TheOptionTheorist

March 2025 Update: 100,000 $RKLB shares 4.3$ avg; 26,000 $ASTS shares 25.23$ avg; Sold most of my $TSLA holdings and took some margin to increase ASTS holdings; Maxxed out! Go Space!!!

@RealPepeEscobar While Iran's fight is valiant and intelligent. They will be crushed eventually. USA is barbarian with a blank cheque (USD + Unlimited resources + Tech supremacy)

IRAN’S ONE MONTH DEADLINE: THE BREAKDOWN The Iranian proposal to end the war - delivered via Pakistan - contains 14 points. Barbaria wanted a 2-month ceasefire. Tehran: all the core issues must be resolved within ONE MONTH. And the focus should be on ending the war for good - on all fronts: not a mere ceasefire. Iran demands: Written guarantees of non-aggression. Withdrawal of U.S. forces from all areas surrounding Iran. End of the naval blockade. The release of frozen assets. Payment of reparations. A new mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz (Tehran is already formalizing it). The key points have been the same for weeks. Consistency and continuity: they have been examined by all legal decision-making frameworks in the country. Translation: the points are shared by Leader Mojtaba Khamenei as well as all relevant state authorities. They reflect Iran’s inalienable rights. So now the ball is in Barbaria’s court. Trump has already rejected it. Yet there might be room for negotiating some points. Otherwise, it’s total collapse. And the war is back. What’s certain is that there will be NO retreat. Moreover, Tehran refuses to discuss the nuclear dossier without a permanent end to the war. So that’s it: One Month. Why Tehran can do that? Because: 1. Iran de facto expelled the US from the Persian Gulf. 2. Iran seized control of the Strait of Hormuz. 3. Iran imposed deterrence on the death cult - which will not dare to do anything without full Barbaria backing. 4. Iran broke Barbaria’s blockade. THAT’s what inflicting an all-round strategic defeat is all about. And the icing on the layer cake: the Persian strategy is directly coordinated with strategic partner CHINA. Timed around the Goldfinger-Xi Dada summit in Beijing starting on May 14. For which Goldfinger will arrive with ZERO cards. The geopolitical consequences of all of the above are earth-shattering. So it’s no wonder Barbaria is discombobulated.

@CacheThatCheque awesome! thanks

@OptionTheorist The Investor's pocast Animal Spirits The Compound

“just drink a beer every now and then. solves ALL those problems” I’m sober so I shitpost on this app and listen to finance podcasts on 2x speed instead

@fortelabs SO, what have you built lately? Ironically, #obsidian is my second brain :P

I want to debunk the claim that I see a lot around here that Obsidian is "just plain text markdown files" which means "you can take them anywhere and open them with any app" That simply isn't true Yes, maybe the raw text of the notes is markdown, but many other parts cannot be moved elsewhere and opened by other apps: 1. The .obsidian/ directory contains your JSON config with plugins, settings, hotkeys, workspace state, link format, attachment paths – those can't be moved elsewhere 2. Plugin state files – Readwise's path-to-ID map, Templater's settings, Tasks plugin's database, Excalidraw's drawing data – even if plugins can be recreated, these settings cannot 3. .canvas files – JSON, not markdown. They reference notes by path and won't survive a move 4. .base files – JSON-based database/views over your notes. Same path-fragility 5. .excalidraw.md files – markdown wrapper around an Excalidraw JSON blob. Looks like markdown, isn't really 6. The link graph itself – backlinks, graph view, "linked mentions" – all computed from filenames and link references. They survive because the references are in the markdown, but they require Obsidian (or an Obsidian-aware tool) to materialize 7. Plugin-managed folders – Readwise output, Web Clipper output, Daily Notes location, Templates folder. Each is a folder whose contents are owned by an external system tracked in plugin state 8. Sync state – Obsidian Sync, iCloud, Dropbox, Google Drive each maintain their own state about what's where and what's been resolved. Move operations interfere with this state 9. Embedded query results – Dataview queries, Tasks queries, Bases queries. The query is in the markdown; the result is computed live and never persisted So technically you CAN move your files elsewhere, but you'd destroy most of what makes them valuable – the graph, the plugin state, the canvases, the embedded queries, the sync state, and any structural intent encoded in folder placement Which means you're just as locked in to Obsidian as any other "proprietary" app, it's just a hidden lock-in that's obscured by inaccurate marketing Saying "Obsidian is just markdown files" is like saying "your house is just bricks" The bricks are real and moveable – but the architecture, plumbing, and wiring aren't bricks, and those are most of what makes the house function

@hjluks @Catalyst2Thrive interesting! how was your lifestyle there in comparison to the west? I know being a tourist for 1-2 weeks is fun but long term residency has mixed reviews

@Catalyst2Thrive Def not... my fav way to explore, too. Enjoy. Lived there for nearly a year.

1st time in Tokyo! Is there a better way to explore a new city than w/ running shoes? (Obviously no need to answer 😉)

@RealMattMoney @stevenfiorillo High school physics.

If the center of the earth is hot… why is the bottom of the ocean cold? @stevenfiorillo

@gtbgtb Great news! keep going Gerard! $TMC

This determination marks an important step forward in NOAA’s transparent, rules-based process, and brings us ever closer to providing the U.S. with a new, abundant and lower-impact source of critical metals

@gnoble79 BULLISH!

