Ravi

Investors see a 10% long-term returns as a given considering the rock solid returns in the US over the last century but that return was earned The US attracted the best and the brightest from around the world, had stable governance, the rule of law, and a light regulatory touch

@conorsen Abundance for sports!

Gotta make the NBA Finals best of 15.

@conorsen Self driving is going to dramatically change land values all over the country

In the spirit of buying housing and value stocks in 1999 or $GOOGL and say Brooklyn/Denver/Austin real estate in 2006, I wonder what we’ll look back on as the obvious non-AI investment opportunities of 2026.

@finickus @rev_cap 100% yes He has zero loyalty to anything. Sure, he’d kill as many Iranians as necessary to get out of this, but more bombing isn’t going to solve anything. Maybe he’ll do another round of bombing but he’ll walk away afterwards.

@Ravi_711 @rev_cap Right. I don't doubt that But allowing Iran to roll the strait and keep the nuclear material throws KSA and Israel under the bus Maybe he is that craven?

@finickus @rev_cap Trump says he won California. He’ll have no problem saying that the US win even if we pay reparations and send our nuclear scientists to help them build a bomb faster.

@rev_cap Trump can't just write it off though Iran winning means: they keep the nuclear material, keep authority over the strait, and continue to threaten crucial US allies in the region I just don't see the options

@MLBerry55 @SingleBearel @Micky_Horstman FWIW, I was curious about income vs distance. This is from ChatGPT. The Bears and everybody making decisions around concert venues will have access to granular data on this. I think the reason that this is still dragging on is that the Bears simply don't want to move to IN.

@Ravi_711 @SingleBearel @Micky_Horstman There are just as many high income areas in the SW burbs. For those in the north & NW burbs just hop on 294 or 355 and travel times will relatively be the same. For those in Winetka & Lake Forest they can fly their aircraft in or relax slightly longer in the back of their limos.

I don’t see a Hammond Indiana or an Arlington Heights stadium (tbh) attracting any big artists while Soldier Field is still open. That’s the main incentive for owning! So, how do they think they are going to make money? There aren’t even that many stadium tour caliber artists!

@MLBerry55 @SingleBearel @Micky_Horstman Of course. but average travel times for high-income areas is going to increase.

@Ravi_711 @SingleBearel @Micky_Horstman Suburban fans south of the Ike and Reagan will disagree with you. It’s much faster to travel to Hammond and back than it is to travel into downtown Chicago and back.

@SingleBearel @Micky_Horstman 100% agree on the Bears. It won't matter until they are bad for years at a time and hopefully that isn't anytime soon. The same rules won't apply for concerts. You can still buy Foo Fighters tix for Aug concert at SF. There would be even more available in Hammond.

@Ravi_711 @Micky_Horstman Again I agree AH is better. But Bears are one of the best traveling teams in the NFL. Sometimes other teams home games have more Bears fans than the home team

@mrpapageorg1o @Micky_Horstman @SingleBearel Take a look at the top grossing tours over the last 10 years. In general, if they are playing in January, they are playing overseas. You'll get some March and Oct dates where SF won't work but winter stadium dates don't happen very much.

@Micky_Horstman @SingleBearel @Ravi_711 According to who?

@SingleBearel @Micky_Horstman The problem for Hammond is going to be two fold 1) Travel times matter. On the edge, you are going to lose customers from high-income suburbs of chicago. 2) The tourist case is tougher to make. Spend a day wandering around the city and head to SF at night vs going to Hammond

@Micky_Horstman @Ravi_711 Thats not what my reply is about. My reply is to your other comment saying stadiums in AH and Indiana wouldnt attract big names

@jlrizzoii @villi I think a wealth tax is a terrible economic idea. I think people are angry and that one aspect of that is the super rich (like Bezos) paying a lower tax rate than many far below them on the income ladder. Making LTCG rates more progressive is a way better way to deal with that.

@Ravi_711 @villi If it's such a great idea, you'd happily pay it on the present value of your future salary, right?

