$NBIS and Chill

$NBIS: My NEW Updated Nebius ARR Valuation Model and 12-Month PRICE TARGET of $317 per share 🔥 A BACK OF THE NAPKIN MODEL: On the Q1 2026 call, Nebius reiterated ARR guidance of $7–$9B by end of 2026 for the AI Cloud business. H1 2027 ARR ESTIMATE: Management also raised 2026 CapEx guidance to $20–$25B and noted they expect to bring more compute online in the first half of 2027 than they did in all of 2026. If the compute added in 2026 supports the midpoint ~$8B end-2026 ARR, then adding even more in 1H 2027 could reasonably support more than another ~$8B incremental ARR. To be conservative, assume the same amount: this gets us to approximately $16B ARR by end of H1 2027. GROWTH RATE: Growth rate and ARR Multiple: Achieving the 2026 midpoint of ~$8B ARR would represent massive 700% YoY growth (Q1 2026 AI Cloud ARR already hit $1.92B). The implied trajectory above keeps growth well over 100% into 2027. BEAR MARKET ARR MULTIPLE: In the 2022 bear market trough, no major cloud/SaaS names traded below ~6x ARR. In this hyper-growth AI context, even under conservative/bearish macro assumptions, a 6x ARR multiple is extremely conservative. With inflation costs rising due to price of oil (possibly short term) and rising probability of reduction in guided for rate cuts or even the possibility of a rate hike, I will assume for my base case a BEAR MARKET multiple of 6X ARR So 6x $16B ARR equals a $96B market cap. SHARES OUTSTANDING: Nebius reported ~253.9 million shares outstanding as of Q1 2026. The company raised ~$4.34B in convertible senior notes with an initial conversion price of ~$183/share, which equates to an additional ~23.7 million shares if fully converted. For the guided 2026 CapEx increase of an ADDITIONAL $5B, account for the existing 25M share ATM program. At a share price over $200, this would raise ~$5B+. Total estimated fully diluted shares outstanding then rises to approximately ~302.6 million. $96B market cap divided by ~302.6M shares yields ~$317 per share. My BASE CASE 12-month Nebius PRICE TARGET is now ~$317 per share. (Note that if macro conditions turn more favorable, my base case my need to be adjusted significantly HIGHER) NFA. Always do your own research!

$NBIS Sundays are calm so I took the time to read CEO Arkady Q1 letter to shareholders. Needless to say that accomplishments of Tavily, Eigen AI & Clarifai are incredible this is the best part. Our balance sheet is healthy, with more than $9 billion of cash from fundraising during the quarter and robust Q1 operating cash inflows of $2.3 billion. We plan to deploy this cash in a disciplined manner to further expand our capacity, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐞𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐜𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐝𝐞𝐞𝐩𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐲 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐜𝐤 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭 𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬. The achievements that our team delivered in the first quarter set us up for continued success. Our capacity footprint is expanding rapidly, our full-stack cloud platform is world-class from the infrastructure layer all the way up to our inference and agentic capabilities. We will continue to execute, while maintaining a relentless focus on serving our customers around the world. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐛𝐫𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐰𝐞 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐚 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐱𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐣𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐞𝐲 𝐚𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐝 On a personal note I feel extremely fortunate to have this kind of leadership which is attracting talent. There is something very unique about Nebius & its the culture! It reminds me of the Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Apple early days where everyone that was talented wanted to work for them & employees stock options made real fortunes. This is what happens when you have true leadership & a vision to become the top destination for talent in the AI industry. Expect more acquisitions. The best is yet to come... CARPE DIEM.

@QC_Capitals $NBIS and Chill.

You got $300,000 to invest right now Which stock makes you a millionaire by 2030? 1. $AMD 2. $NBIS 3. $SOFI 4. $META 5. $NOW

@EndicottInvests Been buying and holding from 2025. Now have a lot more at higher average price. Holding for a lot longer. May trim a bit at $400. Adding in my Roth 401K too.

Okay it is getting pretty laughable at this point I have seen so many accounts talk about $NBIS that I didn’t see once before. Pretty hilarious how all of the sudden every account has owned it since January

@ftr_investors Just going to $NBIS and Chill.

You have $100,000 to invest 💰 Two AI infrastructure players are on the table — but you can only choose one for the next 5 years: $NBIS or $IREN Which do you pick, and why? 🤔👇

@RKLBMan @bovtokno I am thinking next level is for $ASTS $RKLB and $NBIS to get to 100 Billion market cap by sometime late 2027 or early 28.

