@CatsAndTechNY @jackprandelli False. You can get insurance, that's the easy part. Getting shot at is the hard part . . .
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Shipping Kemah
90 posts
@jackprandelli VLCCs run ME to Asia until they can't get insured. Lloyd's pulled Hormuz war risk in Feb. 70-80% of tanker traffic gone within hours. Ships didn't change. Insurance did.
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🚢 Oil Tankers Decide the Market
Not the Other Way Around.
This is how crude really moves ⬇️
• ULCC / VLCC
200k–320k DWT. Long-haul giants. Middle East → Asia. Lowest cost per barrel.
• Suezmax
120k–160k DWT. Optimized for the Suez Canal. Atlantic ↔ Asia flexibility.
• Aframax
80k–120k DWT. Regional workhorse. Shorter routes. Higher freight sensitivity.
• Panamax
60k–80k DWT. Canal-restricted. Niche trades only.
Tanker size = route access + freight cost + arbitrage viability.
When geopolitics hit canals or chokepoints, freight rewrites oil prices fast.
Whoever controls ships controls flows.
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Shipping Kemah retweetledi
@contang_o @lzab1453 Could also be someone long TD3 FFAs that are trying to paint the tape . . . goes both ways. Not saying it is, just that seemingly every fixture of TD3 has an ulterior motive these days . . .
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IMO, this should materially help Ardmore close the persistent gap in valuation with TRMD and HAFN. No other reason for difference, as commercial performance and governance are top notch $ASC $TRMD $HAFN
Shipping Kemah@ShippingKemah
“Doubling dividend payout ratio to two-thirds of adjusted earnings, effective 1Q 2026” $ASC My heart is full ❤️
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“Doubling dividend payout ratio to two-thirds of adjusted earnings, effective 1Q 2026” $ASC
My heart is full ❤️
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Fearnleys: "Elsewhere, buyers are in hot pursuit of prompt MR tankers, with this week scrubber fitted ARDMORE ENGINEER (49K DWT STX 2014) bought by GESCO for USD 35.5M." $ASC
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Shipping Kemah retweetledi
AL SALMI (9534793); a Kuwaiti VLCC supertanker laden with ~1.2M barrels of Saudi crude and 800,000 barrels of Kuwaiti crude as per our tracking. She was done loading a month ago. Tonight's incident was brought to our attention by @Osinttechnical. Thank you!
RogerRabbit@signalintelguy
@TankerTrackers What boat got hit nw of dubai today?
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Nikos just posted this on LinkedIn.
Tsakos management continues its hilarious non-shipping related capital allocation streak
$TEN
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With the temporary relaxed Russian sanctions, looks like it won’t just be the Chinese and Indians that get all these floating barrels. Not surprised in the slightest
Shipping Kemah@ShippingKemah
Chinese going to offload lots of floating storage, sanctioned or not, if there is any disruption to oil flows. Others may panic but the Chinese were probably ready for this in the short-term
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Hold on for a second.
Premarket oil is up 30%~, trades down to 12% at the open and now at 3:13 central time WTI is down 3.25%?
All while the oil trading market is seen as one of the most sophisticated sharp markets in the world?
I do not buy it and something stinks. How do we track if the treasury is manipulating through futures?
#OOTT
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@contang_o Truly absurd. Can only hope either details are wrong or that someone re-thinks this lunacy
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@contang_o Pop quiz team
Do you refill the SPR:
A. Before the conflict when there are ample supplies
B. During the conflict when there is a supply panic
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From an insurance perspective, I don’t see why this Trump move wouldn’t work. That’s only half of the equation. The more important part is trying to guarantee safe passage of commercial vessels. Recent experience in the Red Sea suggests it’s harder to do . . . #tankers
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In light of today’s developments, feels like the below sequence of events was not a coincidence. Waiting to hear the narrative spin for markets on Sunday night / Monday morning bc Trump is undoubtedly focused on oil. Tankers going to have a very wild Monday. $FRO $DHT $ECO $INSW
Shipping Kemah@ShippingKemah
3D geopolitical chess - was Venezuela hit first so that we can talk about the oil markets having access to those barrels in the event that there is a disruption to Iranian oil flows? No reprieve in 2026 from constant influence of geopolitics in shipping, tread carefully out there
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Chinese going to offload lots of floating storage, sanctioned or not, if there is any disruption to oil flows. Others may panic but the Chinese were probably ready for this in the short-term
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Interesting data point that for the $GNK earnings release, shiptwit reaction is 🦗🦗
IMO Q4 was ok, though they surprised to the upside with the 50c divvy to support stock from hostile intentions
Q1 guidance seems a tad light - looks like they took cover in Supras before the run
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@contang_o What's most relevant is ASC with $2.8M of stock based comp versus STNG with $71.6M!
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By my quick math, which very well may be wrong, it appears DHT booked their open spot ships at an average of ~$97,200/day since the Q4 Business Update in mid-January. $DHT $ECO $FRO $INSW
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