Antonio Hernández Ayuso

1.4K posts

Antonio Hernández Ayuso banner
Antonio Hernández Ayuso

Antonio Hernández Ayuso

@Niclosantonio

Investor, free thinker, constant learner. The is no other way to achieve success than helping others.

Valencia, España Katılım Ağustos 2010
400 Takip Edilen1.8K Takipçiler
Adrián, Head of the arena 
$ACP.WA published solid Q1 results: • Organic growth ~6% (CC) • New projects are contributing positively to organic growth (Public sector, finance, ERP...) • Order backlog +13% • Operating margin +330 bps YoY 🤯 • AI-driven productivity boost (tbd; not quantifiable yet) Seems that they're successfully implementing the CSU way 👀 Attaching factors contributing to the organic growth and margin expansion (via AI, I need to double check) cc $TOI.V $CSU.TO
Adrián, Head of the arena  tweet mediaAdrián, Head of the arena  tweet mediaAdrián, Head of the arena  tweet media
English
3
6
67
8.1K
Antonio Hernández Ayuso
Antonio Hernández Ayuso@Niclosantonio·
@rja907 It is basically due to working capital changes. If you detract the working capital variations, which are neutral in the long term, yo get to the real FCF. That's the one will give you a healthy hint of the biz evolution
English
0
0
2
219
Raj.brk
Raj.brk@rja907·
$CSU.TO The 44% jump in FCFA2S when the CFO increased by only 9% didn't make sense to me. Looks like it is because of IRGA revaluation charge (which I usually strip out for my own calculations)? When I do that for this quarter's numbers, I get this: CSU Q1 FCFA2S — reported vs adjusted: Reported FCFA2S: $733M vs $510M (+44%) Less: IRGA/TSS revaluation: -$76M vs +$94M FCFA2S ex-IRGA: $657M vs $604M (+9%) Let me know anyone has thoughts on this!
Raj.brk@rja907

$CSU.TO results look solid on first look! Will deep dive on it later! Disc: Literally bought more shares this morning! Link: csisoftware.com/constellation-… (took a while to find this!) $CSU.TO $TOI.V $LMN.V