@bovtokno I don't see a 10X for any of these at current levels in 2-3 years.

Here is an investment that will very likely 10x in 2–3 years $ASTS $83 -> $830 $RKLB $124 -> $1240 $PL $41 -> $410 $STM $61 -> $610 $NBIS $219 -> $2190 Save it for 2029!

@HeeraniPK My 3 big positions are $NBIS $RKLB and $ASTS (think you are similar). Two are at ATH. I too believe $ASTS will get to ATH soon. Just a bit nervous about the next launch with 3 sats on it. Looking forward to when all 3 hit $100B MC.

I think I was able to buy $ASTS at the bottom this time.

@Sandeman52 I had some anxiety when $NBIS was at $100 and dropped to $70s but I held having some conviction in the long term outlook. After this week, I have clarity and peace. I have about 10% of what you have and if this hits $300+, I can stop working (with $RKLB also doing well) next year

Today I saw $NBIS bulls post about selling because they needed to “protect” their gains. I respect that. But this is also the mindset that stops people from being ultra wealthy. They don’t think they can get there. “Lock in gains” People thought I was crazy for not locking in gains at $100 with 65,000 shares. It literally never crossed my mind. It doesn’t cross my mind now.

@MktMavPro $NBIS and Chill.

RIP to those that trimmed… $NBIS

@SteveUrkelDude I’ve been about 6K of these and these were my original purchases that I have held onto and still holding. The screenshots are not buys but current status. My overall average is much higher now.

All these guys out here claiming $NBIS is a "8 bagger / 10 bagger for me" today.. Show your screen shots.. let's see. And I'm not talking about your buy orders from last year. Let's see if you actually held, or if you're full of it 🧐

@bovtokno My two biggest holdings. Been quite a few days. If your EOY targets hold, I will retire next summer.

$RKLB $NBIS WILL BE THE NEXT $SNDK RUNNER 🤫

@cantonmeow Been buying each week for several months. Fingers crossed.

Whatttttt $JASMY

Insane day. Was 80% $RKLB and 20% in $RKLX.

@adrivalue Let’s give Sabre credit here. $CSU.TO came at the end of Q1. If you know anything about how Sabre works, the BoD nominee would have had little to no impact on Q1 performance. Going forward, let’s see what they do. Good quarter after a long time.

$SABR in less than 1Q since CSU engaged with their BoD operating margin soared by +220 bps Hats off $CSU.TO ! (They might have gotten lucky with the timing, but a beaten man has the right to celebrate a small victory lap 😂)

@hero688 @Gubloinvestor Don’t know about 10x but they have upside. Just announced this AI launch today. Canada’s $CSU.TO took big stake and Board position in March. Results tomorrow morning. skift.com/2026/05/06/sab…

@Gubloinvestor $SABR, enterprise value is 5 Billion, recovering from COVID, Ai shift with google

Drop potentially 10X stock here, If it gets selected, i will pay $100.

$SABR Mindtrip Launches Sabre’s Agentic Flight Booking With In-Chat Checkout skift.com/2026/05/06/sab… Positive #TravelAI news right ahead of earnings tomorrow. GLTA

$SABR has a stake.

$SABR - wsj.com/business/deals…

@Superioresearch Been adding each day. Almost at 10k shares.

For anyone that’s curious about how I feel on $SHMD given the recent price action. This is a LOONG TERM HOLD. Who is talking about glass substrates right now? Dang near no one. Anyone on the street? No. This is a technology we are massively frontrunning through proxy of Schmid. And the 2 orders in March should be plenty of signal for everyone and also given the potential customers from it. We will be fine. Be patient and add strategically. Trading at sub 2x Forward Sales by the way They will have all their financials in place here in the next 6 months and the tailwinds will slowly come together and people will connect the dots. Our time is coming

@pennycheck Daily, Weekly, Monthly chart showing uptrend in momentum, whale accumulation, volume etc. One of my few stocks that held through the drop last week. Adding more next week. $SHMD. Need those financials out soon.

$SHMD + $LASR at ATHs in a week that saw a historic draw down in 'momentum' stocks despite $SHMD yet to give fins and $LASR doing a offering The lesson is clear in my mind Theres a difference between 'momentum' stocks and companies that are pure one of one in US equity mkt starting to inflect....