Raghav Wadhwa@raghavwadhwa
Coal Gasification. India's largest import substitution plays since solar.
The Cabinet just approved a ₹37,500 crore scheme to back it. The headline number is not the real number.
The real number is ₹2.77 lakh crore. That's what India paid last year importing LNG, urea, ammonia, methanol and ammonium nitrate. Every product on that list can be made from coal.
Almost nobody is asking who is already building this.
So, I went and pulled the order book.
First, what coal gasification actually is.
It converts coal into syngas, a mix of carbon monoxide and hydrogen. Syngas then becomes methanol, ammonia, urea, ammonium nitrate, Synthetic Natural Gas, hydrogen and industrial fuels. So instead of paying foreign suppliers in dollars, India pays domestic miners in rupees.
The scheme:
🔹 Outlay: ₹37,500 crore
🔹 Target: gasify 75 MT of coal (national goal 100 MT by 2030)
🔹 Investment expected: ₹2.5 lakh crore to ₹3 lakh crore
🔹 Subsidy: up to 20% of plant and machinery cost
🔹 Cap per project: ₹5,000 crore
🔹 Cap per product (except SNG and urea): ₹9,000 crore
🔹 Cap per entity group: ₹12,000 crore
🔹 Coal linkage extended to 30 years
The 30-year linkage is the line most analysts will miss. Coal gasification plants are ₹10,000 crore plus capex. No board commits that without feedstock certainty for the full asset life. This is what de-risks the entire scheme.
The order book is not theoretical. The new ₹37,500 crore outlay builds on the ₹8,500 crore scheme from January 2024 under which 8 projects worth ₹6,233 crore are already in execution. The pipeline has been quietly building for 18 months.
The value chain has four layers. Here is who is already in.
👉Layer 1, coal owners:
🔹 Coal India: parent of BCGCL (JV with BHEL for coal-to-ammonium nitrate, ₹11,782 crore at Jharsuguda) and CGIL (JV with GAIL for coal-to-SNG at Sonepur Bazari, ₹13,052 crore). Plus, a standalone ₹12,214 crore coal-to-SNG project in Maharashtra. ₹1,350 crore incentive already received per project.
🔹 NLC India, NTPC: lignite and coal-linked optionality.
👉Layer 2, technology and EPC:
🔹 BHEL: 49% equity in BCGCL. Won LSTK-1 (gasification + air separation + steam) and LSTK-2 (raw gas purification) of the BCGCL project. Uses its own indigenous Pressurised Fluidised Bed Gasifier technology. The only Indian company with a commercial coal gasification tech stack.
🔹 Larsen & Toubro: won LSTK-3 (ammonia synthesis) and LSTK-4 (nitric acid + ammonium nitrate + prilling) of the same BCGCL project. Both booked as "large" orders by L&T Energy Hydrocarbon Onshore.
🔹 Thermax, ISGEC Heavy Engineering, Triveni Turbine: second-order exposure on boilers, steam systems, turbines and auxiliaries.
👉Layer 3, downstream chemicals and fertilisers:
🔹 GAIL: equity in Talcher Talcher Fertilizers Ltd and CGIL plus offtake economics on coal-to-SNG.
🔹 RCF, NFL, GNFC, GSFC, Chambal, Coromandel, Tata Chemicals: long-cycle demand and feedstock optionality.
👉Layer 4, ammonium nitrate, methanol and explosives users:
🔹 Deepak Fertilisers and Petrochemicals: 40% market share in Technical Ammonium Nitrate. 587 KTPA current capacity. Building 376 KTPA expansion at Gopalpur for Q1 FY27 that takes total past 1 MMTPA. Backward integrated via 500 KTPA ammonia plant at Taloja that cut India's ammonia imports by roughly 20%. Also, one of India's five major methanol producers.
🔹 Solar Industries: India's largest industrial explosives player. Heavy AN user. Margin sensitive to domestic AN economics.
🔹 GNFC: methanol, formic acid, acetic acid. Signed 50-50 JV with INEOS in November 2024 for a 600 KTPA acetic acid plant at Bharuch.
🔹 Petronet LNG, Gujarat Gas, IGL, MGL: substitution-risk angle over a decade as coal-to-SNG scales.
So, who makes money first?
Order book visibility is highest today for BHEL and L&T. Both have already converted BCGCL into hard orders. The ₹37,500 crore outlay expands the addressable pipeline by roughly 9x to 10x over the previous scheme. EPC and gasification equipment is the cleanest near-term play.
Coal India benefits two ways. Direct equity in three gasification projects with ₹1,350 crore per project already received. Indirect: 1.3 MT annual captive coal offtake into BCGCL alone is the kind of long-tail thermal coal demand that protects against the secular decline narrative.
Deepak Fertilisers benefits through market structure. BCGCL's 0.66 MMTPA eventually competes, but India today still imports ammonium nitrate from Russia. The near-term effect is domestic AN scaling without import dependence, lining up with Deepak's own 1 MMTPA expansion.
Most policy announcements fade in one news cycle.
This one looks like a 5–10 year industrial buildout.
India is trying to convert its largest domestic resource into a substitute for its biggest import vulnerabilities.
First-order winners: coal owners and EPC giants.
Second-order winners: chemicals, fertilisers and industrial explosives.
Long-term pressure point: gas-import-linked margins.
📌Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not a buy or sell recommendation.