
Nick
538 posts

Nick retweetledi

A fact I feel like almost nobody knows: Ethereum's gas limit will be increased to ~200M after Glamsterdam, a huge increase from the 60M we have today.
That’s a 3x+ of L1 execution capacity, with expectation of further doubling soons after that. Assuming no similar increase in demand, fees could stay near zero for years.
This is the result of several innovations coming together at the right time: ePBS gives payloads more time, BALs let clients prefetch/parallelize execution work, and gas repricings make higher limits safe.
English

@jaibhavnani What’s unclear to me is if wstETH depositors are also at risk or if this is limited to ETH depositors.
English

Aave's Umbrella for ETH is likely slashed to 0. ETH lenders are likely cooked (at least partially).
Most protocols with a junior tranche (like Aave's Umbrella) allow it to float in size relative to the senior. So in many cases, the junior is tiny compared to the senior, sometimes by many orders of magnitude. But that doesn't reflect the risks, leaving the senior functionally unprotected.
This is why there are minimum coverage requirements in Royco. In Royco, there is a certain amount of junior capital that must be there for every senior. This ensures that the senior's risk profile is actually transformed rather than showing some hand-wavy protection.
Users are increasingly demanding such junior tranches. If you are considering how to offer one and restore some user confidence, don't hesitate to reach out!
English

Today's @KelpDAO exploiter deposited the stolen $rsETH into various lending protocols (AaveV3, CompoundV3, Euler) and and borrowed massive $WETHs w/ >$236m debt.



PeckShield Inc.@peckshield
Hi @KelpDAO , you may want to take a look at: etherscan.io/tx/0x1ae232da2…
English

@NickFulton86 yes, rest is fine, if you have rsETH rekt too.
If you have wETH in umbrella, you're likely rekt but that was part of the game by being junior tranche
English
Nick retweetledi

California is trying to pass a bill that would criminalize investigative journalism with misdemeanors, $10,000 fines, imprisonment, and content takedown.
The proposed bill is titled AB 2624 and was made after I exposed mass fraud by immigrant groups in America.
Under AB 2624, government-funded entities like the Somali “Learing” Daycare centers would be protected from being exposed if they operated inside California.
The enemy truly is within. When our politicians would rather protect fraudsters and illegal migrants, it’s time for us to stand up or face mass oppression from the traitors who “rule” over us.

English

@bryan_johnson Bryan, while I am not a sophisticated biohacker like yourself, I can still confirm I sleep well after clapping mad cheeks, cheers dawg
English
Nick retweetledi

AI agents can now open business bank accounts.
@Meow lets your AI agent open bank accounts, issue cards, check balances, send money, and audit spend.
Works with Claude, Cursor, ChatGPT, Gemini, and more.
The first financial infrastructure built for agents.
English
Nick retweetledi

@andyyy Good news: @OpenCover just launched Covered Vaults, the first primitive to deliver vault-native risk transfer at scale, starting with up to $50M in cover capacity per vault. Get the alpha 👇
x.com/OpenCover/stat…
OpenCover@OpenCover
English
Nick retweetledi
Nick retweetledi

Many are wondering "what Google saw" that caused them to revise their post-quantum cryptography transition deadline to 2029 last week. It was this:
research.google/blog/safeguard…
English
Nick retweetledi

It's 2am in Tokyo. A father of two can't sleep. He's three months into a career change that isn't working, and he hasn't told his wife how scared he is. He picks up his phone and starts talking to Tony Robbins' AI Twin.
A genuine conversation. He tells Tony everything. Tony holds him accountable the way only Tony can. He helps him find what he already knows. The man commits.
The next day, he opens the app. Tony remembers. Tony asks how the run went.
This is happening thousands of times a day. Across 23 languages. With some of the most influential people on the planet.
This is Steno.
We build hyper-realistic AI Twins for leaders and brands. Your Twin thinks like you. Speaks like you. Sounds like you. Remembers every conversation and deepens its relationship with every user over time.
Tony Robbins. Peter Diamandis. Margarita Pasos. Brian Tracy. Dan Lok. Gerard Adams. Oso Trava. Justin Donald. Brands like Sleep Science Academy and Ask Slim. And a growing roster of experts from around the world.
The Tony Robbins app alone: 4.8 stars, 2,000+ reviews, peaked at #29 in the Apple App Store. Tens of thousands of daily active users connecting with these Twins every day.
Your Twin connects to your entire ecosystem: your CRM, your products, your customer data. It knows what each person has purchased, what they care about, what they haven't explored yet. It guides them through your world with full context.
The traditional funnel is dead. This is what replaces it.
At the center is Maya, our intelligent Twin-building AI. Maya does the heavy lifting: learning how you think and speak, capturing who you really are. Our team works alongside Maya to make sure every Twin meets the standard a name like yours demands.
We've been heads-down for two years. No marketing. No hype. New platform. New brand. New everything. Today we're reintroducing Steno to the world.
The internet solved distribution. Social media solved reach. Neither one solved trust.
We're building the trust layer.
If your knowledge, voice, or brand is too valuable to stay one-way, this is what we built for you.
The future is personal. We're just getting started.
English
Nick retweetledi
Nick retweetledi

