
Nickiiii
7K posts





Just amazing what is happening with the Swedish company Sivers Semiconductor. $SIVE The company is a small cap and makes electronic components. American stock traders have discovered the company and bought its stocks with the premise that its products play a key role in the supply chain for the build out of the next generation of computing hardware for AI. Because of this the stock has risen by 800% and become one of the hottest. But instead of greeting this success with celebration the Swedish media has started attacking its own company and trying to crash its stock because Sweden is a socialist country and there success is frowned upon. They are writing hit pieces saying how the gains in stock prices are fueled by speculation and how everyone will lose money and it's actually a bad company so don't buy it. This has created a dynamic in the last few days where Swedes dump their stocks in European hours then Americans wake up and buy the dip. Logically this way the ownership of the company has shifted from Swedish to American so Swedes have relinquished their winning company and any future gains will go to Americans.


@aleabitoreddit Another institutional buyer joined the IQE party! @aleabitoreddit


Citron Short $AAOI- The anti-$LITE Two weeks ago $AAOI was $85. Today it's $140. $3.5B in market cap added on a random press release. This stock should trade back to $85 once the roulette wheel stops spinning (which would still put it above consensus) Let's be clear about something. Citron is not an AI bear. Long $GLW, the fiber backbone every hyperscaler buys more of regardless of which architecture wins. Respect $LITE, Nvidia's chosen partner with real profits and real backlog. GLW is reasonable. LITE is expensive. AAOI is delusional. And the customer tells you everything. LITE's anchor is Nvidia , $2 billion invested directly into their supplier, booked solid through 2028, balance sheet that could fund a small country. AAOI's anchor is Oracle , 30,000 layoffs, $100 billion in debt, negative free cash flow, and a flagship data center expansion that just fell apart over financing. One company picks winners. The other is desperately trying not to be a loser. ONE NUMBER ENDS DEBATE!! Nvidia at its peak as THE monopoly in AI chips with $200 billion in annual profits peaked at 40x forward earnings at the height of AI bubble euphoria. And Nvidia earned that multiple with 75% gross margins, monopoly pricing, and no real competition. AAOI trades at 112x forward earnings, nearly three times peak bubble Nvidia, with 31% gross margins, heavy capex, one customer, and zero pricing power. To justify 112x you need Nvidia-like margins. AAOI has commodity hardware margins that are one Innolight price cut away from making their already imaginary path to profitability a permanent moving target. You are paying beyond monopoly multiples for commodity economics , backed by the most leveraged, most financially stressed customer in the hyperscaler food chain. Could write pages about the Amazon warrants and the execution risks and accounting but why confuse an obvious story. Expensive has a defense. Delusional does not.




















