Prin

814 posts

Prin

Prin

@PrinPaska

Rationality, Effective Altruism, health geek, longevity / biohacking, Lemonade, Tesla & other EVs, software engineering, forecasting.

Katılım Haziran 2010
567 Takip Edilen204 Takipçiler
The Analyst
The Analyst@MMatters22596·
If you've missed $AMD and $NBIS, don't FOMO. There's still enough undervalued stocks that have similar potential. 1. $CRWV 2. $NOW 3. $CRDO 4. $SOFI 5. $XPEV 6. $PLTR 7. $RDDT 8. zetachain:native These are my top picks in the current situation. What elsse would you add?
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Prin@PrinPaska·
@MMatters22596 Fintech $LMND: ~55% (but yes, it's due to a one time reinsurance change benefit; however, even without that, it would be ~33%, in line with premiums)
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The Analyst
The Analyst@MMatters22596·
Fastest growing company in every sector: Expected revenue growth 2026 Software: 1. $PLTR | 71% 2. $APP | 50% 3. $RRDT | 47% Data-Center: 1. $NBIS | 521% 2. $APLD | 137% 3. $SMCI | 80% AI Connectivity 1. $CRDO | 204% 2. $AAOI | 111% 3. $LITE | 110% Energy 1. $EOSE | 120% 2. $BE | 83% 3. $FLNC | 48.7% Semi-conductors 1. $MU | 192% 2. $NVDA | 72% 3. $AVGO | 63% Space 1. $LUNR | 350% 2. $ASTS | 155% 3. $RKLB | 42% Defense 1. $ONDS | 647% 2. $AVAV | 132% 3. $KTOS | 28% Fintech 1. $AFRM | 53% 2. $NU | 41% 3. $SOFI | 30%
The Analyst tweet mediaThe Analyst tweet mediaThe Analyst tweet mediaThe Analyst tweet media
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Prin
Prin@PrinPaska·
CFO If you think about our stock-based comp kind of zoom out a little bit and look over, say, the last 5 years or so, which gives a better picture and takes away some of the noise of stock volatility and things like that and look at our actual effective burn rate or dilution rate, which is really the thing that financially we're concerned about, it's right on target with best-in-class. It's sort of a 2-ish percent number, 1 point something to 2-point something over that very long-term period.
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Shai Wininger
Shai Wininger@shai_wininger·
Lemonade’s Q1 results are 🔥. So much to share, where do I start? First, get into the AI mood, click this, + volume ⏫ open.spotify.com/track/20HCH8XT… (by @kidfrancescoli) 🚀10th consecutive quarter of accelerating IFP growth 🔥 Topline at $1.33 Billion (IFP +32%) 🔥 Revenue grew 71% to $258M 🔥 Gross Profit increased 159% to $100M 🔥 3.14M Customers 🔥 Adj. Free Cash Flow $17M Lemonade Pet exploding! ✅ Surpassed $500M top line early in Q2 ✅ #1 most searched pet insurance brand in the U.S. ✅ @lemonade_inc is now the 4th largest pet carrier in the U.S. ✅ AI-powered automation drives record claim handling efficiency (LAE: ~4%) ✅ Our data + tech edge lets us lower prices while boosting profitability Car picking up speed ✅ Now at 60% YoY growth, $214M IFP ✅ Loss ratio improved to 74% (14 pts better YoY) ✅ Autonomous Car for @Tesla FSD conversion rate 70% higher than standard And more... ↗️ Raising 2026 top & bottom line guidance ↗️ IFP per employee > $1M (3x improvement in 4 years) ↗️ Positive Adj. EBITDA in Q4 ↗️ Investor Day in NYC November 17
Shai Wininger tweet media
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Prin@PrinPaska·
@MMatters22596 @juiceboxlines Valuation is low. Fair value > $150. Q1 Adj. EBIDTA will be -16 to -7 (if loss ratio is low). Full year Adj. EBIDTA will likely be close to break-even. With Q3 or Q4 as the first + quarter. Not going under $50 if macro holds.
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The Analyst
The Analyst@MMatters22596·
You're right—they're approaching EBITDA breakeven (positive expected Q4 2026). But full-year 2026 guidance still shows ~$50M adjusted EBITDA loss, so Q1 (Apr 29) will likely be another clear miss. Given the high valuation and LMND's history of violent post-earnings drops, even mild disappointment could easily trigger an immediate 15-25% pullback.
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The Analyst
The Analyst@MMatters22596·
$LMND So far, everything has played out quite well. There is still a possibility of another short-term push higher into the $74–$88 range (blue zone), but my bottoming target remains unchanged. I don’t expect $LMND to start its next bullish impulse before reaching the $40 area. Over the mid term, prices around $162.76 appear realistic. What are your thoughts on $LMND — is it worth investing?
The Analyst tweet media
The Analyst@MMatters22596

Future $LMND millionaires buy below $50 and sell above $300... My short-term outlook is bearish. I expect $LMND to bottom within the highlighted zone between $53 and $32. Also note the 200-week MA, currently around $29, which could be tested before the next major upside move.

