Vapid Questions Capital

This account turned a bit after I took one of those fancy jobs, so now I mainly just ask dumb questions rather than try to provide much insight. Still happy to chat with anyone via DM on bank stuff, but I created that dumb named account a while ago before I had any hubris

Happy to see @abcampbell getting a lot of love out there today. His post on silver last year got me digging not only on SLV but the miners too. Ended up buying LEAPS that really helped my year

@ShortSeller Morning Andy can you open up DMs, got a couple fins stocks I think you’d find interesting

Good Morning

It’s incredible that people think this company does a 5% ROA

@scrappy_malloy @tangentstyle Was just gonna say the people saying ABS is frozen are utterly insane. Spreads are absurdly tight right now

@tangentstyle $PGY literally closed another big ABS deal the other day. These ppl are insane

@AcaciaCap I literally don’t get how this happens if you get cash dominion of funds. Don’t the vendors literally send payments to the bank first before the bank then remits the rest to the ABF sponsor?

It’s also confusing how ABF lenders are getting screwed by multiple parties double counting collateral. The whole game is making sure you have good title to the collateral and a structure to take control if you need to. Just terrible underwriting and/or fraud

Factoring is not the issue. The issue is that a grossly overleveraged roll-up of auto parts companies (many that previously restructured or were poor PE investments) had no problem raising $9B of debt on $1B of EBITDA. Access do debt capital is as easy as its ever been

@mambanyc @Alpha_Ex_LLC Couldn’t disagree more. Dean Curnutt is legitimately a national treasure. He’s excellent at articulating nuances of volatility and does it for very little in return. Seems like a genuinely good natured person and I always promote his stuff to others in the business

@Alpha_Ex_LLC Delete this. Why do people piss away edge in exchange for trying to sound smart on the internet. Just go make money with ur info dude

"The collar is coming, the collar is coming", they shouted from the rooftops in reference to that 40k, 3 legged combination of SPX options sure to hit the Street on 9/30. What to expect? End user will buy a 3m 95/80 put spread, paying around 110bps. To make the overall trade a net zero premium, a 104% (ish) call will be sold. The net economics are around where they typically clear on the roll. And basically, a 3m 50 delta, 95-105 risk reversal is bought, with a deep OTM put thrown in there as well. To me, buying the 95/80 put spread makes sense. But selling that call at 12 vol while paying 18 for the 95 strike put is a lot of strike skew to eat. Skew exists for an empirical reason - indices like the SPX mostly move down faster than they move up. But when the strikes are so close, 6+ vols of skew is heavy and it really makes the price of reducing risk through a collar expensive. What's curious is that since May, the SPX is realizing 12.8% vol on days it rises and just 8.8% vol on days it falls. I'm surprised the skew hasn't flattened as a result. Check out the below chart on SPX skew versus same in HSI (Hang Seng). They share the 90% vol but that's about it. Where the 95/105 collar eats 6 vols in the SPX, it has zero in the HSI. The economics become vastly more favorable for the hedger when the skew is flatter.

NYC subways are on a pretty good run of just the most dystopian ads you can imagine: First was FaceTune - aka AI makeup Next was the ketamine depression prescription ads Now it’s Friend.com - which is an AI wearable you put on a necklace to be your friend

@tangentstyle Funny to see all the “read thrus” in Bchats this AM. Everyone has talked about ALLY’s 2022/2023 vintage for 2 straight years

@tangentstyle Ding ding

Nothing like a fresh alexopolous bull report to bring out the bank bear in me

@shortseller KRE wedge from early 2022 just hit top of channel (think it failed). You think this is a “from failed moves come fast moves” kinda situation?

$KRE 'path'

@MaxfieldOnBanks I’ll take “Things and Empire Builder” would say for $400, Alex

“The third that worked well . . . worked really well,” said frank sorrentino number four, on the ratio of bank mergers that result in improved as opposed to impaired performance.

I just think ABC should do whatever it wants with Kimmel for reasons that’s don’t pertain to ass-kissing this administration. It’s just extremely frustrating seeing this Orwellian future play out before our eyes

Trying to peg this as “malicious lies” is just insane. He’s just obvious left-leaning, not to mention he works on a comedy show. I’m certainly not making a comment on what political denomination the shooter followed, or that it’s not an incendiary comment. It obviously is.

Im not a Kimmel fan by any means but what a load of horse shit from this Benny Johnson clown Trying to compare this with the fucking calamity of lies that come out of ACTUAL news broadcasts from both Fox and CNN over the last few years is absurd This type grifting is a disgrace

@blueprintsmb22 Me trying to explain what idio is to my pops who was old school will never not be funny He’s a big “well is your gross long or short?” And I’m just like “It’s not that simple if your long beta shitco cons fins vs like a TBTF bank We have to target a specific vol” His face:

@SomeCleverNews Tasty huh? Hard to explain how painful the risk model can be during risk on to friends and family lol

Old life. Market up. Dad calls to check in while I’m out for lunch grabbing a salad. Dad: Market is up so that’s good. Me: Um well I own too much large cap quality beating numbers and apparently short too much crap missing numbers. Not fun. Dad: Huh? Me: Nevermind. This is dumb. I’m over it. See you and Mom at Thanksgiving. My food is ready now. Love you.

Man @AirCanada is kinda the worst Just an absolutely miserable experience dealing with a laptop retrieval right now that should’ve taken all of 10 minutes. Was literally in the sleeve of a specific seat. De-board, realized quickly, and somehow 24hr later they still can’t find it

This seems like a pretty insane exchange. Man tries to rob you, and the end result is him telling you to be careful of getting robbed?