3 Imminent $IREN Catalysts
Not many companies have as much going for them right now as $IREN does.
While management has been relatively quiet since the last earnings call, I believe we're standing right before a wave of major, thesis defining announcements.
1) Australia Expansion
Given that Australia is where $IREN was incorporated, one might expect the company to already be operational there. Yet as of today, Australia remains merely the home of its HQ.
That will likely change very soon...
Just a couple of months ago, $IREN announced a sponsorship of the Sydney Swans, a prominent AFL team. As an isolated event, I wouldn't have thought much of it. The company's CEO is an Australian Football coach himself, so it could have simply been management paying homage to the company's roots.
However, this sponsorship was accompanied by a sweeping marketing campaign across Australia.
$IREN has seemingly gone all out on visual ad spend, plastering full trams with the company's logo and tagline across multiple Australian states, while also putting up new billboards outside Sydney's airport and other notables places.
Knowing how cost disciplined management is, I seriously doubt they're burning all this money on nothing. I strongly believe the company is close to unveiling a major expansion into Australia.
Currently, there are rumors that $IREN has at least two new data center sites lined up: one in South Australia, and one in New South Wales.
With how aggressive the regional ad spend has been, I'd expect any new site announcement to be accompanied by large-scale customer contracts.
If I had to speculate on who $IREN's first major customer in Australia might be, I'd wager on Anthropic, who recently announced plans to open an office in Sydney.
2) Sweetwater 1 Energization + Deal
$IREN is likely just days or weeks away from energizing its largest site to date; the massive 1.4 GW Sweetwater 1 campus.
With data center projects across the industry missing delivery timelines, largely due to an inability to secure reliable power, Sweetwater 1 stands out as a true unicorn.
Having this much grid connected power concentrated at a single site is virtually unheard of, and positions Sweetwater as one of the most valuable assets in the sector.
Successful energization will undoubtedly elevate $IREN's standing among operators industry wide, putting its execution capabilities on full display while competitors face severe delays and outright project cancellations.
Management is also aggressively hiring for the Sweetwater campus, including night shift positions, a strong signal that the company is gearing up to develop new data centers at rapid speed around the clock, 24/7.
This tells me we're likely nearing the signing of a new large-scale anchor client deal, possibly with another hyperscaler or frontier AI lab.
My expectation is that the first tranche of the Sweetwater build-out will be designed entirely for liquid-cooled Rubins, with commissioning likely sometime in H1 2027.
3) Childress Expansion
While Sweetwater is currently getting all the attention, we shouldn't overlook $IREN's first Texas campus; the 750 MW large Childress site.
So far, $IREN has contracted 40% of the site's total capacity to Microsoft, 300 MW gross across 4 tranches (Horizon 1 to 4).
That leaves 450 MW still up for grabs.
With management clearly signaling its intention to fully convert the remainder of Childress into an air-cooled AI cloud campus, the runway potential remains enormous.
Over the coming weeks, I'm expecting one of two things: either $IREN announces a new multi-hundred MW cloud contract for Childress, or management lays out a concrete plan to convert the remaining 450 MW into a large-scale cloud hub for multiple enterprise clients.
Either way, the conversion of Childress's remaining capacity is likely to begin very soon.
As with Sweetwater, the company is also actively hiring night shift HSE advisors for Childress construction, once again signaling an intent to scale development rapidly (night shift = 24/7 construction).
On a side note, I'm also expecting the successful delivery of Horizon 1 this quarter to act as a meaningful catalyst for the company's competitive standing in the market.
General Thoughts
While I've covered each of these topics in depth in previous Substack reports, I believe the time has now come for this wave of catalysts to materialize.
It's also worth pointing out that most Wall Street analysts fail to see around the corner when it comes to $IREN's cloud expansion. For the most part, they simply react to what's directly in front of them.
That means $IREN is one of the rare stocks where retail investors can front run institutional capital, getting positioned before the catalysts materialize and before Wall Street prices them in accordingly.
The irony is that over the past few weeks, retail has been doing the exact opposite: panic selling right before what I expect to be a major re-rate of the stock.
Earlier this month I also heard many investors claim that $IREN couldn't move up before new large-scale deals or other catalysts materialized…
That's a very dangerous way to think.
Markets are inherently illogical. Trying to rationalize them is a mistake not only retail investors, but institutional ones too tend to make.
Last year, $IREN's share price increased by over 1,000% from its April lows, purely on the expectation of a deal being close. If you'd waited for the actual announcement, you would have entered around $70…
In any case, with these 3 major catalysts in front of us, I'm very much looking forward to the weeks ahead and especially to the Q1 earnings call.
NFA, but I wouldn't be surprised if the stock cracks $100 in May.
Images S/O: @FransBakker9812, @tempocap2
@cmsinvests This is exactly what my 22 yo son does. VOO and SCHG and he adds at minimum monthly. He started with zero. He has over 30k plus a 6 month emergency fund in cash. I owed that much at his age lol
Sometimes I feel like putting my entire $30,000 portfolio into $VOO and just let it ride for the next 40 years.
I’m currently 18, would this be a good idea?
@moninvestor@exploringwizard What are your plans for these? I’ve been in COPX. Been watching UAMY. Should’ve pulled the trigger a few weeks ago. Looking for pullback.
@BlackPantherCap I’m in 5. Only a couple NBIS bc igot on at the near high. After watching it go up from 100 lol. Gonna start in on OUST. I wish I had the discipline to pare my portfolio. Beginners mistake.
One thing has become clear to me lately:
We are so EARLY in this build out.
$IREN will be a $200 stock someday.
$NBIS will be a $400 stock someday.
$CIFR will be a $100 stock someday.