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Prin@PrinPaska·
@StockMarketNerd This view seems to be too cynical to me. Especially given has bad Sam is...
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Prin@PrinPaska·
@elonmusk @dvorahfr BTW X Spaces on an Android phone (the latest Pixel) are absolutely unusable, basically it doesn't work. CC @nikitabier
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Prin@PrinPaska·
@elonmusk @dvorahfr BTW X Spaces on an Android phone (the latest Pixel) are absolutely unusable, basically it doesn't work. Also would appreciate better speed control for playback of a recorded space: 0.1x increments.
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Déborah
Déborah@dvorahfr·
I'm based in France, but 43% of my audience is American. I know many of us are in the same situation. To reach a wider audience, all my posts are in English, the international language. Those who cause trouble may be punished, but with this change, which will significantly reduce our earnings, you're also penalizing a number of accounts that use the international language without any ill intent. X tells us that videos and new, high-quality content will be prioritized, but this change will, on the contrary, drastically reduce our earnings. Is there any way to reverse this decision, please?🥺 @XCreators @X @nikitabier @elonmusk
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Nikita Bier@nikitabier

Starting Thursday, we'll be updating our revenue sharing incentives to better reward the content we want on X: We will be giving more weight to impressions from your home region—to encourage content that resonates with people in your country, in neighboring countries and people who speak your language. While we appreciate everyone's opinion on American politics, we hope this will disincentivize gaming the attention of US or Japanese accounts and instead, drive diverse conversations on the platform. We invite creators to start building an audience locally. X will be a much richer community when there's relevant posts for people in all parts of the world.

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Prin@PrinPaska·
@bjmtweets Thanks for sharing! I'm a bit surprised you didn't buy the dip on $LMND. I understand $ROOT is much cheaper, but Lemonade has faster and more robust growth. Arguably better prepared for FSD, etc...
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Brian McCormick
Brian McCormick@bjmtweets·
Portfolio Update: Increased to 5 positions I like all of these bull cases. $GTLB is one of the few AI beneficiaries without the threat of supply glut or customer concentration and is reasonably insulated from a recession.
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Prin@PrinPaska·
@bjmtweets I asked Claude to compare $SOFI, $NU, $MELI, and $SE. Sofi has the largest loan portfolio compared to equity and by far the largest relative to revenue. (The order is as listed.) claude.ai/public/artifac…
Prin tweet media
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Prin@PrinPaska·
I’m not comfortable using a normal recession as the risk model. In a recession the market understands it’s temporary, and stocks usually rebound long before the recession is fully over. What I imagine instead is relatively highly paid office workers gradually losing their jobs — slowly at first, then faster and faster, with no clear end in sight. The only potential backstop would be the government introducing some form of UBI / UHI, and I wouldn’t dare predict how long policymakers might drag their feet before doing that.
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Brian McCormick
Brian McCormick@bjmtweets·
Capital allocation question: $SOFI or $NU? If you had to lock up capital in one for the next 5 years, which are you taking and why?
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Prin@PrinPaska·
I follow $SOFI much more closely than $NU. I have a relatively small position (~2.5%), but I’ve been reluctant to buy the dip aggressively because of the loan portfolio risk. I consider that the main risk. It might be more of a tail-end risk for this year, but not in the 5-year horizon you mention. Over that timeframe, I actually consider it my base case. Otherwise, I like the company, the CEO, and the valuation.
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Brian McCormick
Brian McCormick@bjmtweets·
@PrinPaska What are the biggest non-tail end risks with these stocks in your view?
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Prin
Prin@PrinPaska·
@MMatters22596 $LMND in fintech/insurance. 3 year target: $300
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The Analyst
The Analyst@MMatters22596·
My top stock pick for every sector right now + 3 year price targets Fintech - $SOFI | SoFi Technologies Target: $80 Data-center - $NBIS | Nebius Group Target: $255 Photonics - $LITE | Lumentum Holdings Target: $1350 Software: - $ZETA | Zeta Global Holdings Target: $125 Defense: - $EOS.AX | Electro Optic Systems Target: $35 Health: - $OSCR | Oscar Health Target: $75 Space: - $RKLB | Rocket Lab corporation Target: $380 Energy: - $BE | Bloom Energy Target: $375 Robotics: - $XPEV | Xpeng Target: $130 Insurance: - $PLMR | Palomar Holdings Target: $310 Cybersecurity: $RBRK | Rubrik Target: $260 What are your picks?
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Prin@PrinPaska·
@shai_wininger @Gdjs9zgxwxG @Lemonade_Inc Thanks for the responsiveness! Would be curious to know what went wrong in this or similar cases, once you find out. Maybe the AI customer support should escalate to a human sooner in similar cases (especially in case of a brand new product)?
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Shai Wininger
Shai Wininger@shai_wininger·
@Gdjs9zgxwxG @Lemonade_Inc Wow. It looks like a lot of things happened at once. I can assure you our intentions are good (not that it matters much here) and that we are absolutely not a scam :) I’d like to personally try to help and hopefully change your perception. Please DM me.
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T G@Gdjs9zgxwxG·
I am sorry to report that the @Lemonade_Inc Tesla FSD discount may be a scam. I enrolled in their insurance after seeing their ad, but there was no discount at all. After frustrating email exchanges with what seemed like AI or terrible customer service, I was told I quoted one day before the discount applied, so it didn’t cover my plan. I was then told the discount would start from the next billing cycle, which was untrue. Finally, I was advised to cancel my current policy, get a new quote, and start a new plan. The best part: The new quote was much higher than my current one—to the point that my existing plan without the discount would be cheaper than the new one with it. So I’m just going to cancel. I no longer feel @Lemonade_Inc is a trustworthy insurance company. @SawyerMerritt @wholemars
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STK ČR
STK ČR@CR_STK·
Rekordní rok pro elektromobily: V ČR bylo v roce 2025 zaregistrováno 14 119 elektrovozidel.
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