Singularity

$SOFI $HOOD $LMND I've been a $SOFI investor for many years and held through the "dead money" $4-6 range. The thesis was that a digital-first fintech with the full regulatory moat of a bank plus strong leadership like @anthonynoto could disrupt slow, entrenched incumbents. I was also an early $HOOD investor ($20-30 range) with a similar thesis but without the regulatory moat. Community members like @DataDInvesting @Futurenvesting @FunOfInvesting @Kross_Roads @amitisinvesting were instrumental in building a strong community and sharing great DD. I'm seeing the same pattern in $LMND. The thesis is nearly identical, just applied to insurance instead of banking. $LMND combines $HOOD's technology differentiation with $SOFI's regulatory strength and reliability (not to the same degree as a bank charter though!). Recent earnings show a clear inflection in premium growth relative to expenses. SBC is being left in the dust by expanding growth. Comparing the two, $LMND is on the same path to profitability that $SOFI just achieved—and that triggered a massive re-rating. From 2021-2023 both $SOFI and $LMND faced brutal industry headwinds. Both management teams proved battle-tested, growing responsibly through adversity. Both attract extremely loyal customers and strong member growth—$LMND's growth without sacrificing Annual Dollar Retention. What insurance company has a nearly 1-million-person waitlist for new products? Only $LMND. I'm still deep in DD, having read every 10-Q and listened to every earnings call since they went public. Management's execution consistency rivals $SOFI's through the toughest periods. I believe $LMND offers the same multi-year opportunity that $HOOD and $SOFI did. Using first principles reasoning, if you were to conceptualize what a lean and effective insurance company would look like in an AI-dominated future, you would get $LMND. Just like you would with $HOOD or $SOFI in finance. Not a full DD post—just wanted to share my thoughts. Would love to hear the community's take. Shoutout to @PaperBagInvest @Neil_X10 for their excellent content on $LMND. Highly recommend them for anyone new to this name.

@varuninvesting Yes, they’ve focused on infrastructure across regulatory (charter) & tech (galileo, technisys, peach, tried to buy Apex clearing etc.). Sofi plus is the “Amazon prime” membership equivalent that cross sells across the whole stack. Highly accretive ex-CAC & lowest unit economics.

@S1ngularity0 This is useful, I haven’t done a full breakdown. So you think they have infrastructure and scale and pass it on to the customer?

I ranked every fintech company on one question. Does AI help this business or kill it? S tier. $HOOD: Robinhood shipped more products last year than most banks ship in ten. Banking, credit cards, prediction markets, futures, international. This is a high velocity disruption machine with a strong engineer culture. $V: Visa built a way for an AI agent to pay on your behalf. It gets its own token, you set the limits, and if it goes rogue Visa revokes it. Any agent from any company plugs in, over 100 partners already building. $NU: a digital bank across Brazil, Mexico and Colombia. Their CEO doesn't say they added AI to banking but they built banking around AI Their own models approve every loan individually in under a second. A tier. $MA: same business as Visa, same agent tokens, plus a verifiable record of intent built with Google. But Visa supports every AI payment protocol while Mastercard is making a narrower bet, highest end of A Tier $SOFI: most people think SoFi is a lending app and miss the real business. It owns Galileo, the payment plumbing other fintechs run on. Robinhood debit cards, Southwest reward cards, and the US Treasury card for all run on it. $ADYEN: costs. Once you've integrated payments for Microsoft, Uber or Spotify, you don't rip it out for something more complicated. Their AI already delivers a 6% conversion lift and a 3% cost reduction on a single tech stack. B tier. $AFRM: Max Levchin built this, the original PayPal CTO, and his leadership is better than people give him credit for. Affirm's AI is transformer based underwriting, so every transaction makes the credit model smarter. $COIN: They built a protocol that lets AI agents pay with stablecoins, and even AWS built on top of it. If you think stablecoins matter long term, the winner is Coinbase or Stripe. C tier. $INTU: most people's taxes aren't complicated, and TurboTax has been the trust layer for 30 years. The trust isn't there yet but culture shifts, the way we went from avoiding strangers to getting into an Uber. $KLAR: Klarna replaced 700 support agents with AI, their AI is about cutting costs mainly.. $UPST: The problem is AI only works on the data it has. Loans are defaulting at 1.5x what the model predicted D tier. $PYPL: When an AI agent does the shopping, it doesn't see a button and it has no brand loyalty. Their own CEO said years of underinvestment mean they now have to modernize the platform. $XYZ: Dorsey just cut 40% of staff, which I think is genuine bloat: too much hiring & strange acquisitions (remember Tidal). Focus seems off and are not moving as quickly as competitors. Full ranking is on my youtube: @InvestingMoatswithVarun" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@InvestingMoat… Which one did I get wrong, and why?

