PassiveBubble

1.2K posts

PassiveBubble

PassiveBubble

@MultiMismanaged

~20 years L/S hedge fund career, emphasis on the S. All things stocks, themes and macro. Hoping the pod and passive bubble keeps creating inefficiencies

Katılım Şubat 2019
1.2K Takip Edilen1.4K Takipçiler
PassiveBubble
PassiveBubble@MultiMismanaged·
The way I see it, you may get less clicks on $RDDT from search traffic, but the number of eyeballs seeing $RDDT content is going to explode. You still have a large portion of the most active users going directly to the platform through desktop and mobile. I think you will ultimately see more user sign-ups, traffic and then add a significant new revenue stream from the LLM deals that get renegotiated.
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NearReality
NearReality@AlThingsF1nanc3·
@MultiMismanaged Do you have concerns about them being able to convert Google overview users into Reddit App users? Because less clicks on links less ad rev and so on which the stock will follow. I think human psychology will lead users to reddit over A.I answers.
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PassiveBubble
PassiveBubble@MultiMismanaged·
$RDDT bear case on google search algorithm changes is completely backwards. Right now licensing from LLMs is a very small portion of $RDDT revenue. It is about to explode exponentially higher in the next couple years. The number of impressions for $RDDT content is going to explode higher, which will lead to more people being exposed to the platform, and drive more user growth and content creation. I predict these two items will significantly offset any decline in user traffic because of users getting content from google search vs reddit directly. Long story short, $RDDT is a massive AI winner and not an AI loser. As the market figures this out, the stock may have a sharp rise. Ironically, $GOOG itself was in the same position a year ago, where investors perceived it as an AI loser, and is now poised to be the most valuable company in the world as reality set in.
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PassiveBubble
PassiveBubble@MultiMismanaged·
$PESI announced a going concern opinion on their recent earnings call and now they're issuing equity at a low share price. In addition insiders never buy stock, and they have shown an inability to execute or hit expections for many years. I want to like this, but management / the business have some deeper issues.
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Darius
Darius@risk2rise·
$BLND volume approaching 5x today. nice to see Haveli add another 2 million shares the last few days, wouldnt be surprised to see them adding more again today (big intraday move, was down -16% at one pt). as rates come down later this year this will rip
Darius tweet media
Darius@risk2rise

$BLND K.I.S.S - primed to rip for a few reasons: Warsh will push to lower rates. if Iran deal happens inflation concerns will abate. 10-year has a real chance to move sub 4 this year. all of these will drive mortgage volumes

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PassiveBubble
PassiveBubble@MultiMismanaged·
Haveli, a PE firm with board seats, just bought more $BLND for the first time this year, as soon as the window opened up. This seems like a fairly bullish signal. The stock being down on the open today feels like a great opportunity to add.
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PassiveBubble
PassiveBubble@MultiMismanaged·
$RDDT is valued at 22x forward EPS and just grew revenue 69% yoy last quarter. Seems like one of the most mispriced stocks in the market these days. I have been looking to own companies that are bucketed as AI losers but are actually likely AI winners, and I believe $RDDT fits into this camp.
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PassiveBubble
PassiveBubble@MultiMismanaged·
@TheWiseIC I was using adjusted EPS, not GAAP. Roughly agree with you if you're using GAAP
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
I still think $RDDT is one of the few non-AI names that is extremely compelling. Just by how fast they’re growing + true profitability post-earnings. Honestly still not sure why they’re underperforming the market…
Serenity tweet media
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PassiveBubble
PassiveBubble@MultiMismanaged·
$MCEM just released a monster Q1. Partially explains the recent share price run-up.
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PassiveBubble
PassiveBubble@MultiMismanaged·
I agree that this is a big positive for $RDDT not a negative as the market seems to be saying today. They have valuable data, and this data is going to be increasingly monetized as LLMs seek better real-time data.
Marc Lehman@markflowchatter

Def a big positive For $RDDT looks like GOOG is making some positive changes to AIO and AI Mode. crushes the bear thesis on $RDDT - #1) more direct links embedded inside AI answers, #2) Explore suggestions puses users to external sites, and #3) previews of community content to help connect back to the OG author. blog.google/products-and-p…

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PassiveBubble
PassiveBubble@MultiMismanaged·
I’ll repeat that $SOFI is going to hurt a lot of retail investors soon. We’re worried about college grads and recent college grad employment. So the company sitting with $30B+ of high ticket personal loans to this cohort is exactly where I would not want to hide out. Layered in the absurd 8x+ tangible book value multiple, and the fact that book value would be a lot lower if they followed CECL accounting on their loans instead of phony market to model accounting, the risks are really continuing to mount.
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PassiveBubble
PassiveBubble@MultiMismanaged·
@DataDInvesting Have you noticed anything dodgy yet? stock down about 50% from when I started writing about it. FV marks continue to go up through fake spread marking, despite all signs showing spreads are widening. Curious if any of this concerns you
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Chris Hoeger
Chris Hoeger@DataDInvesting·
Yes, as a general rule of thumb, hateful people are the ones who have fun by deriding and mocking others. You have my word that if there are dodgy practices, I'll call them out and expect them to be remedied or I won't be in the position for long. I don't countenance unethical behavior.
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Singularity
Singularity@S1ngularity0·
@MultiMismanaged I can’t believe people are still pulling the same arguments from 2022 that have been disproven time and time again lol. If you want to know truly why you are wrong, great sources like @DataDInvesting have covered this ad nauseum. LPB & cohort are some hints.
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Nick
Nick@Bjthomas727·
@MultiMismanaged Short it and let's see who's still left standing.
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