Shaf
9.3K posts
The sixth step, and the one that outlasts everything else about this war. America's magazine depth is in crisis. Epic Fury hit an arsenal already hollowed out by choices made with full knowledge of the consequences. INDOPACOM commander Adm. Paparo warned in November 2024 that aid to Ukraine and Israel was straining Pacific stockpiles. Sullivan admitted the U.S. was "underequipped for the task at hand." CSIS flagged the production shortfall years earlier. The Biden administration heard all of it and submitted an FY25 budget requesting zero new Tomahawks and cutting SM-3 Block IB from 153 to zero. The Trump administration moved before the war started. Framework agreements to quadruple THAAD, triple PAC-3, push Tomahawk to 1,000 annually. Congress front-loaded $6.3 billion for critical munitions and $500 million for solid rocket motor expansion. The Pentagon submitted a $50 billion emergency supplemental. Right shortfalls, right direction. But Tomahawk expansion agreements signed in February will not produce added capacity until 2027 or 2028, and new solid rocket motor suppliers take 18 to 24 months to qualify. Domestic production alone cannot close this gap on the timeline the strategic environment demands. So you go to the allies who count and will stick with America. Japan co-developed the SM-3 Block IIA and manufactures key components. CSIS documented active missile co-production working groups under the U.S.-Japan DICAS framework. South Korea produces PAC-3 MSE, and the Atlantic Council assessed its defense industry can deliver NATO-interoperable munitions at scale and on accelerated timelines. Poland began producing PAC-3 MSE launch tubes at WZL-1 in 2024. Breaking Defense reported that Australia, India, Japan, and South Korea are "increasingly willing and able to make direct contributions to the industrial and technological foundations of American military power." Treat these allied industrial bases as what they are: extensions of American defense manufacturing capacity. Beyond buying finished rounds, license munitions designs for allied co-manufacturing under frameworks modeled on AUKUS. CSIS identified ITAR reform as the single biggest obstacle and noted that AUKUS exemptions already provide a template. Extending similar arrangements to Japan and South Korea for constrained munitions expands surge capacity faster than any new domestic factory. Then address the cost-exchange problem Epic Fury made undeniable. The U.S. spent $4 million interceptors against $30,000 drones for weeks. Ukraine built a layered counter-drone architecture producing over a thousand interceptor drones daily at $1,000 to $5,000 each. CENTCOM deployed $35,000 LUCAS drones for the first time during this campaign. That model needs to scale from combat improvisation into an industrial program built around vertically integrated companies that manufacture domestically at volume. The Gulf states that burned through their own interceptor stocks need replenishment too. Structuring mutual procurement agreements where allied purchases flow through expanded production lines creates the demand signals that convert framework agreements into funded factories. CSIS put it directly: "production is deterrence." None of this replaces the domestic base. All of it buys time while that base scales. Framework agreements have to become contracts before the bids expire. The motor chokepoint has to break. The sub-tier supply chain has to connect to real-time demand. The workforce has to grow. As I wrote for @TheAmericanMind: the firms and policymakers who build the architecture to close the gap between what the strategy promises and what the factory floor delivers will determine whether American military power remains a material fact. Epic Fury held. The next campaign may not have the same margin. The 18 months ahead matter more than the 18 days behind us.
Louie Simmons on Conditioning for Football Players… “Football is a knock you out, back up, knock you out, back up sport. When you run gassers, you turn explosive athletes into endurance athletes.” You must train the correct energy systems for success in Sport!🙌🏻
We just cooked the protein bar industry. 🔥 Most are candy bars in disguise: seed oils, gums, fake sweeteners, sugar. Not @eatlineage. New Protein Bar: <200 cal 20g grass-fed whey + collagen 100% real food—no BS Tastes incredible 🍫 Who's in?
