Chloe

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Chloe

Chloe

@PebbleSchmebble

Investor, lover of $SIVE, fighter of bears

Katılım Mayıs 2026
21 Takip Edilen10 Takipçiler
Chloe
Chloe@PebbleSchmebble·
@softmaxedx If in doubt art of war that shii
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Askara@softmaxedx·
@PebbleSchmebble "If you can't beat them, siphon money out of them by longing their shorts." - Bull Tzu
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Askara
Askara@softmaxedx·
WHY IS $SIVE SO TRANSPARNT WITH INSIDER BUYING/SELLING?? Also I did an in depth analysis: Sivers used 60 words to discuss insider buying and 245 words to discuss or explain share disposals ROUGHLY 4.1X AS MANY WORDS!! (any $SIVE bear reading this please dm me, I have more concrete bear thesis for you guys 🥺👉💵😉) sivers-semiconductors.com/press/update-o…
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Chloe
Chloe@PebbleSchmebble·
@softmaxedx We are financial anime characters 👊
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Chloe
Chloe@PebbleSchmebble·
Tell me to stop posting about $SIVE - I'll post more. Such an interesting story! Tech sitting at the cornerstone of future developments, insider buys & (as far as we know) no sales from last years lockup expiry so far. A potential NADSAQ NY listing. CPO ramp? It's a cool story.
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Chloe
Chloe@PebbleSchmebble·
Also my god get off @aleabitoreddit 's back about $SIVE ! They ALWAYS said this was EARLY and a buy for H2 2026 - 2027 due to CPO ramp up timelines. Y'all held for a month saw a downturn (do you see how much its up ytd) and started witch hunting a person who was sharing an idea.
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Chloe
Chloe@PebbleSchmebble·
I do love the little Twitter community we have here. I would never have had the strength to watch a position go down 40% and still feel good about it if I didn't have you guys posting such inspirational content on the daily to boost morale! Big up my little corner of fintwit!
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Chloe
Chloe@PebbleSchmebble·
One of the best in depth analyses I've seen of $SIVE and their potential forward prospects. Thank you for this @cherryPayment
mark@cherryPayment

其实我们去看 $LITE 的市值变化会发现很有趣的事情:二十五年前它在泡沫里亏掉560亿,在25年初市值仅60亿美金,今天它却值六七百亿,而去研究他的发家史,我会不自觉的套用到 $sive身上。 2001年,一家叫JDS Uniphase的光通信巨头,一年亏了大约560亿美金。真金白银的年度亏损,上一轮互联网泡沫最大的墓碑之一。 今天我聊它是想去看懂这一轮AI里最容易被忽略的那条暗线;二是说句实话,我在拿它当一面镜子,去对照我最喜欢的一家公司 $SIVE。 这条暗线是:所有人都在抢光模块,可那颗藏在光模块里、最难造、连英伟达都得排队抢的激光芯片,是它供的。做光模块的公司被当"卖铲人"炒。可光模块拆开,里面那颗叫EML的铟磷激光心脏,五到六成出自Lumentum。它是卖铲人的卖铲人,那么硬到什么程度?2026年3月,英伟达直接掏20亿美金入股它、外加一份数十亿的采购大单,就为把它的激光产能提前锁死。全世界最懂算力供需的那家,用钱投了一票"这颗芯片会长期缺"。 但我更想让你注意的是它年轻时候的样子,因为它不是暴发户,是熬了几十年的老鬼。 1979年就有的血统,1999年合并成JDSU是那轮光纤狂欢里最亮的星,然后泡沫破了,亏掉560亿。2015年,它被当成一块"不性感的器件厂"分拆出来单过——给电信商供激光器、给苹果供Face ID的激光点阵,收入不小,故事平平,没人给估值。 接下来那十年才是关键。它趴在冷板凳上,靠一串"补器官"式的收购一块一块把造高端激光器需要的硬骨头焊进自己家:2018年吞Oclaro拿下相干光、2022年买NeoPhotonics拿下超窄线宽激光、2023年收Cloud Light一脚踏进数据中心光模块。到2023年底,家底攒齐了,可市值还只有35亿美金,没几个人拿正眼看它。 然后2025年2月,一个在光通信圈摸爬滚打小半辈子的老兵接过方向盘。几个月后,AI这阵风吹来了。结果就是那根鞭子:从2023年底约35亿,到2026年中六七百亿,不到三年,翻了18到20倍。 那就很好奇了它凭什么能被一把抡起来? 它是少数几个"手里真有货"的人。这十年的攒货,我在文里从头捋到尾。 现在说第二件也是我今天想聊的。 Lumentum年轻时候那个样子,和我买入的 $SIVE 现在像得让我后背发凉。 它俩做的是同一层的活:光互联最上游那颗铟磷激光光源。摩根士丹利那份"激光供应"名单本来就把SIVE和 $lite、 $COHR 归在一起。区别只在于时间——Lumentum是"跑通之后"的样子,SIVE是它十年前那个"手里正在攒货"的样子。 而且别以为SIVE是个刚冒头的初创。它真正对标Lumentum的那条激光光源命脉——Sivers Photonics,前身叫CST Global——是2001年从苏格兰格拉斯哥大学分拆出来的,做铟磷/DFB激光已经二十五年了,2016年就能月产上百万颗DFB激光器。Sivers这家公司2018年上了纳斯达克北欧的First North、2021年登上斯德哥尔摩主板。 不知道你看出来了吗:Lumentum是四十年的老手,SIVE的激光那条线也是二十五年的老手。 两个都不是暴发户,都是在这颗又脆又难的铟磷激光上磨了大半辈子的匠人:一个已经等到了风,一个还在等。这才是我把它俩摆在一起的真正原因。 你把两条路叠一起看,相似的地方太多了: 一样是那颗最难的InP激光光源、一样是几十年的老手;一样是小市值、没人看好、故事还没被主流讲透;一样在闷头攒家底——Lumentum当年靠收购,SIVE现在靠融资扩产能、靠一个个设计导入把自己焊进下一代CPO;也一样,都在等那个能把它一把抡起来的临界点。 Lumentum的临界点是英伟达那20亿 + AI那阵风。而SIVE 还在等它自己的那阵风,而目前我认为风来了(那一笔融资) 所以Lumentum这条18倍的路对我判断SIVE有两层意义:它先替我证实了这条赛道到底值不值钱(值),又告诉我SIVE想复制它,还差哪几步。我把SIVE现在走到了哪一格、还欠着哪几张"兑现凭证",画成了一张LITE照SIVE的对照图——具体哪几步,我留在文里,这里先不摊。 我前几天算SIVE从10亿到100亿是10倍。听着激进?可Lumentum刚刚当着所有人的面,走完了18到20倍。有些倍数,不是幻想,是已经发生过的先例。 至于Lumentum现在——太贵了,市销率约25倍、同行最贵,把未来两三年的好消息都提前兑现了,所以它对我的价值从来不是"买不买它",而是"照SIVE"。 完整的来时路、它到底跟谁在合作、以及那张LITE照SIVE的对照图,都在这一篇里。 (利益披露:本人无 $LITE 持仓、持有 $SIVE,非投资建议,DYODR。) 全文在 Substack: @markcherrypayment/note/p-207790901?r=8gv6xw&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@markcherrypay

