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@Shem_Haile

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SoFi Stadium Katılım Eylül 2019
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shem@Shem_Haile·
@ASDem @RicTorresII Honestly my concern would be the political reaction. A large portion of dems were convinced that a dem lockout was a possibility, and when Steyer started spending on XB attack ads, an unexpectedly high number of dems were repulsed. Boosting CB might’ve turned off some voters imo
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Addisu Demissie
Addisu Demissie@ASDem·
@RicTorresII My guess is they thought they had a chance for first and feared they’d be helping Becerra into 2nd. Which is a miss but a more defensible one I guess. I don’t see any credible research suggesting they were ever really in contention for 1st.
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Addisu Demissie
Addisu Demissie@ASDem·
If and when Steyer falls short, the failure to try to boost Bianco among Republicans is partly to blame. It’s gross, I hate it too but politics ain’t beanbag. Was the lowest hanging strategic fruit. (Unless they tried to do it and keep it quiet! Someone correct me in DMs…)
Ellis Bates@ElliscbIV

Steyer netting a single raw vote on Hilton in Riverside is surprising, especially since late mail there is far less blue than in most other counties. Bianco seems to be taking the lion’s share of the Republican vote.

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shem@Shem_Haile·
@jakefromgeorgia @JonCookingham “i can’t afford the care i need!” The Becerra Supporter Response: “fuck you” The jokes write themselves😭😭😭
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Jake & the derg 🎨⚖️
Jake & the derg 🎨⚖️@jakefromgeorgia·
@JonCookingham Again, fuck you. I’m not voting for plutocracy because of your personal delusions about the reasons for your financial situation. You should have backed a qualified candidate. This is on you.
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Jake & the derg 🎨⚖️
Jake & the derg 🎨⚖️@jakefromgeorgia·
Steyer’s failure to buy a runoff position is a victory for the progressive movement. Anyone who truly hates money in politics should recognize that his elevation was a clear step toward plutocracy in the US. Oh but his policies! Fuck you.
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shem
shem@Shem_Haile·
@cruickshank @daveweigel Steyer will probably end up losing by 50-100k votes. Even if Becerra ended up taking 2/3s of Porter’s votes, Steyer would have been through
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Robert Cruickshank
Robert Cruickshank@cruickshank·
@daveweigel If he had been Congressman Steyer I’m confident he’d have won it. And he very nearly pulled off second place. I don’t think Porter cost him, as her votes would have been split between Steyer and Becerra.
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David Weigel
David Weigel@daveweigel·
There’s a “Katie Porter should have quit and let Steyer win” discourse, but worth examining how a Dem with bottomless money endorsing every progressive position couldn’t win most Democratic votes… in California.
Wesley Yang@wesyang

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shem@Shem_Haile·
@Nebraskademsoc do you not think there could have been a political revolt against him if he had done that given all the fanaticism about a democrat lockout leading up to the primary? I don’t think ppl took the idea of 2 dems getting through serious until the last weekend tbh
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Owen
Owen@Nebraskademsoc·
Steyer needed to run adds for Bianco is my main takeaway from this
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shem@Shem_Haile·
@kingofnaboo @ohgoditsmatthew Watch any of the debates and ESPECIALLY watch the NYT Housing Forum they held last month and it was obvious that Steyer had a more nuanced understanding of the issues and policy solutions. At the housing forum Becerra almost looked incompetent, he’s going to be a sitting duck
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cole
cole@kingofnaboo·
@ohgoditsmatthew "Take Becerra out of it" and you just made it all about Becerra. This is about Steyer not having anything to back up that he stands for what he says he does or the capability of doing what he plans to do because he has nothing to stand on. That's important as well.
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Matthew
Matthew@ohgoditsmatthew·
I truly don’t know what to make of people like this. You purposely ignore where candidates stand on issues and go for the easy “MAAAH HE’S A BILLIONAIRE!!!!”. Becerra had no grounding message other than his race and Trump. His plans were vague, and he didn’t even explain those well! Like please be fucking serious here.
cole@kingofnaboo

Take Becerra out of it, I will never understand why leftists believe Steyer is capable of governing anything let alone California. The man has zero experience as a leader, a public servant and has 0 accomplishments. Just a rich guy trying to buy an election and talking the talk.

