Shane Smith

Now that Elections Canada has released poll-by-poll data from the 2019 election, it's time to create some maps. In the replies, I will post (E-W) maps of various cities and regions, and off each city/region, I will post other replies showing that city/region over time. #elxn43

@ForecasterEnten n=3

Trump's right: his endorsements are gold in GOP primaries. He's like a Ruth or Brady for the GOP. Most people he endorses wins, & even most challengers win vs. incumbents. No wonder: Trump has the highest own party approval of any 21st century prez at this point in term 2.

@nationalpost I hope everyone managed to save that additional $160,000 last year

Canadians believe they need $1.7 million to retire, up from $1.54 million last year: BMO survey nationalpost.com/news/canada/ca…

@ryanburge Is this controlling for age? Higher education rates have risen over time. "High school only" often means older/elderly, which could also correlate with health issues requiring them to stay home and therefore participate online.

When it comes to attending religious services: Those with college degrees are slightly more likely to be weekly IN PERSON attenders than those who stopped at high school. But lower education folks are nearly TWICE as likely to watch services online.

@researchremora This series is stunning

Freshwater ecoregions of Australia. #ggplot2 adventures, an #rstats tale

@researchremora Beautiful!

Freshwater ecoregions of Africa. #ggplot2 adventures, an #rstats tale

@SecretaryBurgum Why are you supporting Alaskan independence?

@starsandrobots I think I originally followed you for your commentary around tech, but I'm also finding your parenting posts to be as good (there was another a week or two back that I saw, too). It's great you can be multidimension in your writing.

So much of the magic in parenting is contained in the relationship between the parent and the kid, and parents “see” this in every photo of their kid, which is why parents are constantly showing photos of their kids, but the quality is almost impossible to capture by photograph.

All of the gushing and glowing that parents do translates so poorly out of the experience, parents all sound the same to anyone who isn’t one. But it’s all true.

@wyatt_claypool Increase the deposit amount, and only return the deposit if the candidate obtains, say, 5% of the vote: doesn't restrict candidates but will probably fix the problem.

The Battle River Crowfoot byelection candidates forum proved that in a democracy a ballot should probably have maximum of five names on it. Not as an actual legislated rule, but as a general rule of thumb after about five candidates you start to have a lot of candidates who are doubles of each other on everything except name. Yesterday you had about five left-wing candidates and five right-wing candidates on the stage, and the whole thing really could’ve just been Pierre Poilievre, the Liberal, the Libertarian, and the NDP. Everyone else was just a different version of someone else on stage. Bonnie Crickley was trying really hard to sound like a centrist, but from all of her other interviews she’s clearly a liberal who is playing to a very right wing crowd in the room and even then she still obviously was not a “centrist” like she claimed to be. Outside of talking about a couple areas where she’d like to see more efficiency in spending she didn’t have much to say other than attacking Pierre for not living there.

@TubeMapCentral I don't think you follow me, so I think it would make little change. I don't post much, I don't seek out followers, and I follow accounts with content I want to see, rather than looking for accounts that might boost my virtually non-existent engagement.

@Smith80D That's great, I will make sure I don't de-follow you.

From August 2025 I will be de-following all followers who follow more than 1000 accounts. It will be a slow process because X doesn't want people to be able to curate followers, but I'm not here to create feed-fodder mush.

@TubeMapCentral I follow over a thousand accounts, and yet still see your tweets.

But let's also add, if you follow a lot of people, but somehow my tweets get into your feed amongst the endless cat videos, DM me or reply here, I would be delighted to keep you here.

@robinhanson But it's so easy to win a debate against strawmen!

Uh, the beliefs of most conservative intellectuals are quite consistent with the solid consensus results of most academic fields.

@RpsAgainstTrump The prison system? Can we root for the prison system to be the winner?

Who are we rooting for in this beautiful disaster?

Popcorn, please 🍿

@KosSamaras An op-ed backed up by evidence from the UK: theguardian.com/business/2025/…

First it was factory workers. Now it will be those in advertising, finance, admin staff and a lot more. (My Fin Review Oped in this thread) Globalisation in the ’80s and ’90s gutted industrial jobs, but Australia weathered the storm better than most, thanks to the reformist leadership of the Hawke and Keating governments, yes. Howard as well. Now, AI threatens to do the same to white-collar professionals. This time the disruption will impact people who were told they were safe, the university-educated, the upwardly mobile, the heart of the knowledge economy. Australia avoided the populist backlash that engulfed the US and UK. We did it once. We must do it again.

@Maggie_Perry6 I mean, nice maps, but I think your interpretation is off.

@Maggie_Perry6 It looks to me like the outer-suburbs had a bigger swing than the inner-suburbs. Western Sydney vs Sydney, Grayndler, Wentworth and Kingsford-Smith. Bonner, Moreton, Oxley, Rankin, Forde vs Brisbane, Griffith, Lilley. Adelaide is an exception. Perth is middle suburbs.

Gonna do a few daily maps to visualize the 2025 election. First one, a two-party-preferred swing map for each seat (pretty simple)! In most cities the swings to Labor were generally bigger in the inner suburbs & smaller in the outer suburbs, though Melbourne is a big exception

@IanHanke There have been numerous ceasefires. They are always broken by the same side (or its proxies).

There was a lot of misplaced optimism....maybe, hopefully the ceasefire will eventually hold.

@kinsellawarren A stopped clock is right twice a day.

One of the few occasions I support a Trump decision.

@AvidCommentator It's not like policies about youth home ownership helped the Canadian Conservatives with young voters. Oh, wait, that's exactly what it did.

"TO REPEAT: THERE IS NO CONSERVATIVE POLITICAL FUTURE UNLESS MORE PEOPLE ESP YOUNG PEOPLE HAVE A HOME OF THEIR OWN TO CONSERVE" Exactly, it's basic electoral math. Renters preference Labor 65-35. More of the status quo is electoral demographic suicide for the LNP.

@mumbletwits @kevinbonham I also put together a bit of a redistribution explorer app, if you're interested: shanedsmith.shinyapps.io/2024_Redistrib… Estimated vote at the SA1 level based on the SA1 to booth CSV from the AEC, tinkered a little with weighting declaration votes. Serve with a very generous pinch of salt.

@kevinbonham great tks

@Prominent_Bryan Mate, what I'm getting from that second review is that you need to pick a new accent.

The duality of reviews