
Wow so soon! Has the coupling happened yet between Nino 3.4 SST and atmosphere? The collapse in the Tropical Easterlies is usually delayed. It’s the traditional measure of Australia’s BOM for declaring an El Niño.
A quick check with an AI and it has started to develop!
•Easterly Anomalies: While easterly anomalies persisted in the central Pacific through late 2025, since February 2026, these have shifted largely to the far eastern equatorial Pacific.
•Westerly Wind Anomalies (WWBs):Strong westerly anomalies have appeared in the western Pacific and near the Date Line in March and early April 2026, weakening the overall strength of the easterly trades.
•Outlook: The Madden-Julian Oscillation is projected to bring further westerly wind anomalies to the western Pacific in the coming fortnight, which is expected to enhance warming in the tropical Pacific.
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