Mocha

Hello Bitcoin & MSTR friends. Please note that I've updated my handle to @MochaStrategy to better reflect the overall theme and vibe of my account. 🫠 Thank you all for your support. 🧡 And if you haven't already, please check out @milkmochabear. Klova Studios has created a global treasure in the form of Milk & Mocha Bear, and the world is a brighter place thanks to their love. 🩶🤎💚💛

@timevalueofbtc Nik this is such gold. 😭😭

😂😂 PERFECTION

@DzambhalaHODL Consistently consistent with himself. Every day. 😂🍻

Exciting bottom signal

@bramk 😂😂

Bing bong

@Z06Z07 @matteopelleg Strategy does so much more than hold Bitcoin. They manage and tranche risk, and issue novel digital credit instruments, allowing investors exposure to Bitcoin with nearly all of the Bitcoin volatility stripped off. 🍻

@matteopelleg Why does anything trade at a premium or discount to NAV or MSRP? Why is Mag7 P/EPS is about 30 and $TSLA is 150? Why do we have current and forward P/EPS? It looks like sentiment outweighs fundamentals(in both directions), hence the divergence.

i will never understand why people think that a business that does nothing but hold bitcoin should be worth more than the bitcoin itself (positive mnav)

@BitPaine Because the madman is 100% transparent, I get to see in what ways he is mad, what mad things he has planned, and whether I would like to invest in his madness. 🍻 (Spoiler: I gave all my money to the madman.)

Michael Saylor has literally the *least fraudulent* business model in the history of mankind. $MSTR does two things: raise capital and buy bitcoin. He clearly and openly states the statistics and performance underlying every single equity he has issued on his website. He clearly and openly delineates how he expects his equities to perform and the math behind them on his earnings calls. The only possible way he could be committing fraud is if he were not actually buying bitcoin with the capital he is raising, but the company is audited and third parties track likely addresses on an open blockchain. Literally any other company on the face of the planet has a higher likelihood of being fraudulent.

@TheRealPlanC I already have this open on a tab in my browser. Can't wait to watch/listen this weekend! 🍻🧡

We did a Joe Rogan-style 3-hour deep dive.

@moneyordebt Can't wait to see this field develop! 🍻🚀 From one ex-HPC guy to another: thanks again for all you've done for the Bitcoin space, Stephen. 🧡

Important insight. Bitcoin is building a whole branch of economics rooted in physics of networks. Austrian school roots as well but goes beyond. And has an open laboratory. — The emerging toolkit treats money and settlement as a networked dynamical system: •Nodes / edges: wallets, exchanges, institutions, channels •Flows: transactions, liquidity, capital inflow/outflow •State variables: price, hash rate, difficulty, liquidity indices •Conservation / constraints: fixed supply (21M), issuance schedule •Dynamics: feedback, shocks, propagation, lagged forcing Concepts imported from physics: •Scale invariance / power laws (your \sim t^{5.8} work) •Discrete scale invariance (DSI) → log-periodic structure •Self-organized criticality → bubble/avalanche behavior •Nonlinear transport / Burgers-type dynamics (your δ-equation) •Phase transitions (adoption thresholds, ETF regime change) This is essentially econophysics applied to a monetary network with unusually clean boundary conditions.

@MSTRTrueNorth Love the new intro! 🧡🍻

Waiting For The World To Catch Up | True North Podcast | Ep. 59 x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@Z06Z07 💯 No need to suffer fools, Grain. 🫡🧡

Just a heads up. Anyone accuses me of AI slop, it's an instant block.

@Johndnolan4884 @AdamBLiv I love your consistently enthusiastic use of emoji, John! 😂😂🧡🚀 Cheers. 🍻

@AdamBLiv 🧡🧡🧡🚀🚀🚀💥💥💥🔥🔥🔥👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻✔️✔️✔️🐂🐂🐂🐐🐐🐐

