Sam Freedman

New election briefing just out A bumper edition of seat previews covering Hampshire and Kent. Previously almost entirely blue. Not this time. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/sou…

Back on the other account again. Join me there at @samfr....

I mean about what it would mean for the make up of the Tory party, not whether it will happen.

Going to write a proper piece on this in a few weeks but fwiw I don't think this is true (about the 75 MPs).

This, is as always, good from @Samfr, we don’t always agree on stuff, but on the tory southern discomfort we do fwiw I think, see my thread on Kent seats, he is still slightly behind on a couple of seats but read his substack and make your own mind up

@rcolvile Wonder if they're sending ones with the Tories ahead (2019 result) to Labour voters.

Leaving aside the source of the data, my first reaction on looking at this wouldn’t be gosh yes what a neck-and-neck race.

@dan_grey Because things like creativity and critical thinking are domain specific attributes not generic skills. You can be a brilliant writer and terrible painter or a brilliant scientist who can't understand politics at all.

@Samfrspare For the benefit of us plebs, why is it "guff"?

How far do we have to get through the 21st century before the "21st century skills" guff stops? (This is from the Lib Dem manifesto).

@EdConwaySky Just left out the decimal place last time...

Weird. Back in 2019 the LibDems said they were committed to net zero by 2045 and they would spend £86bn to achieve it. Today the LibDems said they were committed to net zero by 2045 and they would spend £8.4bn to achieve it. 🤔

@Chelseachemist1 That was the opening to my post today - there just seems an inability to adjust to what's unfolding.

@Samfrspare Has anyone mentally dealt with the idea that the polls might just be right? I mean leads like this give you silly seat numbers but there really doesn’t appear to be much if any closing and postal voting starts like next week

Without their house adjustments this would be: Labour 43% Con 22% Reform 14% LD 10% Green 5% Similar to average.

JLP show same movement to Reform as others. This is the first fully post D-Day poll and doesn't show too big a drop for the Tories (though is the methodology that helps them most and they're on 24%).

Sam's Newsletter is good value normally. However, the bumper content during this election means the bang for your buck is so ludicrous, they're likely to be critiqued by the IFS.

Apropos of nothing, which pollsters initially prompt for Reform UK? Summary of how many parties are included in each pollster's initial voting intention prompt below.

Sunak may have left the D-Day event early but at least he thinks the right side won.

Sunak was visiting Horsham to campaign today Conservative majority 21,127 It’s 68th on the Lib Dem target list

@gj4man Lol - only if you have time of course...

@Samfrspare Sadly my employer thinks I might like to do some actual work this afternoon! Let me have a play this evening...

New election briefing just out A bumper edition of seat previews covering Hampshire and Kent. Previously almost entirely blue. Not this time. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/sou…

@gj4man Ooh this is great - yes please!

@Samfrspare I have been playing around with something this morning (might be good for work at some point is my excuse...) Any use? I might try to extend / automate it if it is...

Have they just not noticed Scotland did this and it didn't work? Or do they not care?

Leaving the EU in the first place didn't have high salience for the general public. It was kept alive as an issue by a deeply committed group of campaigners with a decent base in Parliament.

Anyway who thinks Brexit is just going to disappear as an issue after the election isn't paying attention. It may not have high salience any more for the general public but it does for people who are engaged in politics.