Phil Stephens
223 posts
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@ozsats256 @PhilipAStephens @markbouris @cjoye His opinion should be taken with a huge pinch of salt.
Dude's track record is in the gutter post-covid.
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@ozsats256 @markbouris @cjoye I did.
Found really interesting was he railed against government intervention (ie huge ndis budgets etc) and then said bitcoin:native is no good because it can’t get bailed out by the gov!
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@PhilipAStephens @markbouris @cjoye Dude did you listen to Chris’ opinion on bitcoin on the last pod? 🫣
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@markbouris @cjoye Great conversation here gents 👏
Your diagnosis of the problem is on point….
But what of the fix for the individual?
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Round 4 of Straight Talk with @cjoye is out now!
He is one of Australia's sharpest economic minds, a fund manager, AFR columnist, and architect of the indices used to measure Australian house prices.
Joye delivers a blunt assessment of where Australia is headed economically, arguing the country is increasingly taxing the private sector to fund an expanding public service. He explains how that policy shift could fuel inflation, weigh on house prices, and accelerate the brain drain that few politicians are willing to confront honestly. The conversation also explores what’s happening in the US economy, global markets, Bitcoin, AI, and much more.
Search Straight Talk wherever you get your podcasts. YouTube will be out tonight at 6 pm.
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BREAKING: South Korean stock market halted program selling trading as KOSPI crashed -6.5%.
Over ₩396,500,000,000,000 ($267 B) has been wiped out from the South Korean stocks in just 20 minutes.
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@APompliano @stoolpresidente Bangers from you this week Pomp 🔥 👏
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@AndrewCurran_ @jvisserlabs like Japan from your latest video… sovereign AI incoming!
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Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will unveil a massive 10-year $1.3 trillion project tomorrow involving semiconductor fabs, AI data centers, batteries, and displays. Korean press is reporting that the announcement will be made during a government briefing tomorrow afternoon.
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@AndrewCurran_ And all released over the last 18 months? 🤯
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This is why the frontier labs can't slow down.
Artificial Analysis@ArtificialAnlys
GLM-5.2 leads open weights models and sits at #3 overall on GDPval-AA, a real-world agentic work benchmark GLM-5.2 from @Zai_org scores 1524 Elo on GDPval-AA, which measures performance on real-world, economically valuable knowledge work through long-horizon, multi-turn tasks. Key takeaways: ➤ #3 overall, behind only Claude Fable 5 (1783) and Claude Opus 4.8 (1615), and level with GPT-5.5 (xhigh, 1509) ➤ The leading open weights model by a wide margin: the next open model, MiniMax-M3, scores 1408 ➤ Ahead of many proprietary models, including Google's Gemini 3.5 Flash (1357), Qwen 3.7 Max (1289), Muse Spark (1158) ➤ The tasks are agentic. GLM-5.2 averaged ~31 turns per task across 1,999 matches ➤ Consistent with the rest of its launch, GLM-5.2 also leads open weights on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, ranks #3 on the Agentic Index, and #3 on AA-Briefcase
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When you created your 6 year old son into an accountability partner.
Alarm goes off at 5am.
6 yo - “Dad can we go do the gym? You said when that sound goes you go do the gym!”
#good #ithink @jockowillink
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AUSTRALIA'S ENERGY MADNESS
I started this looking into why Australian households who installed rooftop solar are now being penalised for it. Victoria just slashed feed-in tariffs by 99 percent. The federal battery rebate pushes households to soak up their own excess at their own cost. The grid can't handle the midday surge because there is no flexible industrial load.
There is an obvious answer in plain sight. Bitcoin mining. Texas runs it through ERCOT. Miners curtail on signal and stabilise the grid in the process. Australia could be monetising solar oversupply at scale. Instead it taxes the households who installed the panels. And anyone who didnt or couldnt afford were taxed via higher interest rates due to govt spending waste.
At the same time, the same governments pitch the data centre buildout as a growth driver. AEMO has 5.4 GW in the DC connection queue. That load is 24/7 baseload, landing on a grid exiting 5.7 GW of dispatchable coal by 2030 with no firm answer for the gap.
Look at the chart. Ten countries are wiring nuclear directly into AI infrastructure. US restarting Three Mile Island. UK's Sizewell C. UAE's Stargate backed by Barakah. Australia is the red bar. The only G20 advanced economy that has walked away from nuclear in the 2026-2030 sovereign AI window.
So: kneecap coal. Kneecap gas. Penalise the solar households Canberra paid to install panels. Refuse the one technology every serious peer is using to anchor sovereign AI. Then export the uranium that powers their data centres.
I'm no energy expert. But Australia needs some adults in the room.
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At this pace I will at best be driving a Mazda by the end of the year
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@TFTC21 @_Checkmatey_ Love your riffs on the Aussie situation Check - great pod as always 👏
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"Below 70K is the bottom fifth of the market cycle. Welcome back to deep value."
@_Checkmatey_ says DCA'ing through the bottom 20% gives you plus or minus 5% the same cost basis as trying to nail the exact bottom with a lump sum.
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@zerohedge The Smartest Guys In the Room - epic documentary
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I don’t care what political affiliation or climate belief you have - a cost blow out from 2.4b to $40b is ridiculous and a serious response is to consider closing the project before we lose more
Pauline Hanson 🇦🇺@PaulineHansonOz
Snowy Hydro has conceded it may miss its 2028 deadline for finishing the Snowy 2.0 project and revealed its “disappointing” Italian contractor Webuild could suffer losses depending on the size of a major budget blowout. “The end of 2028 is not feeling comfortable,” Mr Barnes told The Australian on Thursday. “That’s probably that.” However, Mr Barnes disagreed with Webuild handing itself a high rating. “They’ve been a bit disappointing,” the Snowy chief executive said. “There’s been lots of things that they’ve had to deal with. They are pretty engaged with us. But it’s been challenging for them and it’s been challenging for us. Could they have done a better job? Probably.” Asked to elaborate, Mr Barnes said: “I think that’s probably best left to when we announce the new cost.” It's time to end the $40 billion+ Snowy 2.0 and Net Zero Scam.
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@chamath And look at what Australia is doing - taking away incentives and therefore reduce investment 🤦♂️
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Important thought experiment during a bear market...
How to size a position you can actually hold.
thewolfden.substack.com/p/important-ho…
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