tunshi

新闻：1.特朗普要求伊朗尽快回应美方提案。2.伊朗总统宣布和最高领袖会面，气氛和谐。3.巴基斯坦为下周可能举行的谈判做准备。这些最新动态意味着，伊朗和谈派获得最高领袖背书，强硬派被压制，伊朗同意和谈成为共识。伊朗在法国航母加入护航行动，手上的海峡筹码快速贬值，此时妥协谈判换取利益是最优解。美国方面，特朗普急需在访华前取得伊朗胜利，增加和中国的谈判筹码。作为主要调解人的巴基斯坦也在积极准备。三个消息在同一天发生，意味着谈判窗口全面打开，双方未来10天取得短期协议框架是大概率的。

和亲戚们吃饭聊天，发现我是家族第一个靠交易吃饭的人。往上三代都是面朝黄土背朝天。我不种地了，不打工了，要靠脑子赚钱。没人能给我指路，每个决定都没有参照物。栽跟头时，风凉话能淹死人。吃到肉了，也没人替我高兴，在他们眼里，我跟赌桌上拍筹码的没区别。支撑我的不是什么理想，是太清楚祖辈那条路的尽头，一身力气换一口饭，那是死局。体力有极限，天灾不讲理，靠卖力气翻盘？没门。 我不甘心。选了条更难的路，靠脑子吃饭，理解规则，捕捉别人看不见的信号。 没人走过，所以我是第一个。阶级的壁垒不是一代人能打破的。总得有人踩坑、头破血流、被嘲笑、撑不住。那我就是那个破风手。 哪怕跌得底裤不剩，倒在黎明前最黑的地方我也认了。 因为我的孩子会知道，他老子不是认命的人。这个家族出过一个疯子，不种地，不打工，不看任何人脸色，把筹码押在自己的判断上。他可能输过，但不是庸人。 最终，我成功了。

@Nuanran01 捕捉别人看不见的信号，把筹码压在自己的判断上，最终还成功了，厉害👍

新闻：特朗普宣布暂停护航行动，等待和伊朗达成重大协议。同时卢比奥宣布对伊朗的进攻行动已经停止。这意味着昨天的局势走向谈判的判断是正确的，今天美国的行为已经实实在在的走向谈判桌。伊朗也在用一定的妥协退让来换取和平的时间。#美伊局势 #霍尔姆兹海峡

最新消息：1.美国防长说停火还没结束。2.美国参谋长说，伊朗的攻击未达到重启大规模作战门槛。结合过去的消息，意味着美国和伊朗的冲突走向缓和，未来10天，谈判窗口开启概率上升。

Hey @shayne_coplan You’ve built - and continue to build - an excellent product. But right now, there’s real chaos happening on a number of markets in @Polymarket In the event polymarket.com/event/us-x-ira…, UMA token stakers are currently voting on the outcome. It’s ridiculous that the fate of a market with $120 million in trading volume is being decided by holders of a token with a market cap of only $42 million. If you subtract the exchanges and the team holdings, the actual stakers probably control no more than $20 million worth of tokens. And these holders who influence Polymarket resolutions are very likely participating in the bets themselves. That means the most interested parties are the ones deciding the outcome. How can they possibly make a fair and honest decision when their own profits are on the line? Is this really the kind of decentralization we were aiming for, Shayne? It would be much better if you appointed 7 anonymous experts who would vote on disputed markets in a balanced and objective way - instead of letting random UMA token holders decide the fate of a billion-dollar platform! By the way, I remember @Tyler_Did_It ran into a similar problem about a year ago. Below, I’ll explain why this market should resolve as NO: What actually happened on the evening of April 7, 2026: •Around 6:30–7:00 PM ET, President Trump posted on Truth Social. He offered to suspend U.S. bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks, but only if Iran agreed to the complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
He called it a “double-sided ceasefire” and described Iran’s 10-point plan as a “workable basis for negotiations.” Trump added that most issues were nearly resolved and the two weeks would be used to finalize a full agreement. •Iran’s Supreme National Security Council released its statement on April 8 (after midnight ET). They accepted the two-week ceasefire but framed it as a “great victory,” claiming the U.S. had fully accepted their 10-point plan. Why this is NOT a full official agreement: •It was a conditional, unilateral announcement by Trump — the pause in strikes depends on Iran immediately reopening the Strait. •No signed joint document or official bilateral statement exists. •The White House later clarified that Iran’s original 10-point plan was “fundamentally unserious,” “unacceptable,” and “thrown in the garbage.” What Trump called “workable” was a revised version negotiated via Pakistan. •Both sides interpret the deal very differently (especially on sanctions, uranium enrichment, Lebanon, and U.S. troop withdrawal).

