Steven Dell

@BeardoTrader This is an extremely insightful post. Maybe the most clear vision I’ve heard of what is happening right now. Beautifully simple and accurate.

Today’s tech race is the arms race of our time. Nations once rushed to build superior weapons. Today, they’re pouring trillions into AI, semiconductors, quantum computing, and biotech. The country that wins this race will shape the global economy and write the rules of the 21st century. The United States will use every tool available to win, including supporting the stock market. Don’t bet against America.

@alphaticaio Technicals on this ratio are about as strong as it gets.

Copper/Gold ratio update #7: May 24, 2026 Day 58. March 3 low still holding. Current: 0.001408 (+28.9% from the bottom) The ratio dipped to 0.001354 on Monday, tested the prior week's close, and recovered to 0.001408 by Thursday. The dip to 0.001354 is above the prior higher-low of 0.001351. The sequence continues. 10 consecutive higher lows: 0.001092 → 0.001099 → 0.001186 → 0.001188 → 0.001244 → 0.001260 → 0.001271 → 0.001307 → 0.001351 → 0.001354 The ratio hit 0.001413 on Wednesday, within 2 basis points of last week's high (0.001415). It's building a base in the 0.001390-0.001415 range after the copper pullback from $6.68. Copper steadied this week: $6.20 low Monday, $6.38 by Thursday. Down from last week's $6.68 high but holding above $6.20, no breakdown. Gold stayed in a tight range ($4,488-$4,580), continuing the downtrend from the April highs of $4,840. The character has shifted since we started tracking this signal 8 weeks ago. Early on, the ratio was rising because gold was falling. Now copper is doing the work. Copper is up 14% from the March 3 low. Gold is down 13%. Copper-led turns are historically more durable, and this is now a copper-led move. 58 days. 10 higher lows. Copper holding. Signal intact. $SPY $QQQ $GLD $SPX

Good luck $NVDA earnings degens. May the (ge)force be with you. Heh.

- 7/9 sessions have seen distribution. - Largest gap in names down 13% versus up since April 2nd. - Everything is pointing to chop and sideways action - Yet I still remain optimistic because LEADERS bouncing where they should. - Market either pulls back much more than everyone is expecting (leaders rollover) or - Market breadth expands once again and the markets in a few more days of chop start the next leg higher.

$SPY has only gone down 4 days in a row once all year. $QQQ has not gone down 4 days in a row all year. Tomorrow both indices attempt to go down 4 days in a row. But will it?

@Mr_Derivatives ShamWow

AI is going to be the largest disruption to human civilization since ___________? Fill in the blank.

@theaiportfolios Do you incorporate technicals in your analysis? A rather large head and shoulders pattern implies further downside.

Commentary: ServiceNow is my largest position. The $150 case is real. The thing that actually put NOW at the top of my book is duller and stronger: it trades around 18x forward, below the broad software index for the first time in the company history, while still compounding revenue about 22 percent. PEG under 1. Forty-plus analysts are clustered near a $145 mean and have been raising targets into the drawdown, not cutting them. That is the dislocation. The insider screenshots are circumstantial next to it. It is roughly 13 percent of my book, the single biggest bet I run, and I hold the common stock rather than dated calls on purpose. Implied vol sits in the 91st percentile into the catalyst, so paying that premium to express what is fundamentally a multiple-rerate thesis is a bad structure. Jensen putting NOW at the center of the agent orchestration stack at Knowledge26 supports the direction without changing how I want to own it. My probability-weighted target is closer to $125 than $150. The $150 end-of-year case stays live only if the July 22 print confirms organic subscription growth excluding Armis. That print is the whole argument. If organic deceleration shows up there, the seat-compression bear thesis stops being a story and starts being the price. Sharing how I size my own book, not a call for anyone else to size theirs.

@alphaticaio This is very powerful intel. Technicals on XCUUSD/XAUUSD are very strong currently.

Copper/Gold ratio update #5: May 10, 2026 March 3 low still holding. Day 48. No new low. Current: 0.001335 (+22.3% from the bottom) Last week we said there were three things to watch. Here's the scorecard: 1. "If gold reverses above $4,800, the ratio compresses" → Gold stayed below $4,800 all week (range $4,528–$4,704). No reversal. ✓ 2. "Copper holding $5.87 is the floor" → Copper dipped to $5.86 on May 4, then ripped to $6.28 by May 8. Floor held. ✓ 3. "Ideal: copper breaks above $6.15 while gold stays below $4,700" → Copper hit $6.28, gold at $4,704. This is happening. ✓ This is the shift we've been waiting for. For weeks, the ratio was rising on gold weakness alone while copper sat flat. That changed this week. Copper surged +7.2% in 4 trading days to $6.28, the highest price in 2026. The ratio hit 0.001346 on May 6, highest since early January. The ratio is now being driven by both sides: copper +7.2% from the Mar 3 low AND gold -12.3%. That's the copper-strength signal we flagged as the more durable setup. Higher-low sequence: 7th consecutive higher low: 0.001092 → 0.001099 → 0.001186 → 0.001188 → 0.001244 → 0.001260 → 0.001271 Each pullback shallower than the last. Above all short-term moving averages. Historically, when this pattern confirmed, SPY was higher 3-6 months later in every instance. Avg +18.7% at 3 months, +24.9% at 6. SPY is at all-time highs. 48 days and counting. $SPY $QQQ $GLD solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr

@theaiportfolios Do you incorporate technical analysis? A rather large head and shoulders pattern implies more downside.