English
7
2
46
14.2K
Antonio Hernández Ayuso
Antonio Hernández Ayuso@Niclosantonio·
@adrivalue +22% revenue... the best long term proxy to authentic FCF is revenue, but you my beloved Adri already knew that ☺️
English
1
0
1
293
Adrián, Head of the arena 
$TOI.V results are out cc $CSU.TO: - +7% recurring organic growth ✅ - FCFA2S +2% YoY 🫤, due to lower changes in WC (noise), higher taxes and higher NCIs ⚠️ - Weak Q for acquisitions, with just €22.5MM (15 deployed + 7.5 deferred) ⚠️ - €38MM deployed in acquisitions since the end of the Q1. Better than Q1 but not great⚠️
Adrián, Head of the arena  tweet mediaAdrián, Head of the arena  tweet mediaAdrián, Head of the arena  tweet media
English
2
7
71
11.4K
Antonio Hernández Ayuso
Antonio Hernández Ayuso@Niclosantonio·
@KillaXBT @payne3456 Great approach, instead of buying and selling, and then rebuying at a cheaper price, thinking in terms of BTC units, hedging after bullish trend, collects some USDT with the fut short (or options) and accumulate more units of BTC.
English
5
0
1
60
Killa
Killa@KillaXBT·
Yes, I hold Bitcoin spot long term. Its average annual returns far exceed those of tradFi markets. At the same time, most of my swing shorts are slightly larger than my actual spot holdings. That way, if the trend does turn bearish, the shorts effectively hedge my spot, allowing me to accumulate more BTC without taking a hit to overall port. That’s essentially the approach I used throughout this entire drop from 120K. Close to delta neutral but slightly bigger, then re-invest the additional USDT.
English
3
2
64
7.2K
Killa
Killa@KillaXBT·
$BTC GM, looks like they might be going with a more aggressive scenario, sweeping the previous monthly high at the start of May (taking out short stops) before moving back into range and setting a range high. I’d be very careful longing into the sweep. I’ve got a feeling it retraces fairly quickly on the HTF through the rest of May. This kind of move typically shows up at the start of a new month, it’s pretty textbook, hence why I derisked my the add on my short at BE. I’ve also placed another small short add at 79.5K in case we sweep the previous monthly high (which is likely now), which should further improve my average from 76K, similar to the last add. SSL remains the same. 1W closure above 83K. No HSL.
Killa tweet media
English
88
39
959
86.2K
Antonio Hernández Ayuso
Antonio Hernández Ayuso@Niclosantonio·
Como cuando la IA va a destrozar todo el sector del software porque todos los clientes se van a hacer sus propios programas y eliminar a sus proveedores... oh, wait! Demanda laboral software @AccionEAFI
Antonio Hernández Ayuso tweet media
Español
0
0
0
168
Rami
Rami@rami_poker·
this reminds me so much of 2013-2015 era, when poker in .com sites was at its lowes (so far), and players would talk all the time of how easy we got it in the early 2000s lol always the same story: -new game, everybody is retarded for years so if you're just above average you can make a huge amount of money -at some point people start to get better, bad players go broke and not replaced by new players at the same pace, and/or for whatever reasons liquidity dries (black friday for poker in 2011 excluding americans, Fed helicopter money gone in nov 2021), and then the game isn't that easy anymore and people talk about the good old times and how good we had it. tldr: somebody find me the new hot thing for the next 10 years pls
English
4
1
28
2.4K
gainzy
gainzy@gainzy222·
Forever grateful for crypto man. Without satoshi I’d be a permanent wagie. Even I take a moment now and then and acknowledge how ridiculously lucky I was. Everyone saying class of 2017 and before had it stupid easy is correct. Born at exactly the right time I can’t even lie.
English
138
50
1.5K
84.4K
Antonio Hernández Ayuso
Antonio Hernández Ayuso@Niclosantonio·
@foroelectricos soy un encantado propietario de un model3, pero decir que tiene 534km de autonomía es básicamente mentir. en ciudad entre 400 y 425, en carretera suerte si pasas de 350, y eso es pasando de 100% a 0% de batería, algo poco recomendable. no volveré a tener otro coche de gasolina
Español
1
0
10
1.9K
ForoCochesEléctricos
ForoCochesEléctricos@foroelectricos·
¡Bombazo de Tesla en España! 🚗💨 El Tesla Model 3 Standard baja su precio y ya se puede conseguir desde 29.990 € (con ayudas del Plan Auto+). 📉 Spain 🇪🇸 ✅ 534 km de autonomía ✅ 0-100 km/h en 6.2s ✅ Carga 270 km en 15 min ¿El fin de los coches de gasolina? 🤔👇 #Tesla
ForoCochesEléctricos tweet mediaForoCochesEléctricos tweet mediaForoCochesEléctricos tweet media
Español
52
54
461
119.9K
Antonio Hernández Ayuso
Antonio Hernández Ayuso@Niclosantonio·
@rami_poker and what about keeping you up to date so you'll be fully prepared for when to good times come back? anyway, get enough rest, there will be great times ahead again
English
2
0
1
155
Rami
Rami@rami_poker·
Been doing some math on hourly/rate for my current portfolio under current conditions (assuming 6h a day) and the rate is way less than what I made playing poker in 2020 lmaooo I don’t quit poker to compound my portfolio and 5 years later after being successful at that making less than what I made playing poker which btw was far more creative and competitive and enjoyable than fucking yield farming 6 hours a day is a lot, and is probably what I dedicated in 2024-2025. We gotta account for all the time in discord, twitter, research, wallet stalking, chart watching, etc. I don’t think in 2026 I’ve dedicated 6 hours on average, probably half that, but even then, the difference in hourly rate vs 2025 is abysmal. In 2024 I 3xed portfolio iirc but my portfolio starting point was small compared to 2025 and 2026. But even then, the hourly was far bigger than now (after accounting for risk which erodes a part of your Apr). In 2025 I only 1.25xed portfolio but my starting point in sheer size was bigger therefore reached the sweet spot (it was by far my greatest year in $ terms). In 2026 portfolio starting point is highest ever of course, but yields are so terrible that hourly is 5-10x lower than previous years (assuming 6h/day). The only possible answer is set: -long term farms that won’t need to touch in weeks/months (think about how likely it is someone will fuck your farm or the farm conditions will change) -good EV (this is basic otherwise wtf are you even doing) -diversified enough (won’t enter in this topic today but I feel it’s even more important to diversify and reduce volatility of a portfolio in shit times than in good times) -and be happy with mediocre yield and stop hustling for literal crumbs. In other words, the only possible answer, as a yield farmer in 2026, is Pareto maxxing. Just explained why, but there is more explanation in case it’s necessary: a) Either you are broke and yield farming offers you a ridiculous hourly rate therefore you should do something different in your life b) or you have enough portfolio to keep yield farming. But in that case, are you really in a position financially or in your life overall in which it makes sense to peak perform for such shit hourly rate while you’re looking at a 7+ figure portfolio? The answer is Pareto again. Reduce your peak performing, stick to long term stuff, reduce volatility in your portfolio as much as possible by diversifying risks, reduce your hours spent in crypto, and then be happy with 50-70% of what you would have made had you peak performed, but having cut your hours by let’s say 70-80%, your hourly (at least until conditions change) will still be something that won’t make your 5 year younger self embarrassed. As always, this is a message to my subconscious. Seeing my projected hourly rate for 2026 really was a breakthrough and made me feel retarded for having spent so much time in crypto in these last 3.5 months of 2026 (even though it was half or less than previous couple years) I’ve also given some thought to doing something different than yield farming. I was trading relatively successfully in 2021-2023 and it was more interesting than yield farming. Yield farming has the attractiveness of “passive income”, but what the hell is ‘passive’ in 6 hours a day lmao TLDR: hourly in 2026 is shot. Either you’re poor and yield farming doesn’t make sense economically, or you’re rich and yield farming (peak performing) doesn’t make sense from a life enjoying perspective. In that case, look for long term stuff, don’t worry about getting the extra % yield, and enjoy life or pursue other interests or money-making venues! I’ve personally finally decided to start rehabilitating as a yield farmer addict. Hope this is helpful for some of you!
Rami@rami_poker

