Scott Thomas

@wxkylegillett Who can I talk to about wiping this from my memory

I have found a new all time favorite video on the internet:

Even though the weather wasn’t very cooperative for storm chasing over the last week, hitting the road was the perfect chance for a reset after a busy month or two; with plenty of good photo opportunities.

@dubsinfive That line just hits so hard

@AriWeather @CkWeather @amarkowitzWX One thing I will note is that sirens is not an NWS issue. That’s local authorities jurisdiction and where that needs to be addressed (though that is only a small piece of what you’re talking about)

I strongly disagree. The long term cumulative downside to high FAR is massive.. it's just common sense - "we get tornado warnings all the time, nothing ever happens." Not that it's a great mind set but with the FAR that high I don't blame them one bit. Of course, there's nuance.. obviously it''s not a perfect science. Nobody expects 0% FAR but I think we can do better than 75%. We've made advancements in communicating different threat levels (confirmed vs radar). We have more eyes on the storms.. but theres a lot of stuff still just plain behind the times. Like when sirens go off for an entire county when only a tiny corner of it is in the polygon I understand not wanting to miss one as a forecaster, but it's not about you.. it's about how seriously the general public takes serious threats in the long term. I don't think blanket-TOR-warning a QLCS with a few inflow notches just in case an EF-0 spins up for 3 minutes is good practice if you expect all the people in that polygon take shelter and take TORs seriously in the long term. I think forecasters need to ditch the fear of a "missed event" because it's the stronger tornadoes that kill the vast majority of people.. we can do better imo. I'm open minded to opposing opinions btw, all ears but this is what my experience has shown

Learned about this last month at the Mississippi State Severe Storms Symposium and was pretty shocked. Crazy that the false alarm rate for tornadoes is around 75% and has not improved much with technology! Curious how we fix this without sacrificing POD. Better safe than sorry?

@dubsinfive I will neither (cries in great lakes lol)

@wxkylegillett I am sure you are killing it! You've got this.

Finals szn as a graduate student: 1 GRL-style paper, 1 NSF-style proposal, 2 AMS-style presentations, and a meso exam. Plus instructor-of-record duties (giving the last two lectures, giving and grading a final exam). Plus a conference presentation Friday. good times!

@wxkylegillett @CRyanMauk Lucky… 4.99 here in the Midwest

@CRyanMauk we were 4.09 in Grand Forks yesterday too

Hibbing, Minnesota.

@wxsteven I was on that storm complex at the time of this report. It was way too high based to have a funnel cloud.

Somehow I doubt that but okay, sure bro.

@MatthewCappucci I'm jealous you got to meet him! He is definitely one of our best and both his knowledge and kindness are unmatched.

The man — the myth — the Broyles. This was an absolute career highlight and an amazing privilege; a few weeks ago, I had the opportunity to interview Chris via Zoom. He emailed me after and offered a one-on-one tutorial of his research and novel forecasting techniques. The offer was beyond humbling. Today, I got to sit down with him for two hours and learn about his team’s groundbreaking research surrounding jet streak translation speeds and a variety of other factors. To say I learned a LOT would be an understatement. An equally-skilled teacher as forecaster. Many of you know Broyles from some famed tornado outlooks — like in 2012, when he presciently issued a day-two high risk despite models showing no rainfall. The next day, swarms of strong to violent tornadoes materialized exactly where he had anticipated. He proved correct, and the top-notch analysis and gut instinct earned him a congressional silver medal. It was amazing to see how much technical in-the-weeds meteorology goes into each of his upper-echelons forecasts, as well as the impressive and promising verification statistics of some of the agency’s more recently-created tools. Chris’s OMEGA research rose to prominence following a “surprise” high risk outlook on April 2, 2025. A lot of meteorologists, including myself, were caught off guard — we didn’t see it coming, and convective-allowing (thunderstorm-simulating) models were tepid. By 4 p.m., a string of violent tornado supercells were traversing the high risk area through northeastern Arkansas exactly where Chris had drawn it. The brazen forecast, based on years of research, verified — and ultimately saved lives. Chris was exceptionally kind in answering all my questions thoughtfully and comprehensively. I didn’t realize until after that this was all on his own time — his shift hadn’t even started yet. For someone at his level to give an early-career professional two hours just for the sake of teaching speaks volumes about his character. @NWSSPC has some phenomenal minds — and people.

@dubsinfive OMG… I’m so using that one

@NoahKahan This album really gets you feeling… hits close to home.

Ok it’s been a week and im bored in the airport give me your top 3 lyrics

@EverythingWX Very interesting! I suspected GWAC when I saw the environment so makes total sense. That would be some of the stronger GWAC I’ve ever heard of measured.

There will be a lot to research with this event! Post frontal storms with 120 mph winds and a tornado. Gravity wave associated convection (GWAC) was likely the culprit.

@WxScholl @gabbyrose_wx @GabbyRose3122 Awesome! I did a few days ago when our chase busted… it’s such a neat city

Didn’t chase a storm today, might be going through withdrawls already. At least we got to explore a little bit of San Antonio though!

Had to see what the hype is about as I head north for tomorrows chase…

@dubsinfive Cries in Chasecation after starting near Dallas 🥲. Today was thankfully already planned as a travel day

@stormchaser0026 100%... WDTD mainly trains on VROT, and mentions of things like ZDR/KDP are a brief WOC Severe Module, with no in person exercise like RAC. RAC doesn't drill on QLCS tornadoes either. VROT is a great starter point but hands on training could use expansion.

Finally, let's be real for a second, training irregularities do exist across the NWS. While everyone gets the same basic set of training, some offices train more on these techniques, while others may not be subject to it as much if at all.

Firstly, we need to stop assuming every couplet or area of rotation is going to produce a tornado. We are beyond just analyzing V and SRV. There are other radar analysis techniques that have shown better skill in leading to tornadogenesis than those features.

@stormchaser0026 Absolutely... and I found it helps with leadtime for me as well. A great tool for triage.

While V and SRV are still useful, analysis of ZDR and how it relates to KDP and their separation for supercells and various QLCS signatures have proven skill for tornadogenesis or non tornadogenesis over older analysis techniques. This includes reductions in FAR.

@WickyDubs2 You're welcome to send it over to me!

Are any NWS employees available to critique resumes 📝✍🏻

@madelynn_wx Last person I’d want as a chase partner is someone drinking… That’s a yikes

concerning.