Paddy Blewer

@FatBoyNunn @thinkdefence Wimbledon. U14 finals day

@Padsky @thinkdefence An awful lot of parachuting to not be doing any parachuting. Are you at Cobham tomorrow? Would be good to settle this airborne debate on a field in Surrey.

Will be amusing if 82nd Airborne Division parachute into Iran just to end the endless debates on here about parachuting

@bopanc A kremlin mouthpiece not telling the truth? Peskov, Zakharova, Lavrov would never do such a thing....

Actually, he is lying - the report is true and confirmed by US officials: Dimitriev offered for Russia to stop helping Iran kill U.S. troops in exchange for relief in Ukraine. Witkoff and Kushner refused wsj.com/livecoverage/i…

@FideliusSchmid @christogrozev 150 bcm from gazex looking good to some

To make it clear: With this, Putin is back in the game. I wouldn’t be surprised, if Trump’s proxies were to soon reup their plans to repair the Baltic pipelines and try to sell „americanized“ Russian gas to Europe. Their chances to get NS1&2 desanctioned have just skyrocketed.

Happily I'm a xennial. So I got the Bundesarchiv Militärarchiv to send me personnel files on specific panzer officers and used the Internet to check my crappy translation.

@SStapczynski @CharlesEllinas Not in LNG but we’re Gazprom Export capable of max export again…… 150 bcm per year to Europe…..

This facility supplied nearly 20% of the global LNG market Unlike oil, there isn’t any spare LNG capacity or alternative routes. There isn’t a strategic LNG reserve There isnt a plant or country that can make up for Qatar’s shortfall bloomberg.com/news/features/…

Each week Qatar’s massive LNG plant remains shut, the world loses enough energy to power Sydney’s homes for an entire year 🇶🇦 ⚠️ Ras Laffan was damaged by an Iranian attack. And the length of its restart & repair timeline will have a huge impact on the global gas market 🧵

@EdConwaySky @shashj Gazprom export might be happy. All of them ex or current clients

👀 EXCLUSIVE- QATARENERGY CEO TELLS REUTERS: WE MAY HAVE TO DECLARE FORCE MAJEURE ON LONG-TERM CONTRACTS FOR UP TO FIVE YEARS FOR LNG SUPPLIES TO ITALY, BELGIUM, KOREA AND CHINA - From Reuters. This is bad.

@Clem_Hawk @JavierBlas Massive volatility means global anti hydrocarbons / pro nuclear and renewable policy is more likely. US can’t supply global shortfall. Short term profit but long term risk

@JavierBlas Why would they ? Higher prices mean they earn more $$, no?

US Vice President Vance plus other senior officials are meeting with the American oil industry today (at the API hq, rather than at the White House). It would be ironic if the US oil lobby was the one which put a brake on the White House's war campaign. I think that's likely.

Agree with most of this. We need to continue to develop UKCS to defend energy security and reliable supply. But. I’ve seen too many geologically positives cocked up by suboptimal engineering. or it turned out there probably wasn’t as much gas as hoped but shares need ramping.

@APHClarkson Algerian geology and lack of capital make that concerning. Libya isn’t a serious gas player. Norway can only provide so much

I think you could claim that right now Algeria, Norway and Libya are far more so

@SouthernRailUK Thanks for engagement. Train just started moving. Good luck

@Padsky Hi Paddy, we're currently looking into reinstating some services but are expecting disruption to last until 20:00. More information is available here: southernrailway.com/service-update… ^Van

@SouthernRailUK hi stuck between selhurst and w croydon for 20 mins. Is this a result of situation between Clapham/ Balham?

@METhompson72 @robert65281 @UKLabour Not enough liquidity in UKCS to fundamentally influence any price index. What there might be is enough - if incentivised- to provide enhanced energy security to UK.

@robert65281 @UKLabour By a factor of 5? You are missing the big picture: I am saying the whole market based system for UK power prices is broken and has done nothing but screw consumers. Smash it all down and start again: produce and sell our own gas at fixed prices that work for everyone.

Just watched Starmer trot out the @UKLabour garbage about there being an international price for gas yet again. A total, utter, LIE. Why oh why won't any credible journalist simply ask: "How come then that the European price for gas is 5x what it is in the US if there is an international price?" I am happy to meet anyone below and explain how gas markets actually work: @Peston @ChrisMasonBBC @BethRigby @bbclaurak @Steven_Swinford @alexwickham @IsabelHardman Listen to these experts: @KathrynPorter26 @CeeMacBee

@GeorgeTrefgarne challenging lecturer / seminar lead. got the most out of you

@BeirutCalling @Brian_Whit 6 is marginal. More failure than success in E Med upstream. Leviathan is great, everything else has been disappointing. Return on capital / investment not there for global players. Locals lack skills and capital.

