bbcomrade

@VolSignals @michaellistman I did not realize there are am settled spx options tomorrow

@michaellistman I promise that’s my expectation based on the market maker and firm positions expiring AM 🤷‍♂️

Looks like vol goes up tomorrow, not down

@countdraghula yes, oil will be floored at 90 prob (i know futures curve says its lower). but oil 90-150 doesnt kill american consumer. they have already been through so much shit thanks to donald/biden, this is just whatever at this point. very bad em though

Too much focus on the toll, not enough focus on a per country weekly VLCC quota system to reward "brotherhood" and keep that oil price nice and high That's the real moneymaker!

@sdav1986 Skill issue

I love when employees say “AI makes me so much more productive” Bullshit! Oh really? Are you making more money than pre-AI? No. Working fewer hours? Also no. Congrats, you’re not more productive, you’re a sucker

i mean, i think we go higher because of positioning and im positioning for a rally to 7k-7100 because it would infuriate everyone, not because it is logical. i think the thorn here is that iran is going to feel it needs nukes after the latest attacks. im more in the camp that donald will sell the country down the river and give them nukes + financing in exchange for a few dollars at the pump, so its entirely possible. im not concerned about iran wanting a deal, i agree w u they want the money, but the point is they can just tell donald gfy till he agrees to give up nukes. they know eventually he will cave bc theta is on their side. the longer they hold out, the more presure on donny bc of energy markets. whats the different to iran whether they do a deal this weekend or in a month?

I think that is obviously part of an agreement to lift sanctions, as would a commitment to cease funding for proxies. Point is, there's far more for them to gain by normalizing vs digging in their heels on unsustainable objectives like "closing the Strait". No clue on short term market stuff. I'm a long only investor.

Iran likes money just like everybody else. The outcome here is obvious. The only parties that don't want sanctions lifted are Russia & China. The former benefits from chaos & higher energy prices. The latter benefits from discounted Iranian oil.

Does it even matter anymore. What is the point of being bearish. You have to be so quick to monetize otherwise he tweets about a deal or talks or ceasefire (and doesn’t matter if it’s substantive or bs). Just not worth the headache when the market lets one guy jawbone trillion dollar company valuations

Crude curve strength should be making equity bulls nervous here.

@orrdavid @FaytuksNetwork What makes you so sure China isn’t pushing for this to go on longer. They only stepped in and told Iran to make the deal when Donny agreed to Irans 10 point plan which included payment in yuan

@FaytuksNetwork Israel isn't going to stop in Lebanon. And the IRGC is going to capitulate anyway. But there could be some more hiccups before they give up. Ultimately, the world - especially China - isn't going to have Iran blockading them.

BREAKING: Iran tells mediators its U.S. talks in Islamabad hinge on a Lebanon cease-fire, warning it may reverse Strait of Hormuz decision. Iranian mediators have also warned they would continue to carry out attacks on regional countries, including Israel, if attacks on Lebanon and Iran by Israel continue — WSJ

this is what i dont get. everyone only looks at the outcome. a further step of reasoning would lead one to question what drove the ceasefire? it was a last minute call from china, who had stayed out of it. so ya, it would appear axios was making shit up at the behest of donny and got bailed out by china deciding they got what they want once the US agreed to a petroyuan system

Guess Axios isn't that uncredible, eh

Yeh stopped out after agreeing to give Iran the money and permission for nukes. Saved us a dollar at the pump tho (down from spike he caused). That is like me stopping out when an option have gone from 100 bucks to 10 cents and I hit the dime bid out of bitterness and fear of needing a cnote

Trump is much worse than all previous modern presidents on any metric you can pick except 2: he’s funnier than all of them, and also incredibly good at stopping out

@CapitalObserver The Iranians weren’t negotiating. China came in over the top last minute and said pull the trigger bc the Americans agreed to move to a Petroyuan system

Was Trump lying that there were negotiations or were the Iranians lying?

Most of my feed told me that Iran was winning and didn't want a ceasefire. It seems the IRGC is getting a bit nervous about what is coming. @Geo_papic was one of the rare exceptions that read the situation correctly

@TMTLongShort what are you babbling about. under the terms of the ceasefire, is iran gonna sell its oil in usd or cny? literally all that matters, not your 4d chess nonsense. do you wank it to pics of donny or something? the mental gymnastics are amazing

What we learnt tonight is the IRGC can tolerate multiple layers of its ranks getting obliterated but can’t tolerate losing support from China who is its primary supplier for everything that makes the economy run. That in-turn implies that the real pressure point for the IRGC is its economic infrastructure and destroying it would be an existential threat for the regime. The logical conclusion is that the IRGC’s internal calculus for its ability to survive an escalation by Trump where he embargo’s trade between Iran-China is far more pessimistic than the prevailing narrative implies. In other words regime change is closer to a coin flip if Trump escalates.

