Texas Hedger

@Bruce_Markets In this world - aren’t PC total returns while disappointing still likely positive over the time frame given dist yields? And something like OTF seems to already be pricing a cumulative default rate (~15-20%) of this magnitude already?

15% Default Rate!? On Bloomberg TV yesterday, I was asked the question: How high can default rates go for Private Credit given its heavy concentration to software? Please realize that while 15% default rate in Software is alarming, one can arrive at 15% in various ways: 1. 5% per year for three straight years (2026/2027/2028) = 15% 2. 15% in 2027 (0% in 2026 & 2028); or many various other combinations I have been warning about the risk to Software for ~2 years now - I am not sure how this will precisely play out, but 15% is not an alarmist view given what we know (highly leveraged software companies financed by Direct Lending with peak valuations in 2020-2021). Remember, Private Equity has all the upside, MOICs can be higher than underwritten with the inclusion of AI solutions, so PE can afford a few losses in a portfolio and still win. Private Credit only receives par when the loan matures, so it must be very careful to avoid the downside. 15% default rate within the non-IG leveraged software sector financed by Direct Lending Funds/BDCs means that 85% of the software companies will not default. What percentage do you think defaults in the 2026-2028 time frame? I take 'the over." With that said, I am not worried about larger contagion in the banking sector. For the full interview watch below: bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…

@3F_Research @WarrenPies @fernavid i believe the biggest chunk of the move lower if this is bbg data was the index reconstitution last week - revisions still clearly negative but magnitude not nearly as big as it looks (so far)

Financial Sector forward earnings have collapsed. cc: @fernavid

@LongShortTrader 9/2018

Curious, does anyone know whether/when the last time Barron’s featured inflation/deflation as their cover page?

@Samir_Madani What if kingdom/MBS use this as reason to pivot East? As US/KSA relationship erodes China becomes bigger part of future?

@junkbondinvest Does it add anything in the long run? Lowers your basis and resets the clock on LT gains with the new buy though guess if it’s a LT position monetizing the loss could outweigh

Does anyone else do this?

@pearkes Very cool - I’m guessing delivery costs for Pizza Hut w off premise sales + higher turnover in store at bell?

@BruceKamich @realmoney Melvin 3rd largest holder last filing season.. may be pressuring

Fair Isaac's Sharp Decline Does Not Bode Well for the Stock realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stoc… via @RealMoney

@HedgeyeDDale If own coins currently, pypl doesn’t let you transfer them in (only lets you hold coins bought there). SQ let’s you xfer in up to 10K $ value of bitcoin a week. If you’re like me and not messing around w cold storage- SQ prob best option to hold (but I use Gemini to trade fwiw)

@chamath $BBBY. Huge legacy FCF generator and still 10%+. Strong brand awareness but underinvested in tech/digital forever. covid has given new oppty to transform and return top line growth. New mgmt starting to do it

What's an interesting cash flowing public company that could be supercharged if I could get a hold of it and help revamp its technology and go to market?

@junkbondinvest $SNE

What was the last SOTP pitch that actually worked out well? Always sounds better in theory than actuality

@gregkellyusa @JoeBiden Maybe Greg wished he had a father who was there for him?

So HUNTER showed up? Of course he did. It’s like someone rang the cow bell for dinner. LOTS of money to be made! I’d go back underground HUNTER, and quick. ⁦@JoeBiden⁩ has NOT won, he’s not President-elect, and you’re in even Bigger trouble.

@conorsen And about to flip positive y/y

10-year breakevens closing in on late February levels:

@gregkellyusa What a clown. Taking a picture not of the platform but on the level in between that folks only would walk on if they’re transferring between levels to go from the blue line to the orange line. It’s always empty even in normal times and you know this.

This was the West 4th Street Subway Station during “rush hour” —-totally deserted. New York is dying thanks to totally incompetent leadership.

@WallStCynic Never mind - saw footnote/ got nothing

@WallStCynic Partially due to Mother’s Day on y/y numbers which usually spike for these guys? Last year was 5/12 vs 5/9 this year so could be noise on y/y comparisons

Much of the furious rally in a lot of stocks has been due to w-o-w increases in economic activity. That’s why these Darden numbers caught my eye. The improvements are beginning to slow/stop at their restaurants. $DRI

@RealTianZeng Awesome explanation. Question - with USO structured as partnership, if the NAV did get below 0, would losses pass through to holders? So could you actually be on hook for negative prices

@JavierBlas @JKempEnergy Could Saudi be doing this because of China? Saudi worried Trump re-election odds hurt by virus, and democratic admin likely less pro-Kingdom. China is biggest beneficiary of hurting US Econ (and with it trumps reelection odds) , and is now importing cheap oil as nation ramps up

INCENDIARY LANGUAGE: A group of top Republican senators are accusing Saudi Arabia and Russia of "economic warfare" against the U.S. | #OOTT #OilPriceWar #SaudiArabia #Russia h/t @JKempEnergy Full letter below, and link here: energy.senate.gov/public/index.c…

@RaoulGMI I’m total tourist here. but what about separating bull steepening vs bear steepening - Different signals? Latest steepening in curve alongside 40bps higher in 10y seems different analogous to typical steepening into recession where 10y rallies. Curious your view - love your work

The yield curve steeping after an inversion is usually the recession signal. I know that's an unpopular view right now. Also, its completed a nice cup and handle. MM issues seem to be creating tightness that is translating to the real curve steepening (not just technical).

@SimonLack Agree re leverage (it’s a risk you know you’re taking) but structure not so sure. AMLP still a 7 billion fund with much worst structure.

MLP CEFs with their leverage, narrow focus and taxable structure are a dumb idea in today's market.

@Robostocks123 Dividend reinvestment

Did I read it correctly, Kelcy bought 4m units $et?