This is the most OUTRAGEOUS deal I've seen in my 45 years on Wall Street. SpaceX just disclosed Musk's new compensation package: He gets up to 200 million super-voting shares if SpaceX hits a $7.5 trillion valuation, establishes a permanent human settlement of at least ONE MILLION people on Mars, and deploys roughly 100 terawatts of space-based computing power. Let me put the 100 terawatts in perspective: The entire electricity generation capacity of the United States is around 1.2 terawatts. The comp plan asks Musk to build more than 80x America's entire power grid... in orbit. This is a science fiction screenplay that somehow landed in front of the SEC. But here's why it actually matters for your portfolio... The S-1 reportedly claims a $28.5 trillion total addressable market, with over 90 percent attributed to AI. CapeFearAdvisors flagged this one cleanly: when Palantir went public, it disclosed a $119 billion TAM and the SEC reviewed and accepted it. SpaceX is claiming a market roughly 240x BIGGER. Now let's talk about what is actually being sold here: Reported 2025 revenue is approximately $15.5 billion. Starlink delivers around $11 billion of that with healthy margins, and the launch business is genuinely dominant. The problem is xAI - the AI piece doing all the heavy lifting in the trillion-dollar valuation pitch. xAI generated just $210 million of revenue in the first 3 quarters of 2025 while burning through $9.5 billion in cash. Ben Brey and Rupert Mitchell - a former Fidelity portfolio manager and a former head of equity capital markets at Goldman and Citi between them - ran a serious discounted cash flow on the actual operating businesses and arrived at roughly $400 billion. Lawrence Fossi covered their work recently and the math holds up. The IPO is being marketed at $1.75 TRILLION. The gap between what these businesses support and what Musk is asking the public to pay is roughly $1.35 trillion of pure narrative. Then layer on what we just learned last week... The New York Times investigation revealed Musk personally borrowed $500 million from SpaceX between 2018 and 2020 at rates as low as 1%, while bank prime rates sat around 5%. The same SpaceX has been used to bail out SolarCity, prop up Tesla during cash crunches, and absorb xAI when the AI losses became unmanageable. This is the same playbook he's run for two decades. Use a privately controlled entity as a personal piggy bank, and when the bills come due, find new investors to absorb the losses. The IPO is structured to keep that game going FOREVER. The Texas reincorporation strips away Delaware's fiduciary protections. Controlled-company status on the Nasdaq eliminates independent board requirements. And retail is being offered up to 30% of the offering (3x the normal allocation) because the institutions who actually do the math are quietly stepping away. Here is the part that finishes the case for me: Roughly $40 billion of the IPO proceeds are already spoken for before a single dollar reaches operations. About $23 billion retires SpaceX debt. Another $17 billion retires the high-interest debt sitting on xAI and X. This raise is not funding the future. It's just plugging existing holes that retail investors will now own. In my 45 years I've never seen a deal where the comp hurdle is colonizing another planet. I've never seen a disclosed TAM that exceeds verified comparables by two orders of magnitude. I've never seen a company asking the public to fund the retirement of debt incurred by separate private entities controlled by the same individual. Every red flag I've watched precede a major bust over four decades is sitting in this prospectus, in plain sight. The Tesla mispricing is being repeated on a far larger scale. And this time the bag is being handed directly to retail. Don't be the one holding it.

Great episode 133 of $RKLB weekly. Was wondering when would the number of Electron launches exceed the number of episodes of RLW ? 🤔 Thoughts ? @vinceisbullish @scotto2050 @RealMattMoney @daveginvesting

@FranciscoSpace5 its a close call. I'd guess more likely to see Electron 100 before Neutron launch (given past experience)

$RKLB What comes first?

Whoa that’s a full rainbow, all the way, double rainbow ohmygod, it’s a double rainbow all the way

exactly! quite shameless and insensitive of @blueorigin * also total failure not partial. Sat is going to de-orbit, and this needs effort and co-ordination on the part of $ASTS to do it right given the mass of the satellite.

@JeffBezos PRIMARY MISSION FAIL !!!! $ASTS

@AbelAvellan Please re-consider if blue origin as launch provider is appropriate especially after $GSAT . Even @isro did better (far cheaper?) than @blueorigin . Please go to @SpaceX reliable and high cadence.

The first stage was nominal, and the booster came back beautifully. We separated and turned on as expected, but the launch vehicle second stage did not place BlueBird 7 on its intended orbit. We are on Satellite 32 and plan to ship BB8 to 10 in approximately 30 days and continue to target ~ 45 satellites in orbit this year.

This failure of @blueorigin is unfortunate for $ASTS. Take a pause and appreciate the monumental achievements of @SpaceX and $RKLB - reliable rockets and precision orbital deployments.

@blueorigin please take responsibility and admit failure. else, it can be suspected that you willfully sabotaged the $ASTS mission i.e. killing competetion. something @amazon allways does to small merchants on their platform.

NG-3 Update: We have confirmed payload separation. AST SpaceMobile has confirmed the satellite has powered on. The payload was placed into an off-nominal orbit. We are currently assessing and will update when we have more detailed information.

It is unfortunate for $ASTS. It can even be said @blueorigin purposefully sabotaged their competetion? this is right out of @JeffBezos play book from @amazon , launching amazon basic products and killing small and upcoming merchants. @AbelAvellan please use @SpaceX

$ASTS THE HARSH TRUTH - basically this was a fail and payload loss. But @JeffBezos doesn’t care and shamelessly posting this! If ASTS is serious about rapid and reliable launches then @SpaceX is the only way.

Arrived!!!! It’s heavy!!!! 😍

@jrouldz similar to how tourists complain of too many tourists.

Every day I see posts from accounts talking about "retail investors doing this" and "retail investors are doing that" and I'm always thinking, sir, you ARE a retail investor 💀 Why do people have this urge to separate themselves? Why dissociate from your identity? Own it! 😂