisor at the DoD. With US-Iran negotiations still unfolding, we spent most of our time on what winning actually means in a theater like Iran. We discuss: - The Strait of Hormuz - China, Israel and Ukraine - The Eisenhower and Taylor schools of military force - The 20-year plan to co-opt American universities - Magazine depth - The rise of neo-primes Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 Theaters of War 3:26 Flexible Power vs. Massive Retaliation 5:14 The Dual Nature of Dictatorships 7:43 Positive Propaganda 10:15 The Strait of Hormuz 11:29 Eisenhower and Taylor's Theories of Escalation 16:48 Grading the U.S. Military's Capabilities 18:01 Assessing China's Illegitimacy 19:41 Magazine Depth 23:20 The Inevitable Fall of Totalitarian Regimes 27:07 Peacetime Mobilization 29:06 Takeaways from Ukraine 30:47 The True Risk of a Taiwan Invasion 32:38 The Rise of Neo-Primes 38:20 The Challenge of Political Will 44:23 Process vs. Outcome in U.S. Politics 46:43 The Dangers of AI in Military Systems

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Amy Nixon
Amy Nixon@texasrunnerDFW·
Once you’re past 35, are you just going to keep being gradually more tired every year for the rest of your life or is a there a second wind somewhere? Anybody suddenly stumble upon newfound energy in their 40s? 50s? 60s, maybe with retirement? Naturally, no HRT or hacks
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Michael T. Edgar, NCARB
Michael T. Edgar, NCARB@MichaelTEdgar·
@antonia_mdprjct Great lessons. Managing products and specifications can be a full-time activity. A good PM with 10+ years of experience in managing materials is worth their weight in gold. I would say Bitcoin, but Bitcoin does not have mass. 🤣
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Antonia
Antonia@antonia_mdprjct·
When I built my house, I spent more of my budget on American products because it mattered to me (and I spent ~4 years saving to build the house). I documented the build of my house here and got **many** comments about how we were stupid not to buy the windows from China. Some of the items weren't in the budget, so we bought them from Canada (flooring) and Mexico (millwork). On principal, I'd love for everything to be American made. As an example, we spent considerable time working with our (American) window manufacturer to develop a new line of products, using my house as a test. I spent hours with the engineers and field crews to nail down the details. Even giving them feedback months after install so they could have more data about performance. This type of R&D is expensive because it takes a lot of specialized people a lot of time. The reality is we don’t have the ability either in quality or volume (sometimes both) to produce every building material needed in the US. Cost is downstream from that. Which means that, in practice, this can be tricky. Especially in commercial work, where one of the primary responsibilities is to investors. That’s precisely the main reason I have spent over a decade building vendor relationships to balance cost, quality, and lead times. This, in part because while I was still in architecture, I became familiar with a project where non-rated light fixtures from overseas caused a fire and considerable damage. In the decade + since then, I’ve become familiar with two commercial projects that were significantly delayed as a result of lighting/plumbing ‘dupes’ malfunctioning. There are also many stories of homeowners stuck on their home builds because materials arrived from overseas and they turned out not to be as expected. (Think windows and doors that were the wrong size arriving after framing was already done). And while a $50k savings can be tempting, it shouldn’t be putting a home build or a $10mm commercial project at risk. The better solution, where an item exceeds the budget is actually very simple and doesn’t carry that risk. Just select a different specification.
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Sandeep | CEO, Polygon Foundation (※,※)
Money has always been 1 person trying to send money to another person, thats it. The point hasnt changed but the tech has. Theres no reason in 2026 that sending money home to your family should still cost 6% and take 3 days. What we're building at @0xPolygon ends that. You want to send someone money, you send it. Thats the whole game.
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Erik Townsend 🛢️
Erik Townsend 🛢️@ErikSTownsend·
The final point Rory cites from Iran in the below tweet is the most critical one. Iran has been crystal clear since the conflict began that they are unwilling to give up possession of their ~440kg of 60%-enriched HEU. That's the central "risk" that Trump and Netanyahu started this whole war over. When Trump said Iran was "just weeks away from a nuclear weapon", what he really meant is that it would only take a few weeks to enrich that 60% HEU to 90% (weapons grade). That's what the whole war was started over in the first place, and it will always be the central issue that has to be resolved before the conflict can end. It's plausible that Trump is giving up to save face, declare victory, and move on. In that case this whole conflict will have been for nothing. Far more likely, Trump is buying more "negotiations occurring under ceasefire" time to avoid congressional approval requirements. It's also plausible that Trump incorrectly believes that Iran will allow its 60%-enriched HEU to leave Iran, and when he finds out they refused (consistent with exactly what they've repeatedly said they would do), he may accuse them of breaking the agreement. It's crystal clear that Iran sees that outcome coming, and is "in damage control mode" now, making it publicly clear that they have not agreed to hand over their HEU. They don't expressly say here that they will never turn it over, but they've made clear in other statements in the last few days that this exact order was given by the Supreme Leader this past week. I therefore conclude 1 of 2 things has to be true: 1) This is another "fake news" peace deal that's intended to buy more time before facing congressional approval challenges, but will ultimately prove just as meaningless as the last several similar "peace deals" that never panned out, OR 2) Trump is giving up and will try and save face by declaring victory, taking credit for reopening the strait, and might then pivot to Epstein-files tactics to brush minor details like Iran still has the nuclear material that could be enriched to weapons-grade in just a few weeks and Iran will begin charging massive tolls for traffic transiting the Strait under the proverbial rug. But #2 is very unlikely, because Rubio has already made public statements (Saturday, from India) reiterating the nuclear materials hand-over red line. He wouldn't be pushing that message if Trump was giving up and looking to save face. I lean toward #1 above, considering that Iran has already emphasized that Trump's formative MOU "does not in any way mean free passage thru the Strait". Remember, Trump needs to avoid any "resumption of the war" because he's already well beyond the 60-day deadline for congressional approval to continue the war. So this whole thing looks to me like a tactic to defer the nuclear materials negotiation (i.e. the real "red line" substantive matters that were the main reason the war started) into a 30-day drag-this-out phase, where we get at least some traffic through the strait and stay immune from congressional approval demands. If that's right, it will prolong this until both sides eventually reach the obvious conclusion that neither is willing to bend on its red-line demands, which all center on the nuclear material hand-over that hasn't even been discussed in the negotiations that precipitated this weekend's "peace deal" announcement from @POTUS. If you're tempted to say "But...They are talking about opening the Strait NOW, and that will solve the global energy supply problem, so this is still massively bearish oil prices", think again. Better yet, follow @CommodMkt. Even if the Strait were fully re-opened to pre-war traffic levels (very unlikely), it would take 6-8 weeks for the tankers to reach their destinations before energy supply could begin to recover. By then we'll have reached the next red-line challenge in this negotiation. Bottom line, this ain't over till it's over. And it's not over nor can it or will it end this weekend. I'm working on a Substack post going into more detail on all this now. It will explain what the MSM have consistently failed to explain: Why the 440kg of 60% HEU is so important, and why there seems to be such a disconnect between Trump, Lindsay Graham and others insisting "Iran was only a few weeks away from a nuclear weapon" vs. Tulsi Gabbard insisting "Iran doesn't have and hasn't had a nuclear weapons program for over 20 years". Believe it or not, they're both right, and the explanation is nuanced. Follow my substack now if you want to be notified. Should be posted by early Sunday morning.
Rory Johnston@Rory_Johnston