@hdcharting Me too. It’s trading at under 2x cash/equivalents + digital assets not held for collateral. The margin accretive services potential is not at all priced in. We just need clarity to finally pass.

Bought some $BTGO ⚔️ Best value & fundamentals out there right now

@DirtyCheapStock @AlecTorelli Same thing as Lemonade…lol…

@AlecTorelli Hey Alec, take a look at ROOT. Same thing as Lemonade, but with a profit.

How This AI Company Could Disrupt a $500B Industry (My $LMND thesis)

@woodhaus2 Franz I’d love to get a premium large SUV from Tesla as we need one to complement our Model Y (not Y L). A direct competitor to Mercedes E/S class, I’d 100% switch to Tesla. The issue with X was that Y became so good over time the gap thinned out. So please keep it in mind!

After nearly 18 years I can stop working on Model S and X. We put so much love into these products, but will continue to pour that into the future products. Thanks to everyone who believed in and supported these cars through the years. We strived for the best and will never stop. Saying goodbye to something great and making room for something even greater!

@ObedientBread This is like comparing Amazon to Ebay back in 2000s. You’re comparing an asset light business to another investing heavily in infrastructure that compounds/returns over long term. Then you picked metrics that prioritize asset light models.

$HOOD vs $SOFI based on management effectiveness…

@StableBread I’m not saying ROOT isn’t undervalued, I’m just saying those who make these kinds of comparisons I’ve found usually don’t understand what drives LMND vs others.

@StableBread This is what happens when you only look about the numbers without understanding what’s driving them. From a first principles perspective LMND has the most efficient model with scale. As they cross sell into car - which has far inflated IFP - they will trounce ROOT.

Root Insurance $ROOT trades at 2.9x book with 15-20% normalized ROE. Lemonade $LMND trades at 9.3x book with negative ROE. $ROOT has ~2x Lemonade's revenue and reported $35.9M of Q1 net income while $LMND lost $35.8M. Side-by-side: 1. Market cap: $ROOT $937M vs. $LMND $4.07B. 2. FY 2025 revenue: $ROOT $1.52B vs. $LMND $738M. 3. Q1 2026 net income: $ROOT +$35.9M vs. $LMND -$35.8M. 4. P/B: $ROOT 2.9x vs. $LMND 9.3x. 5. P/Sales (FY25): $ROOT 0.6x vs. $LMND 5.5x. 6. ROE: $ROOT 15-20% normalized vs. $LMND -6.7%. On a gross loss ratio basis, Root came in at 54.5% in Q1 vs $LMND ~62%--Root underwrites the same dollar of premium with fewer losses. $LMND also still cedes 31% of premiums to reinsurers (down from 55% in Q1 2025), while Root retains ~98% of its book... So $LMND's reported numbers still benefit from a reinsurance buffer Root no longer has. A few reasons the spread persists: 1. $LMND has a broader product mix (auto, renters, homeowners, life, pet), so investors price in cross-sell optionality even though auto is where the actual growth sits. 2. $LMND has stronger brand presence and viral marketing. 3. $LMND's "AI-first" story is sexier to retail flows even though the unit economics haven't caught up. The bull case for $LMND requires them to close the underwriting gap with Root over the next 2-3 years. The bull case for $ROOT just requires the current pricing model to keep working. One is a story stock. The other is already profitable at a lower valuation. Here's what could compress the spread: 1. Continued combined ratio outperformance from Root through 2026. 2. The new $75M Root buyback program activating. 3. $LMND reporting another quarter of GAAP losses while Root keeps reporting profits. Or the market could stay irrational longer than fundamentals deserve. Even if the gap doesn't fully close, $ROOT at 2.9x book with 15-20% ROE is fair-to-cheap on its own merits.

@KrisPatel99 Actually this derisks them. Becoming an AI ETF + service provider via omniverse/groot etc helps push them away from semiconductor cyclicality. Would be worse otherwise.

$NVDA One of the benefits and possible risks $NVDA is taking is equity stakes in other companies. Most of the investments are in adjacent companies that will live and die by the AI sword. If conditions arise where AI does get proven out to be a bubble and has a spontaneous drawdown from a panicked market, $NVDA will get hit but the equity stakes will also introduce more selling pressure from the markdown on investment gains. It’s this drawdown that will mint millionaires.

@JustinvestToday Nu customer base is sticky, enormous, and data rich. High cross sell opportunity with high margin because they don’t need infra like meli.

So for 20b more, you can buy $meli over $nu and they have a growing credit business as well.... why should you own $nu? Just thiughts

@Dr_Crossroads $PLTR is more enticing given the growth rate and stronger moat IMO. I don’t think it’s overvalued anymore, closer to fair value given the 80%+ growth rate.

$NET kept falling. The only thing wrong with Cloudflare's stock is the share price. Let's see if it can get to the $150-160 range.