I been doin this for over a year. Be careful. If you pull too much they will yell at you (but just say u were researching and didn’t know). If you pull options chains each contract is an api pull. The real trick is getting xbbg to work over wsl which is something I’m super proud of figuring out and made my life 10x easier

So you can plug CC/OC (Claude code / open claw) into bloomberg. This method lets you plug-in w/o paying for API access. Below's a dummy overview of the back-end flow.

what world are you living in. if this happens, he lost the war. he's lost it anyway. this is all a smokescreen for boots. you're insane if you think the republican senate and the cabinet are going to let oil get sold in yuan. we are all uber fucked if that happens. he's pot committed, this is a smokescreen as we build troops and go in and topple the regime. he didn't go from being bibi's lap dog to dropping iran pellets of cash overnight because he's trying to save midterms he knows he's already lost.

Trump knows hes lost this battle but wont lose the war.

Dont understand why everyone on here thinks this is a negative headline. If reflective of reality, it shows trump isnt committed to Iran and your worst case middle east meltdown war wont happen. Iran will charge a toll and maybe US does another operation few months down the road

ya congrats, u get a 1% rally and blow out the left tail by 10-20x with the end of petrodollar and handing a theocratic terrorist regime control of hormuz and effectively opec. a regime that would rather see oil at 200 and the world economy crushed so they can exact revenge on the west and push the world to choose between energy security and keeping israel as a state. "your worst case middle east meltdown," check your pronouns bud. you mean trump's middle east meltdown. just F- thinking that surrendering to iran and watching an oversold market rally that had delta to buy on quarter end anyway is bullish.

so 1 day ago memes of donny being dragged around on a dog leash by bibi. now suddenly we are gonna let iran control hormuz. hoooooooookay buddy. not a diversion at all. no chance. donny just gonna fist israel all of a sudden and be known as the president who fucked america's global military standing permanently. you guys realize even he knows he's already lost midterms right? "he will taco because midtermzzzzzzzzz." god you people are insufferably stupid

this market is so thirsty for a bear market rally, any dumbass excuse to buy the dip, that now we are bidding spooz on the prospect of the end of the petrodollar. i am genuinely perplexed what planet everyone is on and might just stop trading till i can find some of the same weed that everyone else is smoking to better understand the dynamics

Ya I hear you. I can’t pretend to know their mentality but if I was them and I knew the other side had no political will to continue the war and offered billions of dollars and said take it or leave it, you’ll have to trust me and your other option is a 50% chance of dying in an air strike, I’d take the cash.

This taco scenario is a possibility. He’s certainly trying to do this. It is the Iranians who want more. They are really afraid that this is just a temporary ceasefire and the US will be back for more soon. They need some sort of reassurance that that won’t happen. And short of that, their plan to restore deterrence by destroying Trump politically so that no future president will think of attacking this porcupine again.

Very serious by Goldenberg of J Street. All the way until the end where he reveals a deep ignorance of Iranian incentives here. If the Western proposal is that Iran will be contained after the war, they will not lay down their arms. People need to understand that any attempt to put Iran in the box the West placed Saddam in will immediately activate the Hormuz weapon. It’s not possible anymore. That is what strategic defeat means here. foreignaffairs.com/iran/america-h…

@OnodaCapital @jay_21_ I agree with your bull case but the bear case is that Iran doesn’t let him out of this war now. They demand 10% tax on all flow thru Hormuz going forward as reparations as table stakes for any deal. US/gulf countries say fuck you and we get boots

Bear case is Trump starts global depression to achieve lasting regional peace Bull case is Trump takes a short-term self-interested path Mkt pricing peak for NVDA/MU/much of AI, but perma-capex for hyperscalers Credit crisis but also rate hikes / rates up Some homebuilders below TBV on housing price declines (40% core cpi) but rates up 27 SPY EPS was ~360 before oil spike. Mults *reasonable*. Ongoing productivity boom. Did QQQ peak on AI in Oct 25? Maybe. But >10% to set a new high Vix high 20s. Big volume on Friday. US more resilient to oil shock

I feel like Tom Lee I am so bullish Said that last week tho

Lazy people of the internet - I bundled it up here: github.com/hazat/pi-inter… ready to go. Used my own workflow, was a oneshot basically. Enjoy.