Aitor-Sempiterno Investments

Exposure by theme: Digitalization $AMZN $MELI $MA ~25% Attention Span $NTDOY $META ~20% VMS $CSU $TOI 14% Physical Assets $BN $LB 12% Healthcare $MEDP $ERF $CBAV ~10% Roll-ups $TVK $TEA.AX ~7.5% Luxury $RMS $WOSG 6% Farming $DE ~5%

$DE -See & Spray is expanding successfully, covering a larger area and achieving herbicide savings of between 50% and 60% -Precision Essentials has an overall renewal rate of around 70% and over 90% among long-standing customers Higher recurring revenue thanks to the tech stack

Interesting graphic from the book Valuation by McKinsey. It explains why companies such as Netflix or UBER have created a lot of value. Worth saying that is incredible difficult to spot those companies early.

@cashflow_king94 @GuthixMoney Apologies for some replies disrespecting you. My opinion is that momentum investing sounds good in a bull market but it will hurt dramatically eventually. Choosing the right timing to buy/sell is impossible to control.

@GuthixMoney @Sempiterno_Inv Happens when X runs with a post mate, probably once a week - even over the most ridiculous things.

Fintwit during bull years is hilarious

@Value_Europe La poca paciencia que hay hoy en día es increíble 🫣. Con $WOSG mereció la pena esperar :)

@Sempiterno_Inv selling in the worst time

@parsua76 Asi me imagino los que invierten solamente en lo que sube este año

@Sempiterno_Inv 😂😂😂 "This is probably the hardest lesson in investing."... mucho me temo que cuando la música deje de sonar echará de menos esas $MA

Ayer en la JP Morgan Tech Conference. MasterCard $MA El consumo sigue fuerte. Siguen ampliando el moat de la red de pagos mientras preparan las próximas capas de crecimiento estructural. La directiva repitió varias veces que todavía no están viendo señales reales de deterioro del consumidor: • desempleo global cerca de mínimos, • salarios creciendo, • efecto riqueza por mercados fuertes. Y con eso mantienen guidance en el “high end of low double digits”, esperando que el mayor impacto macro quede concentrado en Q2 antes de una reaceleración clara hacia H2. ~40% de los ingresos ya provienen de servicios. VASS no es una diversificación fuera del core. Aproximadamente el 60% sigue ligado directamente al crecimiento del network. Mastercard está monetizando varias veces la misma transacción: • payment rails, • fraude, • tokenización, • autenticación, • consulting, • threat intelligence. Y pese al aumento de rebates e incentives, el net revenue yield sigue subiendo. Están monetizando mejor cada dólar de volumen aunque aparentemente “paguen más” para captar clientes. Añadieron explícitamente dos nuevos pilares estratégicos: • stablecoins/digital assets, • agentic commerce. Lo presentan como una extensión natural del modelo histórico: seguir siendo la infraestructura crítica independientemente de cómo cambie la interfaz del comercio. Mastercard no quiere “ganar” la guerra de agentes IA. Quiere seguir siendo la capa de confianza, autenticación y pagos por debajo de cualquier agente o plataforma. De hecho, creen que los agentes podrían incluso aumentar el número total de transacciones: • más fragmentación entre merchants, • más pagos, • más necesidad de tokenización y antifraude. Paradójicamente, la IA podría terminar acelerando todavía más la monetización del network. Con stablecoins, el enfoque es parecido al de Visa: no apostar por un ganador concreto, sino convertirse en la capa interoperable entre múltiples activos digitales y depósitos tokenizados. Y aquí BVNK puede ser bastante importante: • enviar, • recibir, • almacenar, • convertir activos digitales. El modelo económico sigue siendo el mismo de siempre: monetizar volumen procesado vía basis points. La frase final del management probablemente resume toda la tesis: “healthy level of paranoia”. No parecen una compañía dormida defendiendo un monopolio maduro. Precisamente, por dominar la infraestructura actual, tienen que invertir agresivamente en las próximas capas del sistema financiero antes de que sean realmente relevantes.

@ID_Research_ Al final la mayoría de usuarios serán casuales, no? Yo soy escéptico que en 5 años la creación de agentes etc por parte del retail sea una actividad en masa

Llevo todo el día leyendo que Google la rompió ayer y sinceramente no lo veo. Si trabajas con IA en serio, Claude y GPT siguen ganando en casi todo. Lo único que destaca es Omni en vídeo que sí es brutal. Eso sí, si eres usuario casual, Gemini PRO + YT Premium Lite por el mismo precio es difícil de rechazar.

@AccionEAFI Por cierto Javier, si no entendí mal su guidance, esperan 18% crecimiento top line y unos 450m GBP de EBIT. Al precio actual cotiza aproximadamente 25x NOPAT (20% tax rate). Tengo la sensación de que me pierdo algo.. expandir márgenes del 18 al 25% en 1 año no tiene sentido

@Sempiterno_Inv 3 beat&raise consecutivos. Y mira el ritmo de adquisiciones, que el orgánico se ralentizará, pero parece claro que van a seguir componiendo a tasas muy saludables. Increíble, la verdad. Let your winners run...!

Pero lo de esta gente, qué es? 😳 $DPLM #DPLM

@j_enz Don't push yourself that much! I did not buy it either sadly. Also, all companies give an attractive entry point sooner or later!

