RepoTactics

Sure is hard when the indices become a single factor bet. Capex up 70% YoY in 2026 against ~$150-180B in disclosed hyperscaler AI revenue. Question I've been pondering is, what % of that revenue traces back to frontier labs and VC backed startups (which themselves funded by hyperscaler equity and venture capital) vs real arms length enterprise demand? Hyperscalers don't disclose customer concentration. Hard to know. But strip out the subsidized portion and the ROI math on 750B/year of capex looks meaningfully different.

@DsrPrivate Equity shorts are an endangered species

@DsrPrivate x.com/hey_itsmyturn/… Looks to be this

@DsrPrivate Makes sense, thanks

@DsrPrivate This look about right? 0.5% AUM - 6080/6180/6280 0.5% AUM - 6765/6865/6965

Yep, a high inflation environment triggers an automatic deleveraging cycle on a net basis. I see the 235% gross debt always cited, but it completely ignores the other side of the balance sheet. 135% net debt requires netting out 100% of GDP state asset buffer: Forex reserves: 30% GDP GPIF assets: 33% GDP FILP capitalizations: 37% of GDP Liabilities are almost entirely domestic while the asset portfolio is weighted toward foreign currency. Rising domestic inflation directly erodes the real burden of the 235% gross domestic debt. Any resulting JPY depreciation then mathematically expands the JPY valuation of the foreign assets. I.E. JPY depreciates 20 percent against the USD, the real value of domestic debt falls while the FX reserve buffer instantly increases in value by 20 percent. The falling value of domestic liabilities and increase in the foreign asset base engineers a rapid net deleveraging. Japan seems to finally be working through the debt woes!

Notice how Japan is finally escaping its debt trap at the end, especially in real terms. Japan's inflation will finally set it free.

@frothyassets Has to do with the JHEQX collar roll combined with quarterly rebalancing, and now leveraged ETFs buying. JHEQX was ~10 bln buy flow today, mandate funds were around that, potentially bigger, and now LETFs are around that size due to the one sided price action today.

Oil + treasuries relatively muted despite huge equities/vol crush moves. Very odd.

@ShortSeller x.com/shortseller/st… Don’t let the little people steal your focus and energy, Andy. The true test is having character - and that you have my friend! Keep up the great work, always amazed at your charting abilities

I'm good bro, and even better am not a fraudulent asshole like you who would seek to dredge up my honesty and transparency, and personal struggles to make themselves feel good for their sucker followers

@DsrPrivate @RealAranwu Outside of collar, have any estimates on the size of quarter end rebalancing?

@DsrPrivate Perhaps a risk reversal? Sell a bull put spread to finance a bull call spread - can structure it to have minimal vega

Yep, time and degree of energy infrastructure damage are the two key variables (chart 1). Relatively benign now, but has the potential to turn into a tail event. Global oil on water is close to 2025 lows - notably Asia is now back to pre-Russian sanction levels- meaning globally, we'll likely start dipping into on-shore reserves. Expect price going forward to be more unruly barring any resolution. Starting to think an invasion may actually be a bull case. Initial sell-off, but markets begin to price reopening of the strait.

@NestBetter @SowingAlphaSeed @vanillager @finphysnerd Agreed things can get much worse. If we just have the status quo for a while (strait closed), oil probably needs to go much higher to create the demand destruction that would match the lost supply...

Gut is still nervous. Took out a 2% position in $USO last night and sold off some long beta. Current status is 🤷

Iran is an existential front for the American empire. Can’t leave w/o a settlement, would be viewed as a loss left for our allies to clean up. Iran has zero incentive to negotiate, and even if they were open, DC is delusional about the state of US power & our real bargaining position. No clean exit. Agreed, boots on the ground are likely the next move. Ignore the words, track the military asset movements.

Gonna vote for possible boots on Kharg Island and special operating forces in the Kurd / Azeri areas. No conventional ground units in Iran proper. Regime survives, but northwest Iran is carved off to form a new state that is a client of the US. Unclear to me what is the long run future of the parts of Iran that border the gulf but in some form it will be demilitarized. This could take shape in a month but might take longer.

I’m seeing about a 3.50 spread prior to this war. It’s blown out to ~8.00 which seems a fair bit wider than normal. On the front month, now approaching ~$15.00. Have to imagine tier 1 guys like Trafigura are attempting to arbitrage the living hell out of this spread. Makes you wonder if oil export bans are coming. Seems to be the talk of the town.

@RepoTactics @ferderser It's only slightly wider than the usual spead.

The big energy risk was Iran causing extreme damage to neighboring country's infrastructure. This damage would be long term rather than a temporary (and likely over soon) blockade. Iran tried the attack but it pretty much failed to cause that serious of damage. The number of missiles launched was low, and the damage they caused is a lot less than I would have guessed a month ago. Unless there is follow through soon, I'm going to call it. That this conflict is over. That Iran is out of steam. Also, that Iran did this further alienates them from their neighbors.

@orrdavid @ferderser

@orrdavid @ferderser Oil tourist here, but BRNZ2026 is saying something a bit different. Might be more representative of oil scarcity given US’s proximity to oil production.

@DsrPrivate @Jimmyjude13 @DanielSimonyi @NikLentz Good luck!

@orrdavid Looked into it a bit more with new cockroaches rearing their heads, exposure seems limited.

$AX Axos Bank private credit exposure.

@DsrPrivate On the 110 naked put, if we were to blow through that, hit the 109 stop, and IV has expanded considerably, would you delta hedge through ZN futures as opposed to buying back the contract? Trying to think through the worst case scenario there and how to best execute. Thanks!

@busgus @SowingAlphaSeed Sure thing!

@RepoTactics @SowingAlphaSeed That's awesome, I had no idea that existed. Thank you!

LLMs are amazing.

@SowingAlphaSeed @busgus This is a publicly available data set that shows historical S&P Constituents - luckily it's still being updated. github.com/fja05680/sp500

@busgus I really only cared about the relative change in the last week, so I wasn't too worried about the details. Did better than I expected.

@orrdavid Hard to tell, but if spot oil really starts to run, later contracts will begin to embed demand destruction within the price. Probably not there yet

Oil 1 year out is still $70. The oil Market - which could be wrong, of course - is still saying this is not a long term conflict. If it's not long term, equities are trading on vibes not fundamentals.