Noelan Janssen
78 posts

Noelan Janssen
@Noelanbj
I write about real estate development, and helping students launch a career in commercial real estate.
Seattle Katılım Mayıs 2009
187 Takip Edilen68 Takipçiler

@creromans CRM
Relationships are huge, goes without saying
But if we’re talking 80/20
But you can move buildings and spaces without relationships
If you have a list of people who want those buildings and spaces
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@bobbyfijan Totally agree! I feel people buy homes for emotional reasons, not financial. Yes the forced savings mechanism, and tax benefits are nice. But the decision is emotional, then backed up by logic. Long term leases seem like possible way to address the emotions
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In terms of “housing for families,” I’ve been thinking a lot about the buy vs rent dilemma, and how at its core, it’s a question of stability.
One of the main reasons families buy homes is to gain control over how long they can stay. Moving is always disruptive, but it becomes exponentially harder when you have children, especially school-age kids who really NEED consistency: environment, routines, friendships, etc
It’s not just about the physical move. It’s about having to change schools, say goodbye to neighbors, coaches, and friends … and to figure out where the tortillas are located in your new grocery store (never the same in any store). Parents aren’t just looking for a house; they’re looking for a place where their kids can put down emotional and social roots. And for that, time is what matters.
This is where multi-year leases: 3, 4, or 5-year terms could be transformative. They give families the predictability they’re often told only ownership can provide. For a parent enrolling a child in pre-K, a five-year lease means they could reasonably expect to stay in the same neighborhood through third grade. That’s enough time to build friendships, get to know teachers and administrators, and avoid the trauma of an unexpected mid-year move.
And here’s the key part … this isn’t actually that different from what many buyers get when they purchase a home. First-time homebuyers, especially younger ones, rarely stay for decades. The median tenure for young first-time buyers is just 5 to 7 years. People move for jobs, more space, changing finances, or just because their needs evolve. So in practice, a well-structured five-year lease could offer nearly the same temporal stability as buying, without the upfront costs, downpayment, debt risk, or geographic inflexibility.
It ALSO means a family doesn’t need the bigger house. One of the biggest objections I always hear to the family floorplans I share essentially boil down to “What about older kids?” A smaller, rental home is going to be lower monthly payment than buying, and when the family grows out of it … they can move!
What’s missing in most urban rental markets isn’t just affordability or square footage. It’s security. Long-term leases could be one of the most family-friendly innovations in market rate housing, particularly if paired with family-oriented designs.
This is esp valuable in cities where the for-sale market has become out of reach for middle-income families. Not everyone wants, or is ready, to buy. But EVERY parent wants to know they can enroll their child in pre-school or elementary school without wondering if they’ll be forced to leave after 12 months.
Three to Five-year leases could fill the gap between short-term rentals and the permanence of ownership, creating a third category of housing that honors the core need of families: stability across time.
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Comment for an invite code and I will send you one ASAP!
We will need to scale this gradually as Shortcut is pretty token-hungry.
Tryshortcut.ai
A huge thanks to our special projects team of researchers and engineers at @Fundamental
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Codes are limited at tryshortcut.ai
Beyond doing your work, it also has near perfect feature parity on Excel.
Directly edit, import, and export files.
That means there is no reason to go back to Excel. It's like going back to VScode after Cursor.
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@JSargent88 @MrFamilyOffice was about to reference "Lessons of History" too! Spot on.
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@MrFamilyOffice From the “Lessons of History” by Will and Ariel Durant:
Ben McCarthy@BenMcC
Concentration of wealth is natural and inevitable. It is periodically alleviated by violent destruction or peaceable partial redistribution. In this view all economic history is the slow heartbeat of the social organism, concentrating and recirculating wealth.
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@patcarino Id say it’s ideal if each demisable space has its own entrance. Deliver in warm vanilla shell condition, with bathroom, drywall, and HVAC. Second the shallower space. Full height storefront windows.
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“We should legalize weed”
What you thought would happen:
- people would be able to buy weed legally that’s been quality tested and they could have a toke in their homes on Friday nights
So you vote “yes”.
What actually happened:
- people vaping 90% concentrate while driving
- smoke billowing out of cars at every red light
- constant smell 24/7 walking around any downtown area
- your kids asking “what is that smell” non stop
- millions of people high all day long with zero ambition
- mental health problems skyrocketing everywhere
Huge mistake.
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The past two months have been a wild journey for me personally
On Jan 16th I was trying to figure out how to send emails at scale, while debugging Python code for GP-LP Match
On January 21st, the first deal went out to LPs and I honestly didn't know what to expect
Today, the platform has 1,378 LPs and 67 deals have been sent since Jan 21st 🤯
I'm not sure if we can call this a success, but one thing is crystal clear - I certainly couldn't have built this without all of your feedback and criticism
Thank you and happy Sunday🙏🏼
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@bobbyfijan The nook is great! I have an 1000sf DADU project, and we included nooks in the kitchen. Really helps define the space and open it up.