🔥THE ULTIMATE MSTR BULL CASE - 12 MINUTES TO BLOW YOUR MIND🔥 Strategy is going to buy ALL of the Bitcoin and they will be the most valuable company in the world. Don't believe me? Watch this video. In this video, I break down the craziest, and somehow still realistic, 10-year MSTR model we’ve built yet. Using a framework based on what Strategy has already done with MSTR and STRC capital raises, I show how Bitcoin NAV could compound into something utterly monstrous over the next decade, even with a built-in 2 week monthly cool-off period where ZERO CAPITAL is raised. This is where the thesis gets wild. Debt gets crushed as a percentage of enterprise value. Preferred scales, but stabilizes. Bitcoin NAV goes vertical. And the first thing that breaks in the model is not the balance sheet. It’s Bitcoin scarcity itself. THAT'S THE REAL STORY HERE:

@btcfuturist @StrategyMaxi @Strategy @saylor Oh, gotcha. That's fair. I can see both sides here, but something I like about prioritizing total BTC is that (1) it accelerates us to terminal accumulation, which will benefit all BTC holders, and (2) being the largest holder will unlock future opportunities for shareholders.🍻

@MochaStrategy @StrategyMaxi @Strategy @saylor "over bps" implied it's not important. So I asked for clarification.

I am 100% Strategy because Strategy prioritizes Total BTC over BPS. At endgame, Terminal Accumulation Theory plays out and BTC is no longer available to purchase. You need the MOST. Strategy becomes the most trusted issuer of money. Shareholders become rich. Other BTCTCs will not have the same trust as Strategy for issuing Digital Credit.

@BTC_Hypnotist That's terrible! Have you seen any press releases that explain why? Hope you find your workaround. 🧡

Looks like brokers in Australia have blocked retail investors to buy any perpetual pref like $SATA $STRC . Share your workaround if you know how 🥲

@btcfuturist @StrategyMaxi @Strategy @saylor I don't see where Maxi suggested ignoring per share return? I do agree that if there are no more BTC to accumulate, the company will have to pivot to providing other products/services if they want to add shareholder value beyond just being a proxy for BTC returns.

@MochaStrategy @StrategyMaxi @Strategy @saylor Basically, some will always be on the market but if the company ignores per share return (as op suggests) the investor seeking gains lacks purpose.