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Chloe
Chloe@PebbleSchmebble·
@fynnvestor We need a catalyst - either positive earnings or news of NADSAQ listing - there's been too much bear chat now everyone who can buy the stock from the EU brokers is just biding their time to see what happens
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Fynn🇬🇧🏗️
Fynn🇬🇧🏗️@fynnvestor·
$SIVE 4% down to start us off for the week 🔴 We in for another red week or will sentiment change positive?
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Askara
Askara@softmaxedx·
I HAVE SEEN ENOUGH. WE'RE ENTERING A NEW BULL MARKET. OPEN THE MARKETS. START THE AYCE BUFFET. BOOK THE JAPAN TICKET. INSTALL THE AC. CALL THE LAMBO DEALER.
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Chloe
Chloe@PebbleSchmebble·
@JonasEmre7 I really do to be honest. The roadmap is intact, the team is expert. The indiscriminate sell offs we are seeing are a result of falling momentum, bear sentiment and general July/August sell offs/deleveraging (in my humble opinion). Come December I reckon I'll wish I bought more.
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Chloe
Chloe@PebbleSchmebble·
So my current predicament: ive got a large savings account (HYSA) which I intend to keep out of investments for a house purchase deposit next year. But wowee these $SIVE discounts today... do I take some money out and invest it or do I keep it there as I planned? 🤔
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Chloe retweetledi
AgAu Element
AgAu Element@AgAuElements·
If you’re wondering why your stocks are hitting a brick wall right now, look at the data: July and August are historically the dead zones where the trend goes to die. The data from 1927 to 2026 shows that while December is the holy grail, the summer months turn into a flat-line chop. July prints a negative mean monthly return (-3%) with an absolute ghost town of a t-stat (-0.1). It’s the classic mid-year momentum lull. The high-flyers lose steam, volume thins out, and the market spends two months churning sideways before the powerful September-to-December seasonal leg kicks back in. If your longs are experiencing a choppy, frustrating round-trip right now, don't panic and hold on to your position $AAOI , $SIVE , $NBIS ,
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Chloe
Chloe@PebbleSchmebble·
Day 3 of not even looking at my portfolio and just reading fintwit to see how cooked I am today $SIVE 🙃
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Askara
Askara@softmaxedx·
I do like mountains.
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