Robin Hanson
70K posts
Robin Hanson
@robinhanson
Let’s skip witty banter & talk deep Qs. Books: https://t.co/hpZgEm55Ma https://t.co/iFs9C3IuOM Chief Scientist @_futarchy Advisor @MetaDAOProject @butterygg
Fairfax, VA Katılım Temmuz 2007
754 Takip Edilen118.6K Takipçiler
@robinhanson @nic_carter Who would trade against the informed traders, in order to clear the market?
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In case everyon'e missed it, @robinhanson has been advocating on X and on CNBC recently for the position that "maybe insider trading on prediction markets ain't so bad".
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@AgustinLebron3 @nic_carter By limiting informed traders, you increase volume of other traders, but lose the accuracy they would have added.
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@robinhanson @nic_carter Usually they're positively correlated. Why would it be different in this situation?
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@nic_carter @AgustinLebron3 There is a tradeoff between trading volume and price accuracy. Which matters more when?
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@AgustinLebron3 @robinhanson insider trading is bad for prediction markets because noise traders will become discouraged and desert markets they see as structurally unfair
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@robinhanson Fwiw, I got curious and this is what my pipeline output
All models anchored around this paper from Patel and Putniņš, which estimates it around 5%
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Median estimates from 5 LLMs:
~45% of stock price change happens before official announcement
~45% of that change is from insider trading.
So ~20% of firm announcement stock price changes are due to insider trading.
chatgpt.com/share/69c958e4…
gemini.google.com/share/6004eea1…
claude.ai/share/7be60427…
grok.com/share/c2hhcmQt…
chat.deepseek.com/share/8cp1eaip…
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@Rainmaker1973 how do we know kindness will help them with their battles?
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I got 5 LLMs to estimate these figures, give cites: x.com/robinhanson/st…
Robin Hanson@robinhanson
Median estimates from 5 LLMs: ~45% of stock price change happens before official announcement ~45% of that change is from insider trading. So ~20% of firm announcement stock price changes are due to insider trading. chatgpt.com/share/69c958e4… gemini.google.com/share/6004eea1… claude.ai/share/7be60427… grok.com/share/c2hhcmQt… chat.deepseek.com/share/8cp1eaip…
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Some folks asked for a cite re that 20-40% figure: jstor.org/stable/2491062
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On average, ~20-40% of stock price change happens before official firm announcements. Thus insider trading in stocks is rampant; yet our stock markets function fine. To consider re prediction market insider trading.
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@Leishman Should we also make sure to have distinct media apps for serious vs fun media topics?
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Sports betting is not good for society, but it's going to exist and it's fun sometimes.
However, it absolutely does not belong in financial apps where people are building their savings. This unholy marriage of gambling and banking is going to end badly.
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@jack_whitcomb_ For the purpose of this discussion, I'm happy to accept a substantial prior odds.
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@robinhanson Depends on the interpretation of your question. I'd say a world with god is infinitely more likely to have awe and beauty, and a lot more of it, but using awe and beauty as evidence requires some "prior odds for God" that are greater than zero. Not clear why that would be true.
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“route to durable faith in God often runs not through logical proofs or the sciences, but through awe, wonder, and an attunement to the beauty and poetry of the world, natural and otherwise” theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/03/…
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We roughly understand why awe and beauty would existand feel compelling in a world without God. theseedsofscience.pub/p/we-see-the-s…
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And why exactly is a world with awe and beauty more likely to have a God?
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I've reviewed public criticism of this stuff since last August and, together with this recent confirmation, I now estimate >80% chance of many >10cm artificial flat reflecting surfaces in Earth orbit pre-Sputnik.
Beatriz Villarroel@DrBeaVillarroel
What a lovely surprise this morning! ☀️Independent detections of similar transients in European plate archives — exactly the kind of cross-validation this field needs. So it’s not just Palomar anymore. The study was carried out by a retired NASA scientist. This is how a signal begins to emerge from the noise. arxiv.org/pdf/2603.20407
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@jonathanpassey The court has distinguished degrees of closeness to the ideal protected speech. So we should see such degrees here too.
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@robinhanson Your argument extends to all markets and prices. Should market prices be protected as speech? Price gouging ought to be protected speech under the first amendment?
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My 5min CNN segment today on prediction markets: cnn.com/2026/03/28/us/…
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Compared to plane seats, every train and car seat is first class.
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@PlastiqSoldier There's a whole field of study of cultural evolution. Not easily summarized in an X post.
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@robinhanson So, what's your argument that culture change happens on it own and not largely due to 1/2/3. And how is 3 separate from culture change?
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I used to love sf, for big civ-scale stories. But now I realize that sf sees change as mainly driven by (1) new tech, (2) war & political conflict, & (3) moral fervor. Culture changes are due to these. SF just doesn't see culture as changing internally, causing other stuff.
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@WolfAchak @davidyjeong @MetaDAOProject @P2Pdotme I've been talking about prediction markets in general a lot over the last few months. I know nothing about @P2Pdotme or recent activity there.
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seems like @MetaDAOProject doubled down and justify supporting @P2Pdotme by saying there is rampant insider trading everywhere, so it’s ok for teams to trade against retail with MNPI
regardless, having worked in equities trading for 7 years, i can tell you this stat is false
Robin Hanson@robinhanson
On average, ~20-40% of stock price change happens before official firm announcements. Thus insider trading in stocks is rampant; yet our stock markets function fine. To consider re prediction market insider trading.
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Shannon@weathershan
If someone told me a year ago that I’d be here, with these guys on stage, I’d say they’re out of their minds and turn back to my trading desk. Grateful for the opportunity to moderate this panel, and work alongside the team at Kalshi for (almost) a year. More importantly, I’m grateful that I get to interact with our traders every single day. I’m so proud of what we do, but I would be nothing without all of you. You truly are the people behind the markets. Thank you 💚🫶 @PredMTrader @TheGrandeTop10 @Domahhhh @benwfreeman1
ZXX
Heard a panel of 4 star @Kalshi traders, who were detail-oriented, young, nerdy, & rational, and thought "I'm glad to have contributed in my small way to these folks rising in status, & finding meaning in their lives."
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"Population density predicts falling fertility in 174 countries over 7 decades. Holds after controlling for GDP, education, contraception, religion, etc."
Igor Grossmann, PhD @igi.bsky.social@psywisdom
5/ → Gender equality gains follow declines in infectious disease, with a 15-25 year lag. → Population density predicts falling fertility in 174 countries over 7 decades. Holds after controlling for GDP, education, contraception, religion, etc.
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@dcolascione But we don't see the causes of culture change there.
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@robinhanson Another example is Haldeman's Forever War, which involves the protagonist experiencing repeated culture shocks as he samples earth culture between long episodes of relativistic travel. The random walk of moral (and sexual) mores is a major theme.
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