ShadowPro
5.9K posts





@TheCartoonLoon That's not even close to accurate.



Accurate cartoon. In my polling, almost 6% of people said they picked the wrong button when they were prompted about it. Assume the global error rate is higher and kids' responses are random, and easily 1-in-6 to 1-in-5 hit blue by mistake. So, if red wins, society is ruined.

Michael Jordanat the CME

I want airline travel to be affordable. Just because I want that to be the case doesn’t mean it’s a viable business model under current conditions. And don’t shout “fuel prices”. Inflation adjusted they are extremely average. One of three things will settle it.. 1) A free market will voluntarily explore different technologies or efficiencies to help it become more affordable. 2) the government will subsidize or 3) air travel goes back to being unaffordable for the poor( as it was for 80% of the time since its advent. It’s an interesting discussion but it can’t be made if you start with the given of “air travel should be affordable to all”…it’s means nothing..like why? Cuz we want it to be? That’s not really an economic premise..




"I haven't seen a real new idea in trading in at least 15 years." Tom Costello (@tcoste110) ran money at Tudor, Moore Capital, and Caxton. Built one of the first NLP-driven equity systems in 2003. 20 years managing capital, never had a down year. "Comparing what a retail trader does to what a quantitative hedge fund does is like comparing driving a bus on the New Jersey Turnpike to winning a Formula One race." We cover: - His hot take: no genuinely new trading idea in 15 years — only better people doing the same things faster - Why everyone in quant finance is a genius — and why that makes you ordinary, not special - Crypto is "super smart guys cosplaying at finance" — built for retail, which is exactly why it's the easiest money in finance right now - Why AGI won't beat the hedge fund industry — all the readily-capturable alpha is already captured - The status trap: why the path that made Paul Tudor Jones a billionaire won't work for the kid trying to copy it in 2026 - His friend the investment banker who'd quit it all to run a 10-employee ambulance supply company worth $150M - Why excitement is "wildly overbid" in finance — and why wanting an exciting trading job is itself a disqualifier - The most honest end of the financial industry — and why the media has it exactly backwards Thanks so much to Tom for coming on Odds on Open! Highlights: 00:00 Intro 01:18 Building institutional credibility for early-stage managers 03:01 The Pareto distribution of hedge fund returns 04:25 Applying the Unified Field Theory of Finance to fair value 08:14 Trading against human incentives in a deterministic market 13:54 Why allocators don’t steal alpha from prospective PMs 25:16 Evaluating career edge in quantitative finance for 2026 30:48 Paul Tudor Jones and the art of game selection 33:42 Analyzing the economic viability of starting a new fund 35:16 Identifying common retail pitfalls: Mean reversion and arbitrage 38:55 Why there hasn't been a new trading idea in 15 years 50:33 Managing tail risk: Physics vs. deterministic financial distributions 59:10 Career pathing for PMs after a fund blow-up 1:07:53 SBF and FTX: Credibility vs. the "Founder-Genius" archetype 1:13:44 Establishing proof-of-concept through audited multi-year returns




