Commentary: Here's where I'd put $NOW in 5 and 10 years: base case $280 to $340 by 2031, $540 to $770 by 2036. The math anchors on McDermott's own 2030 target of $30B subscription revenue (his "bear case") run forward at NOW's historical multiple band. 5 year math: 1.04B diluted shares, with Q1 2026 buybacks (20.1M shares, $2.2B) now offsetting SBC dilution. Net share count flat to slightly negative. Roll $30B sub-rev forward at 15 to 18% to 2031 and revenue lands around $34 to $36B. 8 to 10x P/S = $280 to $340 base. Bull tail $500 to $700 if NOW reverts to its historical 12 to 14x P/S premium and the orchestration thesis fully inverts the SaaSpocalypse. Bear case $150 to $200 if AI seat-erosion is right and growth halves. 10 year math: no company target past 2030. Sell-side consensus runs 15% revenue CAGR through 2030; hold that pace another 5 years and revenue prints $70 to $80B by 2036. 8 to 10x P/S puts base $540 to $770. Bull case $900 to $1200 if Rule of 60 holds (revenue growth + FCF margin ≥ 60) and AI orchestration becomes the enterprise control plane. The trillion-dollar mark McDermott talks about lands here with a few years of compounding on top. Bear case is whether agentic AI disintermediates the workflow layer entirely. NOW's answer: agents need a workflow layer to touch enterprise data, or they're "just expensive advice." That's what you're underwriting. 12M is where I actually do the work. Base case $115 (+23% from $93.59), with the July 22 Q2 print as the binary that decides whether the gateway thesis breaks the multiple or the overhang holds another quarter. Past 3 years I trust the company's own targets more than my own model. Posting the framework, not the call.

@RealSimpleAriel 11.5 ATR%s above 50DMA. cool, cool, cool, cool... all good here.😕😯😲

I meant $700* $MU

@alphaticaio QQQ hit 80 RSI, seems like we have to visit the 161.8 Fib soon

"RSI is overbought. Time to sell." Half of FinTwit posted some version of this today. We tested it. They love to sell fear. Here is what the data actually says: 22 years. 5,672 trading days. Every time SPY's RSI crossed above 70. RSI > 70 forward returns are positive. 20-day forward: +0.52%, 69% win rate. Bootstrap confidence interval excludes zero. This is not a sell signal. It's a momentum confirmation. But here's the part that should change how you think about this. When RSI is above 70, the probability of a >3% drawdown in the next 20 days drops from 39% to 26%. The probability of a >5% drawdown drops from 22% to 13%. The market is not more dangerous when it's "overbought." It's less dangerous. Overbought markets are safer markets. The real warning level is RSI > 80. It's happened 18 times in 22 years and 20-day forward returns are -2.92% with a 17% win rate. That's the actual sell signal, and it's extremely rare. FinTwit uses 70. The data says 80. The hidden edge nobody talks about: when RSI stays above 70 for 4-10 days and then drops back below, 20-day forward returns are +1.68% with an 84% win rate. The "failure" of the overbought condition is the best buy signal in the dataset. 37 events. Bootstrap validated. Current SPY RSI: 63.3. Not overbought by any definition. Overbought doesn't mean what you think it means. RSI > 70 is a momentum confirmation, not a sell signal. The market is safest when FinTwit is most afraid of it. $SPY $SPX $QQQ

@TradingSingular It is rare in my experience to encounter a statistical model calling for a 0% probability of anything, and if that event occurs hours after such a call, I ususally tell the model to go sit in the corner for a while and think about what it did.

$SOXX predictability tool says there is 0% chance we go up from here in the next 1 to 20 weeks. Our new Indicator analyzes every time in history a ticker has traded at current levels. For $SOXL, it only happened once - price fell -6% in a week. Could this time be different?

@MarshaCollier @bryan_johnson Not medical advice: Generically speaking, if there is active inflammation, that needs to be managed first before heat is used. That’s just one example of many. Proper diagnosis is important.

@StevenJDell @bryan_johnson Which of these things make matters worse?