Been away for a while. 6 days only, not much. My cat turned out to very likely have asthma, so that sucks and been taking care of her and doing some changes in the house. Stuff like this helps put things into perspective, and realizing how meaningless and stupid crypto is. I'm still doing soul searching. Anyway, last tweet I wrote was one of my best tweets and I've been building a little bit on it. I've been discovering the markets on my own since late 2020, and at every step of the way I got surprised by how much every dinamic in trading and in the markets was extremely similar to poker. Several breakthroughs throughout the years, and this one framing yield farming in EV terms, same as we framed every action at the poker table in such terms, was quite impactful. I learned to think in EV terms also in my farms. This is even more important now that all EV's are giga compressed vs 2024-2025. Let's do a small recap on current state of portfolio: My farming portfolio is averaging 21-22% APR, and a weighted-EV of 2.69. This number means for every 1$ at risk for the whole year, I'd expect to make 1.69$ in profit. That sounds great at first, but it really means I'm gonna make on average only net 62% (1.69/2.69) out of 22% apr, so after accounting for risk, that's a net of 13.2% of my farming portfolio. Which is still a good number in dollar terms, but let's be honest, That's shit. 13.2% net. And that's before accounting for the extreme volatility of a "long term" realized EV that might be achieved in perhaps 20-30 years. It means nothing bad could happen in this 2026 sample, no exploit or black swan, and i would make 22% on portfolio; but could also mean a 10% is wiped out if a farm with that exposure gets turkey'd (yield farming is the life of a turkey) and i make 12%, or 30% is wiped out if a big position allegedly very low risk (think aave or very very low risk stuff) and i make -8% on the year. That's really not great. It's still profitable if you know what you're doing, but it's far from great. Just to put it into context, here are some farms from the 2024-2025 era in terms of EV: -Aave weeth/weeth loops in etherfi season 2. risk: aave 2% lets say, ethfi 2% let's say at the time (im being generous on both). Total risk: 4% Reward apr: 250% EV: 62.5 (LOL) So we're talking 25x more profitable than my current farms. There have been a lot of similar farms (a handful as great or even better, the majority of those in early 2024), and a lot more of perhaps not that great but let's say half as good. Even those half as good farms easily offered 5-6x the risk/reward of our current environment. 2024-2025 had a few absurd risk/reward farms, which were mostly taken by peak performers, and a lot more still pretty good stuff, that the kinda smart motivated farmer could still easily take advantage of (and again, offered him 5-6x higher evs than current farms). And let's say slightly winnning or break even for the mediocre farmer (or the better known as "retard"). 2026 has mediocre (still positive) EV for the peak performer, probably slightly losing for the mid farmer (not to mention the extreme volatility), and clearly very negative EV (we're seeing so many exploits also lol) for the casual yield farmer (again, the retard). Where am I going with all this doomer shit? I think my EV estimates are pretty accurate. This means yield farming in the current state of affairs is kinda dead (things could still get worse btw and EVs of the best farms even more compressed towards 1), and for me it means a lot of peace of mind in understanding and putting into numbers that if I don't peak perform in these times and don't APR max, its totally fine. My focus now is on farms that can last for a while, low risk overall, highest possible EV (which as mentioned are super low compared to 2024-2025), and try to dedicate as least time as possible in defi. In poker, hourly rate is very important, and it's undeniable my hourly rate in yield farming is not that great in 2026 even though my portfolio has grown. Which is a reason to keep grinding tbh, since your portfolio growing means even if EVs are compressed u can still kinda compensate that fact by the sheer size of your portfolio. And finally, and more importantly, it also means it's time to look for a different game. It was yield farming of NFTs, ETF and BTC season, memecoins, retarded weeth/weeth loops for 250% APR, pendle PT loops when no one was looking, predeposits season, presales season (lol), Ethena season, then perp season (this farmer told u to fade that shit after lighter dropped), and now the hot potato seems to be Polymarket. I expect Polymarket to be very decent at least until more smart farmers get there and figure out that game as well. In the meantime, it's time to move on from larping as a yield farmer quant, to larping as a geopolitical macro quant. 🫡 TLDR: evs low, yield farming kinda dead, if ur reading this u should prob stop lending me money, polymarket good, braindead people betting on geopolitics are the new yield polymarket.com/?r=RAMIPOKER

