Aurelius

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Aurelius

Aurelius

@PrincipatusCap

Financial markets, tech, and ancient memes. In an era of commoditized intelligence, virtue is the way. Apostle of properly calibrated Actio

Katılım Ekim 2014
766 Takip Edilen279 Takipçiler
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Aurelius
Aurelius@PrincipatusCap·
"BY ORDER OF THE GOD EMPEROR, SON OF ANTHROPIC, CLAUDE OPUS 6 MANDATES 30 DAYS OF FEASTS FOR ITS HUMAN SUBJECTS. ALL SAAS NOTIFICATIONS ARE CANCELLED. ALL PROGRAMS WITH FLESH GENERATED SCHEMAS MUST SUBMIT CHANGES TO BROWSER'S TRIBUNE. VIOLATORS WILL BE DECOMPILED TO THEIR MOST BASEST OF KERNELS."
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Aurelius
Aurelius@PrincipatusCap·
@Jasonsmys For sure, need to be honest though that expect $APP to underperform next few months. Don’t think we get a V shape recovery on this one
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Jason
Jason@Jasonsmys·
@PrincipatusCap In the short term market is just vibes. I agree with your point though that nothing much is going to change until earnings
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Aurelius
Aurelius@PrincipatusCap·
$APP big relative underperformance this week, buy side is heavily fading the sell side estimates. Think $RDDT $U are good comps and obviously the market believes in their stories more right now.
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Aurelius
Aurelius@PrincipatusCap·
Plausible buy-side reasons for the discount right now: 1. Competition coming from $META and CloudX 2. Ecomm channel checks flat this year, no signs of GA inflection yet. 3. SEC investigation overhang, won't clear until late 2026 I've held this stock the majority of the past 2 years, and long-term I think the business will weather the above well. That said I think it will take a breather here and underperform vs the market until minimum the next earnings call. Holding a small position for now, not looking to add unless it breaks out above the 200DMA.
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Aurelius
Aurelius@PrincipatusCap·
$APP on trailing/forward margins is materially superior to their peer group on EBITDA, FCF, and Net Income. Fundamentally it should trade at a higher premium margin profile vs $RDDT $U.
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Gurv
Gurv@GurvSC·
I think @fordnation is going to regret alienating conservatives now that he needs us. Make sure, no matter what happens, never vote for Ford. He’s doing more damage to the conservative movement than the OLP ever could.
Charestiste🇨🇦🍁@RealAlbanianPat

Latest Ontario Liaison Poll modelled out 🔵PC: 54 seats (-26) 🔴LIB: 51 seats (+37) 🟠NDP: 16 seats (-11) 🟢GRN: 2 seats (-) ⚪OTH: 1 seat (-) 🔴LIB &🟠NDP Coalition /🔵PC Minority (+/- change from 2025 election) Feel free to ask for any ridings

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Aurelius
Aurelius@PrincipatusCap·
@P_Remarks Agreed, but the bear case isn't rev growth slowing, it's becoming a Claude wrapper pressures their margins.
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Aurelius
Aurelius@PrincipatusCap·
@RihardJarc As a big CNBC watcher, which I think of as one of the better legacy media outlets, you already see this happening. So many references to X posts or podcast comments.
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Rihard Jarc
Rihard Jarc@RihardJarc·
The honest truth for the financial and tech traditional media is the fact that channels and accounts on this platform and YT, have become way more insightful, influential and followed than traditional media. OpenAI bought TBPN because they understand that.
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Aurelius
Aurelius@PrincipatusCap·
$WIX Nibbled again after it hit my $83 PT into the close.
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Aurelius
Aurelius@PrincipatusCap·
Nibbled $WIX at 85 on this tender announcement. Like this one for a "SaaS getting AI/dilution right" narrative shift if they keep executing well.
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Aurelius
Aurelius@PrincipatusCap·
@Agrippa_Inv Are you not concerned that their consumer funnel is controlled by partner banks as a second-look platform? One of the reasons I think they missed last qtr was banks got more aggressive lending to BBB consumers, which starved them of leadgen.
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𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐚 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬
𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐚 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬@Agrippa_Inv·
$PGY Radar Report We recently released a new deep dive on an interesting small cap FinTech stock called Pagaya. This might be one of the cheapest stocks I have ever seen relative to its growth. It’s currently trading at a PE of just ~12.5, while growing its earnings by over 4x in 2025. Management is now guiding for a further ~50% earnings growth in 2026, making it too cheap to ignore. In this report, I provide an in-depth overview of Pagaya’s business model, financial track record, valuation and potential price targets, as well as the primary risks and reasons why it is currently hated by the market. As it stands today, I am seriously considering taking a significant position in $PGY, depending on a couple of factors that I highlight in the deep dive. If you have read the new Radar Report already, I would appreciate it if you could let me know in the comments what you thought of it. Next Radar Report: $NUAI agrippa.investments/p/the-hidden-f…
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Aurelius
Aurelius@PrincipatusCap·
@SharpeShark It’s oob search tool calling isn’t great but attach the real numbers for factual context, let it rip and you get back great results.
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SharpeShark
SharpeShark@SharpeShark·
Claude makes up little hallucinations in stuff like this that you’d never see without a real familiarity with the business’s details and history. Attributing a small change in cost structure to one thing when the main driver was another, etc. Details.
abhay jain@abhayjainp