@Sempiterno_Inv I feel so stupid for not pulling the trigger on this amazing business. Looking for attractive entries but doubt I'll ever get one :(

Johhny is creating a lot of value under the radar $DPLM

gonna update this - Modaxo and Andromeda both Operating Groups now $CSU.TO

A MUST-read interview with a Siemens employee explaining just how high demand is for energy equipment right now because of AI: 1. The whole situation is shocking even for people who have been in the business for 40 years. They are getting orders that are double the size of what their entire factory can produce in a year. 2. Demand is so high in the last 5-8 months that they don't need to convince or send any analysis (such as CO2 emissions, etc.) to clients because they just want the equipment, because there's so much backlog that they just want to catch the order. 3. Decisions are being made very quickly by clients; the backlog for some of the energy equipment companies is 5-6 years. For transformers, the situation is even more difficult. 4. He mentions that right now, data center builders do not care about sustainability; they just want power at any expense, reliable power. They say they will think about sustainability later. 5. The orders have gone from previous 20-30 MW orders to now 200-500 MW units. Customers have previously wanted to get equipment from different OEMs, but now they prefer an integrated standardized solution. 6. An interesting dynamic is that even though the data center requires 100 MW, the builders are buying N+1 units of gas turbines (so more than just for 100 MW) as backups, as well as having more energy capacity, as they believe they will continue to grow that data center. 7. He does believe there is some double booking going on on transformers and switchgears because of extra-long lead times. 8. Everyone is trying to reduce PUE, and water use effectiveness, but even after improving, they just use the same power to run more compute. 9. The problem is also liquid cooling, as it is expensive, and water availability in many regions is a problem. 10. Margins on equipment in the sector have gone from 4-6%, where they were 2-3 years ago, to 20-23% and in some cases even 40%. The data center builders know the margins are high, but they are fine with it because they just want to get it. found on @AlphaSenseInc

Salvo que Europa gaste 200 trillones no veo forma de competir. Ese toro ya pasó como ha dicho @Recuenco en varias ocasiones. Europa deberia competir en otros frentes dentro de la IA pero no en construir capacidad de computación IMO.

@olensrud A company which do buybacks regardless valuation = cash back to shareholder Companies which do buybacks when price is attractive = an investment This is my framework😁🙂

Buybacks are

After thinking it a bit more I see better option to invest into an ETF of Aerospace and another of Physical Assets for now. I like Semis and Defense too but I see too much hype around those industries nowadays. I'm surprised about bad returns from Cibersecurity ETF too.

My $CSU.TO raw notes from this morning's AGM: - Opened with a video showing year-by-year acquisitions across operating groups. Seeing gross/recurring revenue alongside capital deployed was impressive with over 1,300 acquisitions during their 30 year run. - Core message remained consistent: - Decentralization - Decisions pushed to business units - Small teams - Buy-and-hold forever mindset - No PE-style flipping - Scale highlights: - 69K employees - 1,500+ business units - 1,300+ acquisitions - 100+ countries - 150+ vertical markets - Conventional org charts are NOT how CSI operates - HQ exists to coach, not control - Nyland (Lumine) mentioned speaking with their telecom customers about potential acquisition opportunities that improve service to end customers - Concentrating talent within verticals is a major edge. Deep knowledge in transportation with Bill Delaney (CEO of Modaxo, part of Volaris) runs transportation software services for 3,000+ cities and governments - Mark Miller's AI comment: - “It’s about what you actually do, not what you say you’re going to do” - Short-term leaders focus on what they say, not execution - Vertical markets require deep industry expertise, even in the AI era - Founder who spoke on a panel sold to CSI in 2018 is now fully out of that business and running an academic vertical inside completely outside of the operating unit he sold to - Interesting pattern: founders often stay within Constellation in new leadership roles years later - Agentic coding is helping them build more software faster - Some companies are fully rebuilding and modernizing products from scratch — previously inconceivable pre-agentic coding - CSI is hosting many AI hackathons to: - Produce new products - Rebuild outdated systems - Modernize software untouched for decades - Potential upside: - Longer product life cycles - Lower churn - CSI increasingly investing in “PEMS” in other words taking stakes in other public software companies. Miller sees value in public markets and mentioned on the earnings call last week that private valuations haven't moved while publics get smoked. - PEMS = Permanent Engaged Minority Shareholders - Holding long term, not trading the equities - Brief mention of Mark Leonard at the start, then not referenced again... Company remains very private about his health - Mark Miller: - “We really haven’t seen any AI-related attrition of customers” - Software businesses are not just products, they are Companies: - Support matters - Sales matters - Services matter - Customers don’t ask for AI. Customers ask for solutions. If AI improves the solution, great

The recent interview with Alex Wang was very interesting, and I think provides some illumination on $META's AI strategy. Wang noted that there are two things that go in to successful AI products: compute and distribution. $META has a vast amount of BOTH. On compute, we all know how much the company is spending to build out data centers. That level of working capital isn't easy to come by for most companies. But, what Wang was clear on is $META is able to allocate more compute per engineer than other firms. This is partly because of how much compute $META has, and partly because of how lean, talented and efficient their AI team is. This level of efficiency is what allowed them to essentially start from scratch to build a competitive model (Muse Spark) in around a year. Secondly is distribution. $META has around $3.5B daily active users. This is an unparalleled level of distribution. Many of these users aren't just average consumers, but businesses that run on $META. This presents a clear opportunity for $META to provide AI products that work with these businesses in their native environment. That's an edge other companies don't necessarily have. The point is, $META could be a lot more formidable than people realize in the AI race, and Wang's breakdown makes that even more clear.

😵 Pues unas pocas @SpaceX más a la cartera... 🥳 (y de paso, algunas @Figure_robot, por aquello de diversificar el risk/reward de @Tesla_Optimus) Good job Mr. Flatt 👏🏽 $BN