@stevenfiorillo Massive lowball on $28 by 2028, I’m expecting $30-40 next year if macro recovers. Trading a stock doubling EPS YoY at 20-25x PE makes no sense.

SoFi Technologies: Record Q1 Results, Yet The Stock Looks Undervalued $SOFI seekingalpha.com/article/490109…

@amitisinvesting Amit, don’t forget $ZETA

Software stocks today: $NOW +5.7% $DDOG +28.2% $IGV +3.6% $ADBE +2.8% $MSFT +2.4% $PLTR +2.7% $MSFT +2.8% $CRM +3.2% Semiconductor stocks today: $MU -3.8% $SNDK -7.1% $AAOI -14% $INTC -2.8% $ARM -10% $AMD -3.7% $SMH -1.9% I think everyone is really waiting for a Semis to Software rotation, but I’m not sure we easily get one… Do I think software is cheap? Yes. The software names like $PLTR $APP $DDOG also proved great earnings. Are the semiconductor names overextended? I mean, look at the charts. However, their earnings have also been INCREDIBLE. It doesn’t feel YET like the market can have $SMH and $IGV rally together, I think the only reason $IGV is up is because $SMH is down. But if they were to rally together…it would probably be net new capital coming into the broader market vs people selling their semis to buy software or selling software to buy semis. Just one day, likely need much more data to see if a rotation is happening… Are you buying software over semis here? Rotating? Adding on dips?

@wealthmatica Doesn't $PLTR already delve into business intelligence? Don't think they have a shot vs them.

Mark my words. In about 5 years – the core conversation around $ZETA will not be AdTech/Marketing Tech. It’ll be about a whole new revenue opportunity for the taking… Business Intelligence. 1P intent data + 1P ID data = superior BI $ZETA

@KrisPatel99 +1 major thing: Nvidia is taking stakes in all the major AI startups & has the best visibility into who is primed to “win”. They’re trading compute for equity which memory names aren’t doing & AMD is doing the inverse (selling equity). Nvidia is becoming an AI ETF.

The market is ignoring $NVDA right now and seems locked into the memory theme. They hear on earnings calls that there’s a memory shortage and start bidding things up. The reality is that $NVDA will ultimately benefit from jevons paradox way more than the market is giving it credit for. Multi-head Latent Attention (MLA) and Mixture-of-Experts (MoE)—suggest a paradigm shift that favors Nvidia’s "compute-centric" dominance over the "capacity-heavy" business model of memory manufacturers like Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung. While memory has traditionally been the primary bottleneck (the "Memory Wall"), DeepSeek’s breakthroughs effectively "hack" the hardware requirements to do more with less RAM. Compute will be the ultimate winner, not memory. bain.com/insights/deeps…

@aletechview I say this as a previous PayPal investor…the earnings were horrible and they gutted their future by removing old management team.

$PYPL shares outstanding continue to decrease, buybacks are doing their thing. The market continues to punish great earnings.

@TommyTwoClubs ?? Shopify is suddenly going to be interested in a bidding war for ebay just because Ryan is throwing up a ridiculous offer? In what way is that brilliant?

GameStop is not actually buying eBay. eBay will turn the offer down. $GME wants someone else like Shopify to bid more and run the price up. $GME currently holds 22,176,000 shares of $EBAY in call options. Brilliant move. GameStop is about to make more than a billion dollars and they don’t have to buy anything. $GME is big winner here. $40-60 incoming.

@FunOfInvesting Sofi has been hiring top talent from tech companies indicating an inflection of product launches. Is development primarily on asset light fee based products? Or backend optimization? Why doesn’t SOFI do an investor day to highlight the technology and control the narrative?

If you could ask $SOFI anything after seeing the Q1 results, what would it be?

@Dr_Crossroads @sytaylor Roy, have you looked into $BTGO? Could be a big beneficiary, trading at $1B market cap

Fantastic post on the Clarity Act compromise by the brilliant @sytaylor. "Big institutions need legal clarity to use this stuff. They now have a draft. I cannot understate how huge that is." HUGE ramifications for those providing digital rails. Adoption, given regulator clarity, will absolutely accelerate.

@finance_intell I don’t understand these pt cuts. Analysts had their targets based on the guidance sofi already gave. They beat significantly for Q1 and then guided the same as before….so that means price targets become revised down?? It’s literally the same or better than last time lol

$SOFI LOTS OF PRICE TARGET REVISIONS🚨 Analyst Updates 🏦 🔴 Jeffrey Adelson · Morgan Stanley Sell | PT $18 → $16 🟢 Kyle Peterson · Needham Buy | PT $33 → $25 🟡 Timothy Chiodo · UBS Hold | PT $24.50 → $21 🟡 Terry Ma · Barclays Hold | PT $18 🟢 Kyle Joseph · Stephens Buy | PT $26 → $25 🔴 Tim Switzer · KBW Sell | PT $17 → $16