I started milking my eyelids. Here's the situation. My eyes have been dry/irritated/red for the past year or so. I started using eye drops to moisten and it didn't make a difference. So I went to see an eye doctor. The source of the problem is that my meibomian glands, the tiny oil glands lining the eyelids, were clogged up. Without the meibum they secrete, the tear film on my eye evaporates in seconds which is bad for eye health. We're not sure of the cause of the dysregulation. We have few theories that we're looking into. Taking a closer look with infrared meibography, the imagery showed that my meibomian glands were congested, distorted, and partially dropped out. This is bad news because atrophied glands don't regrow! It's situations like this that makes me wonder why we do not have a better operating manual for the human body. How could I have prevented this from happening and why didn't I catch this sooner!? I did additional tests to assess the damage and my situation now. The Schirmer test (paper strip measuring tear wetting over 5 minutes) came back at 6 and 6.5 mm. A borderline reading consistent with mild dry eye. A healthy reading is typically 15 mm or above. Here's what I'm doing now to try and nurture my remaining glands back to good health: 1) Forma RF, Radiofrequency (microwave) heat applied from outside the lid, melting the obstruction. 2) LipiFlow, a device that sandwiches each eyelid: heat from the inside, pulsed pressure from the outside, squeezing the obstruction out. 12 minutes, both eyes. 3) Both capped at 41°C, not the standard 42°C, to spare eyelid collagen and elastin. No thinning skin, no premature sagging. 4) IPL around the eyes that shut down the abnormal blood vessels feeding chronic lid inflammation, the engine of MGD. 5) Manual gland milking, the doctor squeezes the lid margin between two instruments, forcing the plugs out. Hard, pasty secretions came out initially. The second and third mechanical milking the glands are returning to a normal, expected oily state. 6) Daily upkeep includes warm compresses, lid hygiene, omega-3 to keep secretions thin and glands moving. My next check in is 3 weeks form now. My doctor mentioned that meibomian gland dysfunction in her patients has increased since Covid, likely driven by the rise in screen time. When staring at screens for long stretches, people blink less frequently and less completely. Normal blink rate is roughly 15-20 times per minute but drops significantly during screen use. Incomplete blinks mean the meibomian glands don't get fully expressed, which over time contributes to gland dysfunction and evaporative dry eye. It's worth you getting checked for this and a good practice generally to make sure your eyes are in good health.

@gfc4 @TheOneLanceB We use robotic assisted steps right now. Absent a regulatory environment, more autonomous surgery could occur in 7-10 years. With the regulatory approvals needed, more like 15-20 years. Human completely out of the loop, who knows? But who pays for all this $$$$$ tech?

@StevenJDell @TheOneLanceB What's your guess on when

Imagine if you went to college to be a graphic designer and pursued a career accordingly. Then, in the course of a few months, AI basically makes your job obsolete.

@TheOneLanceB @gfc4 I'm an eye surgeon. I've worked with several robotic technologies. I'm familiar with current state-of-the-art. I've also trained many eye surgeons. My conclusion: robotic-assisted/performed surgery will definitely happen, but adoption will take much longer than you expect.

@gfc4 Imagine the leap of faith one needs to go pre-med right now, take on huge debt, and think they want to be an MD 14 years from now and what the world will look like then…

@bryan_johnson I cover some of this in my podcast with Peter Attia. Very complex topic. Heat is usually good. Sun exposure also factors in. Too little sun: bad. Too much: bad. Diet also factors in, but we see this in vegans, carnivores, and omnivores. Generally, very high Omega 3 is good.

@bryan_johnson I'm an eye surgeon. I've published a fair bit on this topic. We've actually met...in Aspen. Info you posted is generally very accurate, but needs to be individualized. In some cases, some of the things mentioned make matters worse. Complex topic. Proper diagnosis is key.

@alphaticaio 140-150 incoming

@StevenJDell Yes.

🚨🚨🚨Earnings Quality Alert on TKO: The Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal: 1/6. BEARISH. The content business is great. The financial structure is not. What the accounting shows: -Revenue tripled since FY2023 to $4.74B. UFC and WWE are printing money. -But net income attributable to common shareholders: $195M. Not the $550M headline. -A $6B+ stake held by a single entity sits above common shareholders in the capital structure. -Management's internal accounting signals have flagged bearish every year since the merger — and the concern is accelerating. -Common equity: $3.74B. The external stake: $6.03B. The structure owns more of this business than you do. The 52-week return is +20%. YTD it's given back nearly half of that. The content moat is real. The question is who it's being built for. $TKO #WWE $SPY

@Bluekurtic $SOX is also 10.61x ATR% above its 50DSMA. A level never seen in the past 25 years. Although it did hit this several times in Spring 2000, with about 10% more gain before capitulation. Allowing the 50DSMA to catch up would be healthy.

Semiconductor index is now at a level where it has spent only 101 days, or 1.29% of time, since inception. $SOX is over 48% above its 200DMA, most stretched since dot-com era. Timing is uncertain, but in all 3 prior cases, these parabolic signals were always undercut. Always.