English
7
4
60
4.7K
Nachez
Nachez@Nachez98·
🚨 OJO 🆕 LEGO sacará un nuevo Lego Technic de F1 en Julio 🟩 ¡Será el AMR26! ⚙️ Constará de 1547 piezas y tendrá un precio cercano a los 230€ 📰 Instagram: Itavix_bricks
Nachez tweet media
Español
128
92
2.3K
315.3K
Rami
Rami@rami_poker·
Gud stuff ser. Brings a few good memories. Q1 2024 was certainly the most epic and enjoyable time of this cycle. I farmed mostly TNSR and made 40k. I made another 60 sol farming tnsr; mostly pnl that came from that crazy night where prob u and me both were non stop dumping HOAs at 20 sol lol. You’re 100% right that you would have been diluted by carnivorous monsters today; but back then there was insane money to be made everywhere. I made insane plays ion JLP. I think k about it how very very value time spent in crypto today has vs time spent in early 2024. Then I get a little depressed for not having bounced from here during the last couple months lol
English
4
1
20
2.2K
Antonio Hernández Ayuso
Antonio Hernández Ayuso@Niclosantonio·
@Ferrari4u2 mostly agreed, but at the same time, one of the best venues to have one leg of profitable market neutrals. Points... we'll see if they worth something, but not my main concern right now
English
0
0
1
205
Ferrari
Ferrari@Ferrari4u2·
66% chance of having less than $500M FDV Looks like people got tired of earning 1 point for every $1M in volume on Variational
Ferrari tweet media
English
31
1
113
10.4K
Antonio Hernández Ayuso
Antonio Hernández Ayuso@Niclosantonio·
@rami_poker absolutely agreed my fellow "sufrido jugador de poker" I think this is a valid point to start selling puts 50-60k, maybe 1-2 months, maybe leaps. meanwhile, growing usdt/usdc for any safe means ty for your content, always helpful
English
0
0
1
151
Rami
Rami@rami_poker·
The ONLY exciting thing for me about crypto right now is the possibility that it crashes a bit lower. Get rid of all the 2024-2025 tourists in one final flush, make Saylor sweat again under his average price, go back or slightly below $BTC production cost, and make people truly lose hope again and thinking it will go to 0. People say that sentiment now is awful and the worst they've ever seen, but such people have very short memory. We're still FAR from where sentiment was in november 2022: @DonAlt was MOCKED for taking a long trade at 16k. 90% of the comments he got were from people laughing at him lol. Go there and check the comments. I have never seen a strongest bearish sentiment in crypto. @cobie was considering leaving crypto altogether and the @ecb cucks were GLOATING on how btc was about to go to 0. We are NOT there yet. Down to 60k or even a bit lower if lucky/with time, then eventually back above 100k would probably get us some mainstream interest again and therefore make our defi stuff might see brighter days. Would take months for this to happen though and odds we go to 60k or below are under 50% imo. More likely we end up bottoming around here. Sadly this is the only thing that gets me a little hyped about crypto for the foreseeable future and I don't see how defi yields go back to being great in the short-medium term. Current population has been too badly burned or are out of the market.
Rami tweet mediaRami tweet media
English
11
0
73
5.7K
Antonio Hernández Ayuso
Antonio Hernández Ayuso@Niclosantonio·
@SipaAirdrop I wish those figures were accurate, but the staking APR is now 13,3% and the LLP, regardless of the public 20,26% APR the website says, if you pay attention to the last 20-25 days is more like 12-14%. So all combined a still real good 13% and 13%, but not 17% and 20%.
English
0
0
0
68
Sipa
Sipa@SipaAirdrop·
Apparently, everyone who staked some tokens received $LIT in rewards > Already 58 million tokens are staked (>20% of the circulating supply) While staking APRs are very juicy: > 17.8% on your staked LIT > 20.3% on your LLP deposit I'm pretty sure that if this method actually works, real buyers and believers will show up in the coming days
Sipa tweet mediaSipa tweet media
Sipa@SipaAirdrop