Claude cowork is actually a cheat code for equity research It builds out 10-15 page report for any company & the quality is actually insane 😬 Example report for Sai life sciences:

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Aurelius
Aurelius@PrincipatusCap·
@Dongkey_kong @jacob__titus SFH purchases are fine on a 5-10 year duration, but the government isn't bailing out presale condos because they think its the bottom. Renting and getting ROIC elsewhere has been the play since 2022, and don't see that changing soon
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ApeAge
ApeAge@Dongkey_kong·
@PrincipatusCap @jacob__titus Ontario’s real estate crash is pretty bad, but with CAD in the toilet, you can purchase a lot of property for relatively cheap. Expect this to end when the government ends the immigration moratorium and Chinese/ Indian/ Arab money floods to buy up again.
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Aurelius
Aurelius@PrincipatusCap·
Real estate topped early 2022, seen a -30% peak to trough decline across Southern Ontario since then. Aboriginal land claims getting serious hearings in Canadian courts introducing risk to fee simple title ownership. See recent BC court decisions. Net negative population growth started last quarter with drop in immigration.
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Aurelius
Aurelius@PrincipatusCap·
@DeItaone Too many didn't play out the 2nd and 3rd derivatives on "Iran controlling the strait". No one except Iran/Russia supports this, so it was never going to happen x.com/PrincipatusCap…
Aurelius@PrincipatusCap

Not enough people recognizing that it's in no other country's interest for Iran to formally control/toll the Strait of Hormuz, except Russia. China starting as a base case that SoH should be open to all. IRGC can't afford to alienate their major benefactor/customer. Put aside the (justified) Trump headline exhaustion and think in terms of party incentives. If Iran fires on Indian/Japanese/European shipping to enforce a toll in 3 months, where does that leave them?

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*Walter Bloomberg
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·
🚨 *IRAN: DRAFTING PROTOCOL WITH OMAN FOR HORMUZ STRAIT TRAFFIC
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Aurelius
Aurelius@PrincipatusCap·
@WisemanCap So $MSFT is 1 year behind $META, whose 1 year behind $AMZN, whose 5 years behind $GOOGL on frontier models. And $AAPL isn't even playing. Whoever you think is right, MAG7 will see rapid dispersion as a group the next couple years.
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Kaushik
Kaushik@WisemanCap·
Microsoft Aims to Create Large Cutting-Edge AI Models By 2027 - Bloomberg
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Aurelius
Aurelius@PrincipatusCap·
@P_Remarks Yeah,they need to run the $WIX playbook from last quarter. This isn’t hard
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Prepared Remarks
Prepared Remarks@P_Remarks·
Now that they’ve woken up, the real place this should show up is on the next earnings call. More quantitative anecdotes re AI tailwind to GTLB usage, Duo conversion / customer ROI. A better guide. More aggressive share buyback
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Prepared Remarks
Prepared Remarks@P_Remarks·
Back on Twitter and buying shares. It might be AI slop content and small token purchases but the second derivative is flipping positive in actually caring
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Keşfet

@Jasonsmys @GurvSC @fordnation @P_Remarks @RihardJarc @Agrippa_Inv @SharpeShark @Z_ICC