Pro world: mention of *pre-war* Hormuz transit levels Pro Iran: Hormuz transits “exclusively under the authority” of Iran, nuclear file has not been discussed

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StripMallGuy
StripMallGuy@realEstateTrent·
Spoke to a Cook County property owner this week. One of his retail buildings is 5,000 SF. Annual rent: $160,000 Annual expenses: $160,000 It is, by far, the market I hear investors say they will never touch. Nothing else in the US even comes close.
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Michael T. Edgar, NCARB
Michael T. Edgar, NCARB@MichaelTEdgar·
@antonia_mdprjct @mwmoedinger My "favorite" part of the drafting potion was selecting from a set tool box of components a line w/ the mouse, placing it, then using the arrow keys to expand or contract - no numbers or coordinates allowed. I think space bar = enter. You had to fight the program the whole time.
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Antonia
Antonia@antonia_mdprjct·
@mwmoedinger I think that software failed more people than was necessary. It was so glitchy and I was terrified at every exam that it would kick me out and I would fail as a result.
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Antonia
Antonia@antonia_mdprjct·
“You’re setting yourself up for failure” For context: the guy barely knew me, but he was one of the office ‘sweethearts.’ He had graduated from one of ‘the right schools.’ And despite my grad degree, MIT wasn’t on that list. Those were his words when I bravely announced in January of 2014 that I was going to take all 7 architectural registration exams within the year. See, he didn’t know anybody who had passed their exams that quickly and surely, I didn’t know what I was getting myself into. Especially since, back then, you had to wait 6 months to retake an exam you failed. He had taken two or three exams and failed at least one. It's been ~12 years since my taking the last ARE, and this story has been so much more helpful than I could’ve ever thought at the time. I will admit that the anger from that conversation took a few days to subside. It’s a great reminder of a few things: 1 - How far I’ve come 2 - How every step means I get closer to what I’ve always wanted to do 3 - That whenever I set my mind on something there’s little to stop me 4 - That most people lack imagination, which limits them immensely 5 - That whenever you set out to do something (sometimes not even that ambitious) there will be people who "know better" or who will tell you to "be realistic." Those are not your people. Last time I checked in on the guy a couple of years ago, he still hadn’t passed his exams. I took and passed all my exams on the first try, in 2014. In 6 months.
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Michael T. Edgar, NCARB
Michael T. Edgar, NCARB@MichaelTEdgar·
@mwmoedinger @antonia_mdprjct This is not to say the prejudice and hardship were not real. They were — and still are. We recently removed a GC for being disrespectful and inappropriate. It still angers me.
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Michael T. Edgar, NCARB
Michael T. Edgar, NCARB@MichaelTEdgar·
@mwmoedinger @antonia_mdprjct Women in Architecture I was fortunate: Internship under Virginia Tanzmann, FAIA. Syracuse '69 50% of my USC BARCH '92 class were women. Many went to Harvard for MARCH APX chapter was co-ed Met future wife at last paper & pencil ARE (8/9 - first go) She was valedictorian of her HS
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Antonia
Antonia@antonia_mdprjct·
@MichaelTEdgar I love this ARE love story. You were definitely busy that year!
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Michael T. Edgar, NCARB
Michael T. Edgar, NCARB@MichaelTEdgar·
@antonia_mdprjct /** Because I was licensed in December 1997, I was grandfathered for IDP verification to get my NCARB certificate. My wife would need to pay $5000 for her broadly experienced architect review to get NCARB. She is still mad! /end.
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Michael T. Edgar, NCARB
Michael T. Edgar, NCARB@MichaelTEdgar·
@antonia_mdprjct Buried the lede. January 1998 bought a house together March, took first moonlighting client May got engaged July, closed on house August, opened firm March 1999 fiancé left well paying job to join me October 1999 got married. May 2026, she should be back from lunch soon! /5
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