$AAOI will be a $400 stock someday.
$RKLB will be a $700 stock someday.
$HIMS will be a $400 stock someday.
$OUST will be a $150 stock someday.
$AMPX will be a $80 stock someday.
$ONDS will be a $80 stock someday.
$KRKNF will be a $70 stock someday.
That’s my belief.
The easy part is conviction.
The hard part is waiting.
-BP
Please note: This is my personal opinion and belief. This is not financial advice.
Added $HIMS to my portfolio today.
Smashed my workout. Hit 10h shift. 5 one-to-ones. They were happy.
Past week on the market: 2 months salary.
Kissed wifey goodnight. 2 beers in now.
Life is great.
I see a lot of smart investors looking into $OUST now. Makes me happy since I took a position recently, and up 18% now.
Status in portfolio this week:
$NBIS up 15%
$IREN up 29%
$CIFR up 18% (I sniff news….)
$RKLB up 27%
$AAOI up 19%
$OUST UP 21%
$ONDS up 9%
$PNG.V up 4%
$HIMS up 45% (Added today.)
-BP
Please note: this is not financial advice.
This is actually disgusting…
Over the course of a single year $SNDK is up over 2,700% on share price alone. Did anybody buy this a year out and still holding today??
$OUST Straight up Outser fits my investing philosphy:
I am thematic growth investor with a taste for founder-led, pre-profit disruptors riding secular waves.
$OUST fits this for sure.
Only thing that will take me a lot of time is understanding Lidar, their competitors & their moat(IPs they have)
Physical AI and robotics will be insane over the next 10 years and $OUST will help in that buildout, that I am confident in.
I’ve finally pulled the trigger on a new position that I think is going to be a cornerstone of my holdings for the next decade.
I’m officially long $OUST (Ouster, Inc.).
If you’ve been following my "long-term trilogy"; $ONDS, $KRKNF, and $AMPX then you know my vibe.
I’m looking for companies that aren't just "tech stocks," but the actual backbone of the next industrial revolution.
I’ve added more to those three recently, and $OUST is joining them as a permanent fixture in the long-term bucket.
Here is the lowdown on why I’m so high on this one.
One of my favorite Peter Lynch rules is the "Mall Walk" test. Basically, if you can see a company’s products working in the real world, you’re onto something. With $OUST, it’s everywhere if you look:
Warehouse tech: Those autonomous forklifts and robots moving boxes? That’s often Ouster’s 3D vision.
Smart Cities: Ever see those sensor pods on traffic lights? They’re replacing those old-school wires in the asphalt to make intersections safer.
Security: High-end perimeter sensors that don't freak out every time a cat walks by? That’s Ouster’s "Gemini" software at work.
We talk a lot about AI in the digital sense (like ChatGPT), but "Physical AI" is where things get real. Machines need to "see" and "think" in 3D to move through our world. Ouster is the leader in Digital LiDAR.
While their competitors are mostly using "analog" tech (think vacuum tubes; clunky and expensive), Ouster has shrunk the tech onto two simple chips. It’s the same shift we saw from film cameras to digital. It’s cheaper, it’s smaller, and it scales way better.
When I look at who is actually using this tech, it’s a "who’s who" of heavy hitters. We aren't talking about speculative startups; we’re talking about +850 customers including:
> Retail/Logistics: $AMZN & $SERV
> Industrial Giants: $DE (John Deere)
> Government: NASA, US Army, US Navy, @anduriltech
If the Army and NASA trust your "eyes" to guide their hardware, you’ve probably got the best tech on the block.
Right now, the TAM is solid, $OUST sit on around 4% of the market, but we’re only scratching the surface of a +20% CAGR in the immediate sensing market. However, the future potential TAM is where the "tenbagger" potential lives. As we move toward fully autonomous shipping, port automation, and mass-market vehicle safety, the ceiling for LiDAR basically disappears.
If you look at the chart, $OUST has been beaten up lately. It’s down about 35% over the last six months.
The whole market is jittery about interest rates and oil.
They had a huge Q4, but some of it was a one-time royalty check. The "smart money" used that as an excuse to exit, but the actual product sales are still growing like crazy (shipped 25k+ units last year).
The company is debt-free with over $210M in cash. In Lynch terms: a company that has no debt can’t go bankrupt. They have a 7-year runway to just keep innovating even if the economy stays weird.
Final Thoughts
I’m treating $OUST just like my positions in $ONDS, $KRKNF, and $AMPX. This is a conviction play.
This case requires patience. It won’t go to the moon tomorrow. But with their tech advantage and customer base, I truly believe $OUST is a potential tenbagger over the next 5 to 10 years.
Stay patient, stay long.
-BP
Please note: This is not financial advice.
@YodaStockInvest Not taking profit is hard
almost 2k down on Sofi but last year it hit my average of 25 3-4 times from 28/29/30
I'd have been hitting 1.5-2k profit 3/4 times trading it
For me, its easy to buy dips, but hard to not touch buttons when my portfolio is up 20k in a short time.
What is harder for you? Buying dips or not taking profit?
@dustinacampbell@YodaStockInvest I watched a ton of my profits evaporate. So now trying to get better about taking profits. But then I sell SNDK and it goes up another $200 lol of course!
Taking profit because in my head I’m always thinking this thing is going higher. I bought $ASTS at $3.80 and so many times I’ve wanted to sell and I didn’t. But then I’ve had others I’m up 200% and do the same thing and now I’m in the red. I know you’re supposed to trim but I like to do things big.
@Leo_Traydes I’m down $200,000 from ATH still. Holding $BMNR, $IBIT mostly. ATH for those would easily put me at ATH… but markets will be much higher before crypto comes anywhere close to ATH again.