@AdamBLiv WE WILL DINE TOGETHER ONE DAY IN VALHALLA DINNER WILL BE ON ME

@MochaStrategy WE ARE GOIN' WAY HIGHER, CAPTAIN MOCHA

🔥STRATEGY WILL BE THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY - BY FAR🔥 Strategy bulls need to understand how insane this 10-year balance sheet model actually is. I modeled a simple cadence. We just saw two weeks of some awesome capital raising with MSTR/STRC, didn't we? So going foward, let's assume this: Every 4 weeks, Strategy raises capital at the same MSTR / STRC ratio as the last two Bitcoin buy announcements. But only for 2 weeks out of the month. The other 2 weeks are dead, zero capital raised, full cool-off, full return-to-par window. No infinite ATM fantasy. No permanent intravenous dilution drip for the spreadsheet autists to cry about. Half the month, the machine is literally OFF. Then I assume: Bitcoin grows 25% per year, STRC preferred issuance grows 5% month over month, and all proceeds go into Bitcoin. Starting point in the model - March 2026: Bitcoin NAV = $54.7B Enterprise value = $65.1B Preferred outstanding = $10.0B Debt outstanding = $8.2B At the start, pref is 15.4% of EV and debt is 12.6% of EV. That is where the bears freeze the frame and start hyperventilating into a paper bag. Now watch what happens when time passes and the engine keeps doing what it’s doing. By March 2027: Bitcoin NAV = $119.2B EV = $141.9B Pref = $34.8B Debt = $8.2B So after one year, Bitcoin NAV has more than doubled. Preferred gets bigger, yes. But debt as a share of EV gets chopped from 12.6% down to 5.8%. That is the first humiliation ritual. The liabilities did not disappear. They got outgrown. By March 2028: Bitcoin NAV = $240.2B EV = $285.9B Pref = $79.4B Debt = $8.2B Now debt is just 2.9% of EV. So the company goes from “look at all that debt!!!” to “that debt is becoming decorative.” It starts to look less like a capital structure problem and more like a historical artifact preserved in amber for future MBA students to misinterpret. By March 2029: Bitcoin NAV = $464.1B EV = $552.3B Pref = $159.4B Debt = $7.2B Now debt is just 1.3% of EV. The debt stack is basically entering hospice care at this point. By March 2030: Bitcoin NAV = $874.4B EV = $1.04T Pref = $303.2B Debt = $1.4B Debt drops to 0.13% of EV. Read that again. 0.13%. The convert stack has effectively been vaporized by scale. Not because someone performed magic, but because a growing Bitcoin asset base plus disciplined capital intake makes the fixed liabilities look microscopic. By March 2031: Bitcoin NAV = $1.62T EV = $1.93T Pref = $561.4B Debt = $0.8B Debt is now 0.04% of EV. At this point, talking about the converts as the central bear case is like warning the public that a trillion-dollar fortress may be threatened by a garden hose. By March 2032: Bitcoin NAV = $2.98T EV = $3.54T Pref = $1.03T Debt = $0.8B Debt falls to 0.02% of EV. Then by March 2033, debt is basically gone in the model, while: Bitcoin NAV = $5.42T EV = $6.45T Pref = $1.86T And here is the really important part: The preferred stack does get enormous in dollar terms. But as a percentage of EV, it does not spiral into insanity. It rises from 15.4% at the start to roughly: 24.5% in 2027 27.8% in 2028 28.9% in 2029 29.1% in 2030 29.1% in 2031 28.9% in 2032 28.8% in 2033 28.6% in 2034 28.5% in 2035 28.4% in 2036 That means the preferred layer becomes large, but it stabilizes. The model is not saying pref eats the company alive. The model is saying pref becomes a scalable capital intake layer while the Bitcoin asset base outruns it hard enough to keep the structure stable. By March 2034: Bitcoin NAV = $9.84T EV = $11.71T Pref = $3.35T By March 2035: Bitcoin NAV = $17.8T EV = $21.18T Pref = $6.04T By March 2036: Bitcoin NAV = $32.12T EV = $38.22T Pref = $10.86T Now obviously the model becomes physically absurd because BTC held would mathematically run past available supply around 2034. That matters. It means the model stops being a literal forecast and starts becoming a demonstration of system pressure. And that is even more bullish. What do you think happens to the Bitcoin price? Because the thing that breaks first is not debt. It is not preferred. It is Bitcoin scarcity. The structure survives the stress test better than the asset supply does. That is psychotic. That is bullish. That is the part the market still does not understand. Under this framework, Strategy is slowly replacing maturity risk with perpetual capital, refinancing anxiety with preferred demand, and fragile liabilities with an expanding Bitcoin fortress. Again, this is with a built-in 2-week monthly cool-off. Half the month, nothing happens. No raising. No nonstop aggression. Just a reset period. And even with that restraint, the numbers get grotesque: Bitcoin NAV: $54.7B to $32.1T Debt % of EV: 12.6% to basically 0% Pref % of EV: 15.4% to a stable high-20s range So the real story is not “wow, look how much pref they issued.” The real story is they are building a balance sheet where debt dies, preferred scales, Bitcoin compounds, and scarcity becomes the bottleneck. That is not a normal company. That is a corporate absorption machine wearing a public equity costume while half the analyst class stands outside with a clipboard trying to calculate book value like it’s still the Bush administration.

@btcfuturist @StrategyMaxi @Strategy @saylor Apologies, I misread your original comment. It looks like you're wondering how Strategy common stock will go up if there's no more BTC to accumulate into BTC yield?

@MochaStrategy @StrategyMaxi @Strategy @saylor No

@StrategyMaxi @btcfuturist @Strategy @saylor Furthermore, by that time most of the capital gain due to adoption will already have manifested in price, and we'll all just be accessing some form of credit against the Bitcoin, which will continue to rise in value at some rate above the S&P 500 or comparable index.

@btcfuturist @Strategy @saylor Explain more please. I do not understand what you are trying to say.

@piovincenzo_ I saw that. He must like your videos! 🥰👏

The boss retweeted this one

If Michael Saylor was in the movie Gladiator

@AdamBLiv Love the chart! 🧡 I think you have a typo in the x-axis labels. It looks like you're using today's inputs (e.g. $10b of preferreds issued) but the x-axis begins at March 2025 rather than 2026. 🍻