Antonio Hernández Ayuso
1.4K posts

Antonio Hernández Ayuso
@Niclosantonio
Investor, free thinker, constant learner. The is no other way to achieve success than helping others.






$CSU.TO results look solid on first look! Will deep dive on it later! Disc: Literally bought more shares this morning! Link: csisoftware.com/constellation-… (took a while to find this!) $CSU.TO $TOI.V $LMN.V




















Been away for a while. 6 days only, not much. My cat turned out to very likely have asthma, so that sucks and been taking care of her and doing some changes in the house. Stuff like this helps put things into perspective, and realizing how meaningless and stupid crypto is. I'm still doing soul searching. Anyway, last tweet I wrote was one of my best tweets and I've been building a little bit on it. I've been discovering the markets on my own since late 2020, and at every step of the way I got surprised by how much every dinamic in trading and in the markets was extremely similar to poker. Several breakthroughs throughout the years, and this one framing yield farming in EV terms, same as we framed every action at the poker table in such terms, was quite impactful. I learned to think in EV terms also in my farms. This is even more important now that all EV's are giga compressed vs 2024-2025. Let's do a small recap on current state of portfolio: My farming portfolio is averaging 21-22% APR, and a weighted-EV of 2.69. This number means for every 1$ at risk for the whole year, I'd expect to make 1.69$ in profit. That sounds great at first, but it really means I'm gonna make on average only net 62% (1.69/2.69) out of 22% apr, so after accounting for risk, that's a net of 13.2% of my farming portfolio. Which is still a good number in dollar terms, but let's be honest, That's shit. 13.2% net. And that's before accounting for the extreme volatility of a "long term" realized EV that might be achieved in perhaps 20-30 years. It means nothing bad could happen in this 2026 sample, no exploit or black swan, and i would make 22% on portfolio; but could also mean a 10% is wiped out if a farm with that exposure gets turkey'd (yield farming is the life of a turkey) and i make 12%, or 30% is wiped out if a big position allegedly very low risk (think aave or very very low risk stuff) and i make -8% on the year. That's really not great. It's still profitable if you know what you're doing, but it's far from great. Just to put it into context, here are some farms from the 2024-2025 era in terms of EV: -Aave weeth/weeth loops in etherfi season 2. risk: aave 2% lets say, ethfi 2% let's say at the time (im being generous on both). Total risk: 4% Reward apr: 250% EV: 62.5 (LOL) So we're talking 25x more profitable than my current farms. There have been a lot of similar farms (a handful as great or even better, the majority of those in early 2024), and a lot more of perhaps not that great but let's say half as good. Even those half as good farms easily offered 5-6x the risk/reward of our current environment. 2024-2025 had a few absurd risk/reward farms, which were mostly taken by peak performers, and a lot more still pretty good stuff, that the kinda smart motivated farmer could still easily take advantage of (and again, offered him 5-6x higher evs than current farms). And let's say slightly winnning or break even for the mediocre farmer (or the better known as "retard"). 2026 has mediocre (still positive) EV for the peak performer, probably slightly losing for the mid farmer (not to mention the extreme volatility), and clearly very negative EV (we're seeing so many exploits also lol) for the casual yield farmer (again, the retard). Where am I going with all this doomer shit? I think my EV estimates are pretty accurate. This means yield farming in the current state of affairs is kinda dead (things could still get worse btw and EVs of the best farms even more compressed towards 1), and for me it means a lot of peace of mind in understanding and putting into numbers that if I don't peak perform in these times and don't APR max, its totally fine. My focus now is on farms that can last for a while, low risk overall, highest possible EV (which as mentioned are super low compared to 2024-2025), and try to dedicate as least time as possible in defi. In poker, hourly rate is very important, and it's undeniable my hourly rate in yield farming is not that great in 2026 even though my portfolio has grown. Which is a reason to keep grinding tbh, since your portfolio growing means even if EVs are compressed u can still kinda compensate that fact by the sheer size of your portfolio. And finally, and more importantly, it also means it's time to look for a different game. It was yield farming of NFTs, ETF and BTC season, memecoins, retarded weeth/weeth loops for 250% APR, pendle PT loops when no one was looking, predeposits season, presales season (lol), Ethena season, then perp season (this farmer told u to fade that shit after lighter dropped), and now the hot potato seems to be Polymarket. I expect Polymarket to be very decent at least until more smart farmers get there and figure out that game as well. In the meantime, it's time to move on from larping as a yield farmer quant, to larping as a geopolitical macro quant. 🫡 TLDR: evs low, yield farming kinda dead, if ur reading this u should prob stop lending me money, polymarket good, braindead people betting on geopolitics are the new yield polymarket.com/?r=RAMIPOKER











I'll comfortably keep my $LIT staked




One of the latest things that Arthur Hayes tweeted was $RIVER I know that some of you don't have the fondest opinion of the guy, but he does get some serious hit every once in a while That's why I make sure to at least DYOR that stuff he follows So, @RiverdotInc 🔍 They're building a chai-abstraction stablecoin system, connecting assets, liquidity and yield across multiple chains They've got all the marks of a big project and you can DYOR tokenomics and how to turn River points into RIVER tokens with the details of the Alea research → alearesearch.io/perspectives/r… What makes River strong? - Raised funds from Justin Sun and @MaelstromFund - Made a partnership with @SuiNetwork - Did a 40x since launch in October 2025 (Coingecko) - #1 gainer on Binance with more than $6B in 24h trading volume (Coinglass) - More than $314M in TVL across a multitude of chains They are doing well, that's for sure Their main product is satUSD and the smart vaults with ~40% estimated APR on USDT deposits Their BTC derivative game is also pretty strong with 4 different derivatives vaults on BOB, Base, and BSC The 2 most interesting features for DeFi users and farmers are 🔸 satUSD earn options (especially the LPs with stables and satUSD+) 🔸 Season 4 of the airdrop By building an Omni-CDP, they made it possible to get yield from different collaterals without having to change what chain you work on to get higher yields → you can use their stable on Pendle, for example It's really easy yield + the airdrop for $RIVER, which is looking pretty well valued right now I'll have to dive deeper into the partnerships and defi opportunities, especially the one on PCS, but it seems solid for now If anything, the investments seem to be justified and doing well for now Even in bear markets, you can always make money if you're patient and know where to look


Alpha for you: A lot of altcoins are fantastic shorts and will go down only forever, because foundations will offer investors a deal where if they buy $10,000,000 on the spot market, they'll get $20,000,000 of tokens in 6 months. They do this in order to squeeze the spot market in order to squeeze TGE hedgers. Spot is typically less liquid than perps, so the net market cap increase per $ market bought has a higher multiple. These tokens eventually unlock, the savviest of firms have already hedged these TGE deals, and then the charts all the look the same. Initial squeeze due to artificial spot demand, hedging, and then relentless selling for 6-12 months after. This trade has become more public recently, and most foundations realize just how stupid this is, but the scammiest tokens still do it. Happy Friday.