@Bfaviero what format / brand? not ready to choke down 5 scoops of unflavored GNC powder
English

Slept 5 hours a night this week. Took 20g of creatine and felt incredible every day.
FoundMyFitness Clips@fmfclips
Taking a single high dose (25–30g) of creatine not only reverses the cognitive impairment caused by 21 hours of sleep deprivation, it can boost brain function beyond fully rested levels Neuroimaging reveals the mechanism: ->High doses of creatine quickly replenish brain energy stores, enhancing neuronal function and metabolic efficiency under extreme stress This makes high-dose creatine a powerful tool for situations like jet lag, red-eye flights, and unavoidable sleep loss
English
Nick retweetledi

Private credit is in a strange place today.
The economy is tied to the cost of money. Low interest rates mean cheap borrowing, which in theory should lead to higher utilization of credit facilities. Conversely, high interest rates mean less affordable borrowing and, in theory, reduced demand for credit.
We've been living through a high-interest-rate environment since the Federal Reserve began its aggressive tightening cycle in March 2022, raising rates from near zero to over 5% by mid-2023, the fastest hiking cycle in four decades. Rates have remained elevated through early 2026, with only modest cuts. For many consumers and businesses that initiated borrowing during the low- or mid-rate era, and whose obligations remain outstanding, this translates into a significantly higher cost of capital, a burden that compounds over time.
This all sounds normal. Finance is part of almost every phase of a company's lifecycle, from growth to maturity. The problem arises when the cost of capital stays elevated for too long, creating unmanageable expenses for borrowers.
Businesses typically borrow from financial institutions like banks, or from asset managers in the form of private credit.
How do private credit funds work?
Private credit funds are typically either closed-end or semi-liquid vehicles managed by asset managers. This structure makes sense: the funds need to deploy capital into lending opportunities to generate returns. Investors in private credit range from pension funds, insurance companies, and family offices to, increasingly, retail investors.
Closed-end funds don't allow redemptions until maturity, usually 7 to 10 years. Semi-liquid funds offer quarterly redemption windows with limits. BDCs (Business Development Companies), which are publicly traded, provide liquidity via daily trading on exchanges.
In essence, private credit funds function as private banks: they lend capital to businesses and collect interest.
What does private credit fund?
Typically, private credit finances leveraged buyouts for private equity, middle-market corporate loans for companies that lack access to public bond markets, certain asset-backed lending (such as aircraft, shipping, and consumer loans), and real estate credit.
Private credit funds generally fill the funding gap that banks have vacated. This shift has been driven primarily by post-2008 regulation, particularly Basel III, which pushed banks out of riskier corporate lending. Today, private credit finances an estimated 80 to 90% of leveraged buyouts in the U.S. middle market.
Who are the players?
Apollo ~$460B AUM
Blackstone ~$330B AUM
Ares ~$280B AUM
KKR ~$220B AUM
Carlyle ~$190B AUM
Blue Owl ~$170B AUM
What's going on?
Recently, distress has emerged across private credit. The persistent cost of capital driven by high interest rates remains a reality, and AI is reshaping perceptions of many software companies that private credit has funded, creating uncertainty about these borrowers' futures.
The market has already begun repricing private credit:
VanEck BDC Income ETF: ~15% decline over the past year
Blue Owl Capital: ~50% decline over the past year, with ~30% of that during 2026
Apollo, Blackstone, Ares, KKR: shares down ~20% on private credit concerns
The average BDC now trades at roughly a 20% discount to NAV while offering 10 to 11% yields, signaling that loan portfolios may be overvalued, defaults could rise, or liquidity risk is building. What makes this even more concerning is that historically, these funds traded at a premium.
Some funds' monitored loan default metrics have risen to as high as 9%. Blackstone's flagship private credit fund, BCRED, is a notable example.
BCRED recently limited its redemptions. The fund manages roughly $82B, and during Q1 2026, redemption requests reached $3.7B, approximately 8% of NAV. Blackstone injected $400M of its own capital to support liquidity. Technically, the fund was not gated, but it came very close.
Meanwhile, BlackRock's HPS Corporate Lending Fund (HLEND), a $26B fund, received $1.2B in redemption requests, reaching the point where gating was necessary. Roughly $580M in requests could not be honored.
Blue Owl's retail private credit vehicle experienced $2.9B in redemptions during Q4 2025, with redemption requests reaching 15% of NAV, largely driven by exposure to software lending.
Can the market handle a private credit fund default?
While total redemptions have been around $7B+ (5 to 10% of NAV) and public alternative managers are down 20 to 30%, the overall private credit market is still $1.8 to 2T in size. Even the largest funds top out at $20 to 80B, compared to the global bond market at $130T or banking assets at $180T. A single fund default would most likely not collapse the broader market or trigger the kind of contagion that amplifies crises. Large funds also hold diversified portfolios of hundreds of loans, and the semi-liquid or closed-end structure naturally forces investor lock-up, acting as a buffer against bank-run dynamics.
