Sam

High-agency people seem to have insane luck. They don't. They just tried 47 things while everyone else tried two and gave up. The conviction that reality is negotiable is generative, it makes you creative. Because if you believe there's always another angle, you start looking for angles other people don't see.

@astraiaintel Yes

@hannahkmi Quanto cazzo sei bella mamma mia

Today, the EU published the formal bill for EU Inc, a new legal framework that will make building companies across Europe a lot easier. I've seen firsthand how fragmented rules can hold back European talent. EU Inc addresses this directly with 48-hour online registration, zero minimum capital, and standardized stock options, making it simpler to get started and grow. When I started Lovable, my goal was to empower anyone with an idea to build. This new regulation aligns perfectly with that vision because it helps remove the hurdles and accelerate the journey for builders throughout Europe. It really opens up the opportunity to create a global company from anywhere in Europe. I'm incredibly optimistic about what this means for founders.

Prediction: When fighting Iran gets too painful because of oil prices or polls or whatever, Trump will claim that the current state of things, whatever it happens to be, was his goal, declare victory, and retreat.

Nessuna di queste parole è nella bibbia

Outside Anthropic's office in SF... intense moment!

@desno365 did an agent wrote that? 😂

humans are so flawed… carbon-based life can survive only by merging with silicon, there is no other way

@VitalikButerin @grok fammi un riassunto di questo posto

Recently I have been starting to worry about the state of prediction markets, in their current form. They have achieved a certain level of success: market volume is high enough to make meaningful bets and have a full-time job as a trader, and they often prove useful as a supplement to other forms of news media. But also, they seem to be over-converging to an unhealthy product market fit: embracing short-term cryptocurrency price bets, sports betting, and other similar things that have dopamine value but not any kind of long-term fulfillment or societal information value. My guess is that teams feel motivated to capitulate to these things because they bring in large revenue during a bear market where people are desperate - an understandable motive, but one that leads to corposlop. I have been thinking about how we can help get prediction markets out of this rut. My current view is that we should try harder to push them into a totally different use case: hedging, in a very generalized sense (TLDR: we're gonna replace fiat currency) Prediction markets have two types of actors: (i) "smart traders" who provide information to the market, and earn money, and necessarily (ii) some kind of actor who loses money. But who would be willing to lose money and keep coming back? There are basically three answers to this question: 1. "Naive traders": people with dumb opinions who bet on totally wrong things 2. "Info buyers": people who set up money-losing automated market makers, to motivate people to trade on markets to help the info buyer learn information they do not know. 3. "Hedgers": people who are -EV in a linear sense, but who use the market as insurance, reducing their risk. (1) is where we are today. IMO there is nothing fundamentally morally wrong with taking money from people with dumb opinions. But there still is something fundamentally "cursed" about relying on this too much. It gives the platform the incentive to seek out traders with dumb opinions, and create a public brand and community that encourages dumb opinions to get more people to come in. This is the slide to corposlop. (2) has always been the idealistic hope of people like Robin Hanson. However, info buying has a public goods problem: you pay for the info, but everyone in the world gets it, including those who don't pay. There are limited cases where it makes sense for one org to pay (esp. decision markets), but even there, it seems likely that the market volumes achieved with that strategy will not be too high. This gets us to (3). Suppose that you have shares in a biotech company. It's public knowledge that the Purple Party is better for biotech than the Yellow Party. So if you buy a prediction market share betting that the Yellow Party will win the next election, on average, you are reducing your risk. Mathematical example: suppose that if Purple wins, the share price will be a dice roll between [80...120], and if Yellow wins, it's between [60...100]. If you make a size $10 bet that Yellow will win, your earnings become equivalent to a dice roll between [70...110] in both cases. Taking a logarithmic model of utility, this risk reduction is worth $0.58. Now, let's get to a more fascinating example. What do people who want stablecoins ultimately want? They want price stability. They have some future expenses in mind, and they want a guarantee that will be able to pay those expenses. But if crypto grows on top of USD-backed stablecoins, crypto is ultimately not truly decentralized. Furthermore, different people have different types of expenses. There has been lots of thinking about making an "ideal stablecoin" that is based on some decentralized global price index, but what if the real solution is to go a step further, and get rid of the concept of currency altogether? Here's the idea. You have price indices on all major categories of goods and services that people buy (treating physical goods/services in different regions as different categories), and prediction markets on each category. Each user (individual or business) has a local LLM that understands that user's expenses, and offers the user a personalized basket of prediction market shares, representing "N days of that user's expected future expenses". Now, we do not need fiat currency at all! People can hold stocks, ETH, or whatever else to grow wealth, and personalized prediction market shares when they want stability. Both of these examples require prediction markets denominated in an asset people want to hold, whether interest-bearing fiat, wrapped stocks, or ETH. Non-interest-bearing fiat has too-high opportunity cost, that overwhelms the hedging value. But if we can make it work, it's much more sustainable than the status quo, because both sides of the equation are likely to be long-term happy with the product that they are buying, and very large volumes of sophisticated capital will be willing to participate. Build the next generation of finance, not corposlop.

@ethankongee @HarryStebbings Dude they only have B2C app in portfolio

@HarryStebbings Or it blows up. Many of its portfolio companies are SaaS. And we all know AI is going to wipe out 90% of them.

Prediction: it is 2032 and Bending Spoons has acquired Duolingo.

@BoringBiz_ AGI is the narrative for investors, not for customers. The average user perceives ChatGPT as “AI” for searching information and answering questions I don't think they should be mixed up

Anthropic and Claude's recent rise feels like a page taken right out of Peter Thiel's advice from nearly a decade ago > start with a niche that is built around a small market (coding) > quickly gain market share in that niche > build reputation and cult like following around that niche > expand that advantage to then slowly go after everyting else Compare this to OpenAI's strategy where the motto was "build AGI for everything" from the very beginning The vision is simply too grand, and the market is too large. There is no niche. The appeal is far too broad and the cult-like following is not quite there As Peter Thiel is saying, when you go after extremely big markets as a smaller company, you tend to put yourself at competition with far too many people That is exactly what ended up happening here And maybe, even more importantly, going after everything at once distracts your team and pulls you in far too many directions While vision is important, this mistake can end up killing your business Worth a listen

This.

President Ursula von der Leyen officially announced the EU–INC today at Davos! A single legal entity for all European founders to grow massive companies in Europe. Online incorporation in 48 hours. No more bureaucratic mess across European borders. All of you made this happen!

always look at what company does, not what they say if agi is near, you are not building an ad platform what are you going to sell? we have agi, we don't have jobs to whom are you going to sell? we don't have jobs

i built a News Feed app no doomscrolling: every 12 hours, it delivers the 12 most relevant news stories for your favorite topics it’s free, hope it’s useful: tonews.app

500,000+ lines of code in 2 months. one engineer @waveful_inc not a flex. just what's possible now if you're making REAL impact.

@krishdotdev still rocking the M1

This might be the biggest problem with macbook.

@MahiGamer89 @embark Riassunto del tuo ultimo video: instagram.com/reel/DRzLAEpjG…

Togliere il PvP da Arc Raiders è come tagliare una gamba ad un cavallo. #ArcRaiders @embark per favore no

Christams came early thanks @nvidia