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VoteHub
VoteHub@VoteHub·
San Diego County 6/8 Drop Candidate – Votes (Percent, Difference from 6/2 Votes) 🔵 Xavier Becerra – 46,243 (30.7%, +5.9%) 🔵 Tom Steyer – 39,168 (26.0%, +7.9%) 🔴 Steve Hilton – 38,846 (25.8%, -7.1%) 🔴 Chad Bianco – 10,610 (7.0%, -2.5%)
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shem@Shem_Haile·
@JulianAndreone Katie has no right to criticize Becerra in the future because she will be the reason he’s in office
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Julian Andreone
Julian Andreone@JulianAndreone·
Steyer within 2.8% (roughly 200,000 votes) of Hilton. If he doesn’t pull off a miracle here, Katie Porter …
Julian Andreone tweet media
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shem@Shem_Haile·
@AlDefinitely Orange and San Diego also basically just did net zero for Hilton. Steyer may very very narrowly still be in this
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Definitely Not Al Gore 🇺🇲🇺🇦🇵🇸
Definitely Not Al Gore 🇺🇲🇺🇦🇵🇸@AlDefinitely·
Ok I don't know what just dropped but based on NBC's estimate for the votes remaining he would need to win by closer to ~10% over Hilton now. Could be some real movement, could be favorable areas.
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Definitely Not Al Gore 🇺🇲🇺🇦🇵🇸
Definitely Not Al Gore 🇺🇲🇺🇦🇵🇸@AlDefinitely·
Alameda drop really really helped Steyer. I estimated yesterday evening that he would need to win what's out by ~12% over Hilton to advance, he now has to win what's out by ~11%. Still probably won't be enough, but he's not out of it quite yet.
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shem@Shem_Haile·
@johnholowach Maybe restores Medi-Cal eligibility to undocumented immigrants but not much else
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J O H N@johnholowach·
Well on the plus side, my expectations for Becerra are so abysmal that even just reaching half of Newsom's level would improve upon them. Nevertheless, I feel he's not going to be aggressive on housing, he won't do much for healthcare, he's going to push us further into high costs and we will end up losing 3-4 seats in the 2030 census because he will have incompetently managed the state to such a degree that we bleed population even more. But hey, maybe I'm wrong!
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shem@Shem_Haile·
@ElliscbIV At this pace, what would he need turnout to be to catch Hilton?
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VoteHub
VoteHub@VoteHub·
Santa Clara County 6/7 Drop Candidate – Votes (Percent, Difference from 6/2 Votes) 🔵 Xavier Becerra – 12,819 (34.3%, +5.5%) 🔵 Tom Steyer – 11,165 (29.8%, +9.1%) 🔴 Steve Hilton – 6,751 (18.0%, -6.2%) 🔴 Chad Bianco – 1,153 (3.1%, -2.3%)
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shem@Shem_Haile·
@VoteHub NEVER GIVE UP STEYERBROS
shem tweet mediashem tweet media
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VoteHub
VoteHub@VoteHub·
WinCast update: Hilton’s chance to advance in the CA governor’s race rose from 85% to 93% after Steyer again fell short of his needed marks on Saturday. The aggregate drops were roughly as expected, but with more vote in, uncertainty is shrinking and Hilton remains clearly favored.
VoteHub tweet media
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Jordan Schwartz
Jordan Schwartz@MayTheSchwartz7·
One final chart to cap off analysis of the first five days of the election. We can get into the weeds with the numbers, but this is what it all translates into. Barring significant shifts in how the late vote progresses or much higher turnout, Hilton is very likely to advance.
Jordan Schwartz tweet media
Jordan Schwartz@MayTheSchwartz7

Going back to Election Night, we figured out that Tom Steyer would need his late vote results to be about 15 points better than Steve Hilton's relative to Election Night (where Hilton was up over 8 points). The late vote shift is now only up to just over 12 points.

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shem@Shem_Haile·
@ZacharyDonnini LA County increased their expected turnout yesterday and Riverside decreased theirs, is there any possibility that we see higher turnout than the existing estimates concentrated in Steyer’s strongholds?
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Zachary Donnini
Zachary Donnini@ZacharyDonnini·
Steyer is gaining but quickly running out of runway. Even yesterday when drops were disproportionately concentrated in his strongest areas the target still went up.
Jordan Schwartz@MayTheSchwartz7

One way to look at the progression of the CA Gov primary: each day of vote reporting has led to Steyer needing larger and larger margins with the votes that remain. After Election Night, he needed to beat Hilton by ~9.1% in late votes. That number now approaches 12%.

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shem@Shem_Haile·
@ElliscbIV AKA Monday’s valley numbers will be the dagger😔
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shem@Shem_Haile·
@VoteHub it’s over man💔
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VoteHub
VoteHub@VoteHub·
Orange County 6/6 Drop Candidate – Votes (Percent, Difference from 6/2 Votes) 🔴 Steve Hilton – 16,232 (31.2%, -6.5%) 🔵 Xavier Becerra – 14,800 (28.4%, +6.7%) 🔵 Tom Steyer – 11,170 (21.5%, +5.9%) 🔴 Chad Bianco – 4,238 (8.1%, -3.0%)
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Keşfet

@ASDem @RicTorresII @jakefromgeorgia @JonCookingham @cruickshank @daveweigel @Nebraskademsoc @kingofnaboo