If I had to guess what the Israelis plan, it would go something like this: (1) They occupy up to the Litani River, possibly opening a route to the Beqaa, through which they can connect to the occupied Golan; meanwhile, they grind down Hezbollah within areas south of the Litani; (2) This becomes an emptied buffer zone, north of which the Israelis would tightly control the area as far as Sidon, recalling that in the 1976 "red lines" agreement with Syria, the Israelis did not allow the Syrians to move south of Sidon, seeing it as an advanced security barrier. (3) The Israelis tell the Lebanese to disarm Hezbollah, or else they will risk losing the areas Israel occupies—thereby pushing the Lebanese state into a confrontation with the party and the Shiites. At worst, this creates chaos and civil war, which suits Israel just fine, protected as it is by the southern buffer zone. (4) Or, if the Lebanese refuse to enter into a civil war on Israel's behalf, the Israelis gradually integrate the south into their areas of control, as they did the Golan. North of that is an area of instability that keeps Hezbollah constantly occupied. (5) Lebanese promises of peace with Israel would be largely meaningless, as Israel is operating according to a security logic, and knows it is the Lebanese who will sue for peace once the Israelis have secured all the conditions they want. At that stage, the Israelis could impose peace, yet maintain control over all the land they have taken, or large swathes of it. This is what they seek in Syria and West Bank. Why not Lebanon? (6) Among these Israeli conditions is a new delineation of the maritime borders with Lebanon, giving Israel more hydrocarbon reserves than they already have today. The Israeli plan is the Iron Wall, hegemony, and Lebanon will not be able to do anything about it. (7) Hezbollah may think this would help it revive the resistance option, but would it? From where would it stage operations? From the Shouf, pushing it into a confrontation with the Sunni, Druze, and Christian communities? From the central and West Beqaa, where you have a signficant Sunni community? From the area south of the Awali or Zahrani, which would be under constant Israel surveillance and bombing? This would be a resistance with no strategic depth, one provoking the hostility of all non-Shiite communities. (8) In light of the above, what happens to the southern suburbs of Beirut? Do the Israelis destroy them completely, thereby cutting the community's ties to Beirut, eliminating a nexus of complex inter-Shiite communal relations, and erasing the focal point of the Shiite presence in the capital? We'll have to see. (9) This geographical fragmentation of Lebanon would revive doubts about the viability of a unified Lebanese entity. Caught between Israel on the one side and Iran and Hezbollah on the other, what chance would such a state have to survive? Lebanon can surprise, but ... (10) This is one possible scenario, but I'm sure there are many others.

The question of whether Europeans should or should not help in Hormuz is not about whether they should approve or disapprove of the war. It's about their own interest in re-opening the strait, whether that can be done with available assets, and the costs & risks of doing so.

@mikegalsworthy @ZiaYusufUK @ClaireCoutinho Ignoring natural gas? Why is the argument binary? Current renewable tech needs gas as installed capacity is not always available and storage is not there. This isn't an argument against remewables - we need more. It's an argument for more of everything.

@ZiaYusufUK @ClaireCoutinho We need our own energy. That means wind & solar. People who say North Sea don’t know what they’re talking about. We can’t drill there. We’re not Norway. We can only allow companies to drill there. And they send to refineries then sell onto global markets. No use to us.

Yes he is, and so are you @ClaireCoutinho

@Madz_Grant @WarGit Hanks can be exceptional In multiple genres. This isn’t about slagging him off - I agree with you’re judgement

@Padsky @WarGit Iconic yes but Hawthorne's acting is in a different league IMO

My most strongly-held Oscars opinion is that Nigel Hawthorne wuz robbed in 1995 and should have won for the Madness of King George. Devastating performance

@Tory_Brexit69 @DamianLow3 Although it’s a false comparison - tiny Norwegian populace and rivers run down mountains for hydro, meaning they don’t use gas for power.

@Tory_Brexit69 @DamianLow3 There was a choice. Strategic control through a national corporation a la statoil or a lower return through royalty / tax from private industry.

You do realise it was your idol Thatcher who sold it off