Mike Jones@technopopulist
I’d be flabbergasted if Trump doesn’t try to bring this war to a halt fairly quickly. He isn’t toppling the regime unless he commits ground troops, and that would be a disaster for the GOP. Iran is built for defence, not invasion. The terrain is brutal, the distances vast, and the logistics alone would be a nightmare. Supply lines would be stretched to breaking point, and the human cost would be enormous. Thousands upon thousands of American lives at risk for an outcome that is far from guaranteed.
Donaldo can keep up the air campaign, of course. But I struggle to see how a clean decapitation strategy works against a system like Iran’s. This is not a neatly centralised regime that collapses when you remove a mafia boss. It is diffuse and built to absorb shocks. Cut off one head and another emerges. They have spent decades preparing for exactly this kind of confrontation.
Even if the U.S. racks up some wins, there is a deeper problem. The more successful Washington is at destabilising Iran, the more dangerous Iran becomes. A cornered regime lashes out. That likely means going after energy infrastructure and anything that can rattle the global economy hard enough to force a rethink in Washington.
That is the paradox at the heart of this. In the end, Trump may have to present this as a “victory” and move on, even if the reality is far murkier. It will not look great, admittedly, but the alternatives are far worse.