I've mapped out three scenarios of increasing severity:
Scenario A: One large fund defaults (~$50B)Investors lose capital, some companies lose financing, and credit spreads widen. The system likely absorbs the shock.
Scenario B: Several funds fail simultaneouslyCredit markets freeze, leveraged companies cannot refinance, and defaults cascade. This could trigger a credit-cycle downturn.
Scenario C: Private credit + leveraged loans collapseA broader corporate credit crisis unfolds: private equity deals fail and banks become exposed. This would be genuinely systemic.
Fortunately, private credit funds remain relatively small in the broader picture and are unlikely on their own to pose systemic risk. However, the most worrisome scenario is one where loss of confidence begins in private credit markets, particularly around lending to businesses vulnerable to AI disruption, and then bleeds into public bond markets. This contagion path is plausible because the larger corporates in bond markets are arguably more exposed to automation and AI disruption than the leaner, high-growth businesses that private credit typically funds.
How does this affect RWAs and DeFi?
The most immediate impact of private credit distress falls on capital allocators. Many private credit funds have been distributed to retail investors via publicly traded BDCs, private credit ETFs, or semi-liquid funds like Blackstone's BCRED, Apollo's Debt Solutions BDC, and BlackRock's HPS Corporate Lending Fund.
These funds share common characteristics: quarterly (or monthly) redemption windows, redemption limits typically capped at 5% of NAV per quarter, and target returns of 8 to 11%. Recently, some funds have also begun gating redemptions.
From a DeFi capital allocator's perspective, the biggest risk I see is structural: private credit is packaged in DeFi in ways that many retail-oriented users don't fully understand before committing capital. We've seen countless examples of DeFi users eagerly supplying funds into high-yielding RWA strategies, only to discover later that the underlying exposure carries significant duration risk.
I believe RWAs represent the biggest opportunity for DeFi in the near term. However, my greatest fear is that institutional opportunists could view DeFi as a channel to offload illiquid and distressed products that Wall Street has already soured on, effectively using DeFi participants as exit liquidity. This risk is amplified by the fact that assessing RWA allocation opportunities is inherently harder: they don't carry the same transparency or onchain verifiability that native DeFi opportunities provide.
That said, private credit done well onchain offers something traditional finance fundamentally cannot: smart contract-enforced guarantees. Redemption windows, withdrawal limits, collateral ratios, and distribution rules can be encoded immutably, meaning fund managers cannot arbitrarily change the terms after capital has been committed. In traditional private credit, investors discovered the hard way with BCRED and HLEND that redemption policies can be tightened or gated at the discretion of the manager when conditions deteriorate. Onchain, those rules are transparent from day one and enforced by code, not by a fund administrator under pressure. This is precisely where RWAs and DeFi can outperform the traditional model for this asset category.
For RWAs to succeed in DeFi, and for DeFi to scale meaningfully through real-world assets, the industry needs deliberate and careful structuring of opportunities that bridge TradFi and onchain markets. That means robust transparency standards, proper risk disclosure, independent verification of underlying collateral, and governance frameworks that protect onchain participants from asymmetric information disadvantages. Without these safeguards, the convergence of TradFi and DeFi risks becoming extractive rather than additive.
DeFi should not become Wall Street's exit liquidity.
English
Nick retweetledi

Let me make this very clear: Big Banks (think JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, etc.) are lobbying overtime to block Americans from getting higher yields on their savings—while trying to block any rewards or perks from being given to customers.
These banks, and others, pay rock-bottom rates on standard savings (often 0.01%–0.05% APY), even as the Fed pays them 4% or more. This massive spread fuels record profits, with almost none passed back to their customers / everyday depositors.
Today, the banks are desperately targeting crypto/stablecoins, where platforms plan to offer 4–5%+ yields or rewards. The ABA and other lobbyists are spending millions trying to ban or restrict those yields via bills like the Clarity Act, crying “fairness” and using words like "stability"—when it's really about protecting their low-rate monopoly and preventing deposit flight. This is anti-retail, anti-consumer, and straight-up anti-American.
Next time you see a big bank dropping billions on a shiny new Midtown Manhattan HQ, you know exactly where that money comes from: the non-existent interest rate they “pay” you!
Fortunately, the big banks are losing this fight as customers wake up to the games…
@worldlibertyfi
English
Nick retweetledi







