OutspokenGeek

🧵Proof that Peter Lynch was (and possibly still is in his private investing these days) the greatest investor ever - images.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Do… People seem to have forgotten about Lynch in comparison to Buffett. /1

@realmemes6 In general, I agree with you on good founders, ownership and all that. But it works both ways. I don't know the back story in detail, but if they have all these legal issues of reneging on agreements then you gotta wonder about treatment of shareholders going forward.

@OutspokenGeek The legal stuff is what it is, mostly resolved favorably and what remains should be a one time cost.

Wild, $VG is now down on the day. It has run up a lot lately but this is very very significant news. No quick fix for this and it also increases the value of US based LNG. I believe in the industry Venture Global has the highest exposure to spot prices over the next 3 years?

@lithos_graphein And the newest version - x.com/OutspokenGeek/…

@lithos_graphein This 👇🏼 x.com/outspokengeek/…

The earth-shattering statement by Jensen td was that he said Moore's Law is dead. He implied we don't need to shrink chip geometry anymore bc we can easily replace that with application-specific compute. Then he named cuLitho as an example of app-specific compute, which is basically pouring salt on the wound. His words cut like knives.

See here for the latest version of that talk (just as important IMO as the GTC videos) - youtube.com/watch?v=4u8iMr…

Since this came up, the latest version of Bill Dally's talk has Moore's law contributing only 3x of the 5000x ML ops perf improvements -

outspokengeek.substack.com/p/short-note-b… Bloom Energy: Analogy, Capacity, Efficiency and marine applications $BE

@GregBae @firstadopter Repeat after me. The US is not one oil market. You might want to take a look here - energy.ca.gov/data-reports/e… CA doesn't have enough pipelines or refineries now to take stuff from the rest of the US.

@firstadopter The Middle East is less consequential for US oil demand than I suspected!

Well done Reuters. Kick ass data visualization

@gauravphoenix Yeah, going to stick to CF. UAN doesn't look like a long-term hold in comparison.

@OutspokenGeek Do you intend to sell afterwards when the price normalize? Just be aware of depreciation recapture if not already. Also passive loss takes time to build up to offset depreciation.

I was wrong about this. I didn't think that Iran and Israel would agree to cease fire and I thought it was reasonably likely this conflict would escalate. I didn't think Israel would stop while they're winning (risking Iran rebuilding and future October 7th style massacres funded and trained by Iran, or worse). And I didn't think the totalitarian Islamic Republic Iranian regime would be able to maintain power if it didn't escalate despite losing in the tit for tat with Israel. As a consequence, I'm eating an 11% down move in oil, with potentially more to come tomorrow and likely sympathetic moves down in related equities that I have exposure to. x.com/OilHeadlineNew…

@gauravphoenix Got it. I do own some oil names so I was referring to the implications of the below. Thinking of YOLOing into $CF and/or $UAN. The market appears way too complacent about what’s happening in the Middle East. Not Advice ofc. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd…

@OutspokenGeek My philosophy with the oil trade is very simple: something or the other keeps on happening in the oil world, and when the price goes up, companies do well; you get good distributions. I do not know enough about the agriculture industries to make a similar assessment.

@gauravphoenix Thx. I wonder what you think of the fertilizer names. Seems like that's a worse problem than oil but then easier to store/restart production than oil.

@OutspokenGeek I have following MLPs- $MNR - E&P $BSM - asset light, royalty income $EPD & $WES - midstream All of them are PTP structure (k1).

@gauravphoenix I'm curious, what MLPs do you use and what do you like now? And do you use the ones with the K-1?

x.com/gauravphoenix/… that's why I always buy oil equities (MLPs) when the price is low and never sell them- over long time, these big events will just look like noise and good companies will use them to buyback and/or provide juicy distributions. but timing the sell is bad call for commodity businesses in general.

The podcast is a week old. Yes, some of us Bloom watchers only got to know it now, but this 5 GW information has been out there for a while. A big problem is that Bloom still seems to operate like the private company they were for most of their life. As a public company they need to think about how they should be disseminating information and providing it to all investors at the same time in a fair manner.

@OutspokenGeek @FredDafunkier Interesting way to disclose the capacity increase. I suppose they wanna send the signal without the guidance? Hmmm. Stock was moving a bit early on a brutal day. I was assuming it was SP500 related, but maybe…

Interesting new information revealed by Bloom Energy $BE h/t @FredDafunkier for pointing to an interesting podcast with an appearance by Bloom’s Chief Commercial Officer with two interesting pieces of information. The first is that they are planning to expand capacity to about 5GW total over the next few years. Incidentally, I have independent confirmation of this from two other reliable sources about this. They won’t address this capacity issue in the earnings call and here they are giving out this information elsewhere. The second one is - “Then you look at it from fuel efficiency advantage, we will guarantee somewhere around mid 50s, 54, 55% life cycle efficiency over a 20-year period. I repeat, it's 55% over a 20-year period that captures all degradation because fuel cell starts with high 60% efficiency. So now you look at the data fuel advantage, if it brought up precipitating engines, you know, maybe they're at 40 to begin with, but then over time, recip or gas turbines go through significant degradation. So, the delta advantage on fuel cost is pretty significant.” The Bloom Energy Server 6.5 spec just simply says that the electrical efficiency is 65-53%. What is interesting is that actually guarantee the lower level. Considering the 6 year replacement cycle, the efficiency loss is about (53/65)^1/6 = ~3.3% per year. In reality that’s probably simplistic as there must a distribution curve for how the cells degrade.

@gauravphoenix outspokengeek.substack.com/p/elixir-from-… Probably my least read substack post.

@OutspokenGeek Link?

never thought I would say this- sold my vita $coco position for a decent 120%+ plus profit - held it for two years. the reason is quite simple- raised money to buy more of $VITL and the valuation of $COCO was just (coco)nuts. will be a net-buyer long term as and when valuation becomes reasonable.

@institLPGP @insane_analyst I didn't say Rolls Royce cannot turn itself around or that one should buy GE now. Having said that, Rolls does not make any engines for narrow body or small jets which is where a big portion of the future demand is likely to come.

@OutspokenGeek @insane_analyst answer is no. rolls royce is a perfect comp, 18 bagger and still cheap to ge $rycey

outspokengeek.substack.com/p/sometimes-be… Sometimes bet on the jockey, not the horse $GE

Remember when I speculated that he might come back as CEO? - x.com/OutspokenGeek/…

$INTC watchers, note the analogy to Intel that I point out in this post -