This is a half truth. The top 1% is bankers, layers, small business owners, and highly paid employees and execs. They pay a very high effective tax rate. The super wealthy like Bezos, pay an extremely low effective tax rate, similar to a middle class family.

@jlrizzoii @villi Wealth tax, here we come

@Ravi_711 @villi It's 27% spread vs a ~23% spread.

@jlrizzoii @villi Barely. A substantially more progressive capital gains tax is far better than a wealth tax.

@Ravi_711 @villi capital gains tax is progressive

@parthpatel1312 @SKundojjala JP Morgan yesterday

@SKundojjala Hey, this snip is from which transcript?

Qualcomm's elusive search for growth driver coming to an end. Custom silicon revenue kicks from 2HC26 and sees 'very material' revenue in '27. Broadcom and Marvell target competition. Layering on top of this, CPU and AI accelerator which will roll out from '27 and beyond. QCOM is ready to take lower GM to get into the DC space but sees OPM accretive opportunities. Wouldn't be surprised if QCOM's DC revenue overtakes handset revenue in a few years time if they follow-up with a strong roadmap. QCOM is also working with hyperscalers on personal intelligence devices, a well suited effort.

@insane_analyst Jensen is an absolute killer

FYI someone pinged me about Lumentum at JPM conference where "they basically said they sold all their lasers to Nvidia". $LITE makes at least 80% gross margin on lasers sold to $NVDA. My most bearish calculation is 81%. Others pay 87% gross margin or higher.

@BluthCapital I think the idea that the quality of Claude has degraded due to a capacity shortage is pretty widespread. and that they would have no chance of serving demand if they launched Mythos.

What exactly is the AI bottleneck now from a product perspective? Faster response times? AI "works" right now, and it's impressive. It's not breaking/not working right now so what are the DCs going to provide? This is what befuddles me.

@buccocapital I think you are overestimating their ability to shape the narrative. Self-driving has the potential to save tens of thousands of lives, avoid millions of injuries, and save hundreds of billions in medical/insurance/productivity costs. and cities are still trying to ban it.

1 of 3 things is true about big tech’s AI narrative: 1) Nobody can tell a compelling story about how AI will be good for society 2) It hasn’t occurred to them to tell that story 3) They believe it’ll be bad, but it’s not their job to fix it I don’t know which is more damning

@buccocapital The worst part is that these cuts are happening in the year that we are hitting peak 18 year olds. It is only going to get worse from here.

Declining fertility, rising costs, making America hostile to foreign students, AI automating entry level work, questionable (very bad) ROI A very bad cocktail of headwinds for higher education

@kurtsaltrichter @jam_croissant If Warsh had been at the fed in ’21 the trimmed mean PCE would have meant the fed would have been even later than they were. It lagged the core PCE meaningfully.

Warsh has signaled he wants to change the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The Fed has used Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, as its benchmark since 2000. Warsh favors Trimmed Mean PCE, which removes the most extreme price movements each month instead of excluding whole categories. The practical difference: Trimmed Mean PCE currently reads 2.36%, well below the 3.20% reading on Core PCE. Depending on which measure the Fed follows, the case for rate cuts looks very different. This is not a minor procedural change. The metric the Fed uses to gauge inflation directly determines when it judges the economy to be at target. If Warsh moves the committee toward Trimmed Mean PCE, he is mathematically moving the Fed closer to a declared victory on inflation, which creates runway for rate cuts even as headline readings stay elevated. You’d think with 400+ Ph.D. economists and 500+ researchers on the payroll, the Fed would run the most sophisticated macro forecasting operation on the planet, leaving Bloomberg and every major hedge fund in the dust. Not even close. When the data doesn’t cooperate, just change the data. Same thing I saw in the Army when time or weather worked against higher leadership, and we would quietly move the goalposts rather than admit the standard couldn’t be met. Can you tell why I didn’t stick around for the full 20 years?