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@infilldeveloper Good to reflect and be grateful for where you are at
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@infilldeveloper Just started siding on project in Seattle, gotta move while weather is good
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@realEstateTrent Hard to say no to that quiet time once you have kids
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@CTown235 @moseskagan By far the quickest way to decrease permitting timelines!
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@moseskagan In Sonoma County, we’ve rebuilt over 5,000 homes. After the Tubbs Fire, the county outsourced all rebuild plan reviews to a company called 4-Leaf, Inc. They completed all 1st reviews in 2-weeks or less. Second reviews took 1-week or less. Let’s hope LA does something similar.
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Want everyone to know that, when Mayor Bass "cut the red tape" for affordable housing production, what she did was simply put affordable apartments in front of market-rate apartments in the permitting queue.
Before, market-rate and affordable took a year to be permitted.
Now, affordable takes a year and market takes two years.
Can you guess what will happen to affordable AND market rate permitting when she "cuts the red tape" on rebuilding the Palisades?
Joe Cohen@CohenSite
Mayor bass is promising to cut red tape to rebuild houses faster. It is unclear if she just means for rebuilding homes that have burned down or if larger permitting reforms are planned
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@YOCspread Epic list ! Would add: single vs double loaded. Storm drains towards the building or away. Thinking through pre-load plan if needed. Middle office node/office node orientation. Building depth from dock doors.
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When I am putting together a back of napkin site plan for a new industrial development, I concurrently have the below in my mind. If you are an investor on a deal and want some gut level feedback on something you are looking at - please DM me.
- Clear heights
- Truck court depths. What is market for size here? Do we need to think about trailer parking. It was easy to be greedy up to 2022.
- Column spacing in relation to clear height
- Where is water, sewer, storm? Go and dip some lids to confirm invert elevations. These will drive a minimum slope to the building and minimum pad elevation for the gravity lines.
- Maximum 6-7% truck drive aisle grades in and out of the site. Max 2% cross slopes. If site is highly expansive, we also do not want to be too flat either, so get away from those min. slopes.
- What are the spot elevations in google Earth in the street? What is it around perimeter of the site? What is it just on adjacent site into neighbors properties? This will help us understand if we need retaining conditions and potentially how tall.
- Where will the pump room/electrical room be in relation to services coming in?
- Will you run UG sewer in the slab or outside of building? I don't like having it 15-20 ft below grade in a building which often times you will see when the run is 700-1500 LF to a far office. I also do not like pumps. Maintenance headache.
- Will we have 1 primary electrical service or 2? Where on building makes the most sense?
- Traffic patterns into and from the site. Where is the freeway - will trucks turn mostly left or right out? Are you separating autos from trucks?
- How close are we to the nearest light or intersection? You may not be able to put your driveway where you think you can.
- Is there enough room in the street to accommodate a dedicated left turn in if needed? Do I need to think about dedicating some frontage for a decel lane? Eats up FAR, increases offsite costs.
- How is circulation around the site?
- Are we blind loading?
- Depending on size of building and market, do you need to think about securing truck courts? How do you accommodate circulation if you do this?
- How will it demise -what's needed to do so?
- Do we have prelim soils info (which we always will do early on in DD)? This will tell a lot.
- Just because you can Balance the site with no offhaul/import, it does not mean site work costs will be typical. You can balance a site by cutting and filling 10k CY or 100 K CY. One costs 10x.
- Where can the run off go? Can you do underground detention in this market? Some states / water boards do not allow. If you can't go UG then you need allocated area above ground.
- Where is power coming from? Is the current utility circuit a standard 12kv? Do you need to pull from larger transmission?
- Are there any utility poles along frontage that need to go UG or conflict with new driveway locations? Can you relocate the pole? Offsite $$$
- Depending on truck court orientation think about screening requirements from public ROW
- Scan Geotracker for known enviro cases. Are they closed or open cases? Is there even a path to close out? If you have offsite migration probably not realistically.
- Often overlooked: Get the fire flow information. Does it work with your required ESFR sprinkler demand? Pretty important with ESFR systems. ESFR heads operate at VERY high pressures and flow rates compared to conventional sprinkler systems. This will tell you if the measly 6" water supply connection will work for your project (probably not!).
GIF
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@LeylaKuni In North Seattle, we had no internet for 24 hours. Wild what it’s like going back in time!
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@sharethecities Couldn’t agree more. Even more frustrating that it is basically only happening because state forced cities to do it. That said progress, albeit slow, is progress.
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It’s really sad that “within a 1/4 mile of transit” is something to celebrate when this should be allowed anywhere inside Seattle. We have a housing crisis. People’s commutes to far away housing are growing. We need this legalized all over.
Noelan Janssen@Noelanbj
@bobbyfijan Love it! Seattles proposed comp plan update and rezone would allow for four of these (stacked) with in 1/4 mi of major transit.
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