Hezbollah is not equivalent to Lebanon. The platform condones whales manipulating UMA voting, engaging in illegal settlements, and robbing users of their funds. #FJraU3C" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/israel-x… @Polymarket @zachxbt @real_clazzy

.@shayne_coplan @Polymarket has become unusable, and some traders like @CarOnPolymarket are scamming the market by working with @bosaurum, your head of markets. Below is a screenshot with proof. This is evident in how @bosaurum just misresolved a market with $3.5M in volume by conflating Hezbollah with Lebanon. They are not the same entity and the rules are clear. He also fat-fingered the resolution right before this one. Two errors back to back at this scale. This needs a re-review. This is not about money, this is about what is right and wrong. I am hoping you and the @Polymarket team can review this one. Many good people lost money by reading the market rules clearly. polymarket.com/event/israel-x…

@Polymarket Polymarket’s real flaw: whale voting power decides outcomes, not rules or facts. #W8bEukv" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/israel-x…

JUST IN: U.S. commander warns Taiwan not to “starve the chicken” by delaying its defense budget.

Polymarket’s real flaw: whale voting power decides outcomes, not rules or facts. The platform turns a blind eye and does nothing. We urge everyone who can bring this to justice to expose them. We have ample evidence and a victim support network. Example: #W8bEukv" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/israel-x… @cz_binance @rovercrc @intocryptoverse @lookonchain @IvanOnTech @zachxbt @brian_armstrong @CathieDWood @saylor @APompliano @cvpayne @EleanorTerrett @FoxBusiness @CNNBusiness @cnnbrk @FoxNews @BreakingNews @seanhannity @NateSilver538 @jaketapper @kaitlancollins @BretBaier @DanaBashCNN @JesseWatters @EleanorTerrett @CNNPR @LeadCnn5936

@Polymarket Your rules and facts don't determine the outcome; the whale's voting power does. Example: #W8bEukv" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/israel-x…

79% chance Anthropic provides Mythos to the U.S. government. polymarket.com/event/will-ant…

NEW: Japanese finance minister to meet with major banks over cybersecurity risks tied to Claude Mythos.

@Polymarket Your rules and facts don't determine the outcome; the whale's voting power does. Example: #W8bEukv" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/israel-x…

To all friends who believe that rules and facts will ultimately triumph over manipulation, please join us. We will never give up, and we will make sure they cannot ignore us. We will uphold justice and reclaim our rightful rights! discord.gg/kYmrxFk4

@Polymarket This market was resolved against the facts. market：#W8bEukvPolymarket" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/israel-x…’s real flaw: whale voting power decides outcomes, not rules or facts.

JUST IN: JD Vance’s trip to Pakistan reportedly remains undecided.

If we win, I’ll put up $3 million to reward everyone who fought alongside us. Never give up, and we will win. @Polymarket

@Polymarket This market was resolved against the facts. market：#W8bEukv" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/israel-x… Polymarket’s real flaw: whale voting power decides outcomes, not rules or facts.

🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: What will Trump say during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance? polymarket.com/event/what-wil…

@Polymarket 不是“我输了不服”，是平台争议裁决被操纵：#W8bEukv" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/israel-x… 这个市场裁决结果违背事实，平台确毫不作为。这暴露了了Polymarket 争议裁决有巨大的漏洞。决定最终结果的不是规则和事实，是鲸鱼的投票权。

Polymarket 的争议裁决模式有巨大漏洞 市场：Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? 链接：#W8bEukv" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/israel-x… 鲸鱼操纵投票，通过违反事实的结算结果，收割用户。规则和事实清晰无比，真主党不同于黎巴嫩，polymarket对此毫不作为，无视用户投诉。

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