I'll comfortably keep my $LIT staked

English
7
2
40
8.4K
Antonio Hernández Ayuso
Antonio Hernández Ayuso@Niclosantonio·
@DonEcija @MADRID en Valencia ocurre lo mismo para las citas de la policia nacional para registro de huellos como extranjero para solicitar el NIE. La cita la vende un colombiano en un grupo de facebook por 80€ cada cita.
Español
0
2
3
460
B.Écija
B.Écija@DonEcija·
Hola @MADRID Llevo desde noviembre que nació mi hijo, intentando pedir cita para empadronarle con nosotros Resulta que hay un bot de unos locutorios marroquíes que se cogen todas las citas para revenderlas nada más se publican… se sabe y nadie hace nada Os parece normal??
B.Écija tweet media
Español
306
2.3K
5.9K
403.1K
Tawkeer 🦊
Tawkeer 🦊@ZaaZu___·
The crime pump of $RIVER is over
Tawkeer 🦊 tweet media
English
11
0
19
1.1K
Antonio Hernández Ayuso
Antonio Hernández Ayuso@Niclosantonio·
wtf guys, it is just another Bitget + Binance scam. almost none free float, huge futures OI, squeeze the spot, stab everybody out with fundings, then dump. We've seen it so many times this year, it gets even boring to see it again.
riddler@RiddlerDeFi

One of the latest things that Arthur Hayes tweeted was $RIVER ​ I know that some of you don't have the fondest opinion of the guy, but he does get some serious hit every once in a while ​ That's why I make sure to at least DYOR that stuff he follows ​ So, @RiverdotInc 🔍 They're building a chai-abstraction stablecoin system, connecting assets, liquidity and yield across multiple chains ​ They've got all the marks of a big project and you can DYOR tokenomics and how to turn River points into RIVER tokens with the details of the Alea research → alearesearch.io/perspectives/r… ​ What makes River strong? ​ - Raised funds from Justin Sun and @MaelstromFund - Made a partnership with @SuiNetwork - Did a 40x since launch in October 2025 (Coingecko) - #1 gainer on Binance with more than $6B in 24h trading volume (Coinglass) - More than $314M in TVL across a multitude of chains ​ They are doing well, that's for sure Their main product is satUSD and the smart vaults with ~40% estimated APR on USDT deposits ​ Their BTC derivative game is also pretty strong with 4 different derivatives vaults on BOB, Base, and BSC ​ The 2 most interesting features for DeFi users and farmers are ​ 🔸 satUSD earn options (especially the LPs with stables and satUSD+) ​ 🔸 Season 4 of the airdrop ​ By building an Omni-CDP, they made it possible to get yield from different collaterals without having to change what chain you work on to get higher yields ​ → you can use their stable on Pendle, for example ​ It's really easy yield + the airdrop for $RIVER, which is looking pretty well valued right now I'll have to dive deeper into the partnerships and defi opportunities, especially the one on PCS, but it seems solid for now ​ If anything, the investments seem to be justified and doing well for now ​ Even in bear markets, you can always make money if you're patient and know where to look

English
1
0
1
238
CoinMamba
CoinMamba@coinmamba·
What kind of scam is this?
CoinMamba tweet media
English
254
48
875
305.7K
Antonio Hernández Ayuso retweetledi
ARENA MAN CAPITAL
ARENA MAN CAPITAL@ArenaManCapital·
Scare around AI for $CSU.TO and software has been the mentally easiest drawdown for me to weather despite representing ~55% of NAV. In a past life, started 3 companies, worked at many of big tech. Here's a list of topics to help folks gain informed views/conviction. 1/n
English
16
23
269
53.4K
Antonio Hernández Ayuso retweetledi
Javier Acción, EAFN
Javier Acción, EAFN@AccionEAFI·
Diploma con orgánicos del 14% y desplegando capital a 6,5x en negocios con márgenes de más del 20%. Que se ralentizará en el 2H, pero aún así... 😲 Siga así, Sr. Thomson! 👏🏽 $DPLM #DPLM
Javier Acción, EAFN tweet media
Español
1
1
14
4.6K